PGA DFS Projections and Picks: CIMB Classic 2017

Welcome to my PGA DFS machine learning model for the CIMB Classic. It should be a birdie-fest. For more on the course and key stats check out Matt Dulcan’s weekly article. The field consists of 78 golfers and has no cut, so probabilities to make the cut have been eliminated from the projections. Be sure to check out this week’s PGA podcast hosted by Matt Dulcan. We talk strategy and highlight our favorite players on the DraftKings slate.

CIMB Classic Projections

These projections are generated using a combination of statistical simulation and machine learning algorithms. More than 40 factors go into the model, including long-term normalized round score, driving accuracy, driving distance, the proximity of approach shots, temperature and wind velocity, to name a few. Three columns: ToPar, DK.Pts and Win%, are generated using three separate algorithms which all draw from the same underlying data. Explanation of each column:
  • ToPar is the player’s average score relative to par for the tournament.
  • DK.Pts is the average number of DraftKings points that the player will score.
  • Win% is the percentage/probability of the golfer finishing in the top 10.
  • DK.Sal is the golfer’s DraftKings salary.
  • DK.Value is the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

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By John Gambill | @GamblinJohnny | Archive