NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections: Kansas

NASCAR heads to Kansas for the final race of the second round of the playoffs. As usual, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks and model projections along with ownership projections for Kansas.

The NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer will updated shortly with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find a range of outcomes for each driver, and the NASCAR Sim Scores App has all your favorite driver comps to get a range of outcomes for each driver.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Kansas.

NASCAR DFS Model Projections – Kansas

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race, hence why you won’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 32nd.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Martin Truex Jr16.3845.3519.8553.491080048.1%
Kevin Harvick26.4745.5924.5156.71960034.8%
Matt Kenseth39.4733.6619.2646.10900013.1%
Denny Hamlin410.5020.678.1736.2588008.4%
Daniel Suarez510.797.359.3833.95740016.7%
Erik Jones612.115.752.6828.56800019.6%
Kyle Busch76.3421.3318.3452.831030040.3%
Jamie McMurray810.201.266.4335.14840012.0%
Clint Bowyer911.741.002.1530.85870018.9%
Brad Keselowski109.6321.0416.2248.101010013.7%
Austin Dillon1114.601.711.1026.7877009.7%
Jimmie Johnson1212.152.799.6237.22990012.7%
Kyle Larson136.5815.6913.6854.61980029.8%
Chase Elliott1412.224.8811.8740.72910011.5%
Kurt Busch1513.370.927.0536.02810021.3%
Michael McDowell1618.690.560.8623.1861009.3%
Joey Logano1713.5922.7410.7844.90930012.8%
Ryan Newman1815.400.991.3032.09760012.1%
Dale Earnhardt Jr1917.211.042.1929.9383009.8%
Chris Buescher2019.210.251.2526.27670017.7%
Kasey Kahne2117.870.822.4130.67820012.5%
Danica Patrick2221.780.300.7422.8870007.5%
Paul Menard2321.120.780.9125.4065007.3%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2417.921.131.4833.18780012.7%
Aric Almirola2522.550.310.7924.3663009.2%
AJ Allmendinger2621.270.391.1228.13640023.0%
David Ragan2723.590.090.3424.01590012.5%
Trevor Bayne2820.950.350.8130.59720027.3%
Ty Dillon2920.160.450.8433.22680023.6%
Matt DiBenedetto3025.280.170.1323.5456006.5%
Landon Cassill3127.530.060.2620.0958009.9%
Brett Moffitt3229.680.100.1216.7250007.1%
Gray Gaulding3330.410.080.1616.2849001.9%
Corey Lajoie3429.220.080.1519.6655003.4%
Cole Whitt3528.220.040.1022.6254004.1%
BJ McLeod3631.120.110.2317.9046002.8%
Reed Sorenson3730.140.050.1320.8052001.7%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3831.210.070.1019.6548001.6%
Derrike Cope3932.190.070.1218.7045002.2%
Ryan Blaney4015.676.9515.9862.39850050.8%

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks.

NASCAR DFS Picks – Cash Games

Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – Truex starts on the pole, has secured his spot to the next round, and wants to secure more playoff points. He’s been the most dominant driver all year, especially at 1.5-mile ovals, and led nearly 40 percent of the laps in the first Kansas race this year. He’s a lock for cash.

Ryan Blaney ($8500) – Blaney did not make a qualifying run thanks to not making it through pre-qualifying technical inspection, so he starts from the 40th spot. Blaney posted the fastest single lap speed in final practice, and led over 20 percent of the first Kansas race this year. He’s an auto-start in cash.

Trevor Bayne ($7200) – Bayne has had his hiccups this year, but the 1.5-mile tracks have been his strongest. When not encountering problems, Bayne has an average finish of 12.8 at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2017 including a 10th place finish at the first Kansas race. He has the 19th best driver rating at 1.5-mile tracks this year. He practiced 22nd best over 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour, so lock him in in cash thanks to his 28th place starting position.

NASCAR DFS Picks – GPPs

Kevin Harvick ($9600) – We get Harvick at a bit of a discount this weekend, priced down at only $9600. Harvick was fastest in the 10-lap average in both post-qualifying practice sessions, and second place wasn’t really close in either session. Harvick led over 20 percent of the first race at Kansas this year, and with a second place starting spot, he’s a good bet to do so again.

Erik Jones ($8000) Jones is an interesting GPP play this weekend. I could see him grabbing the lead at some point through pit stops, strategy, or just a ton of cautions, and even if he doesn’t he has top-three finishing potential. He’s a high-risk, high reward play, that I’d only use in big-field GPPs.

Clint Bowyer ($8700) – Kansas is Bowyer’s home track, and I know he wants to win badly here. Bowyer had the second fastest 10-lap average in Happy Hour, right behind his teammate Harvick. I really think the Stewart-Haas cars have found something this weekend, including Kurt Busch who posted his 10-lap average later in the session when it was harder to post a fast speed. A SHR stack isn’t out of the question in GPPs. One word of caution, I probably wouldn’t play both Jones and Bowyer in the same lineup, because they have some negative correlation.

Chris Buescher ($6700) – I think Ty Dillon will end up being pretty chalky at $6800 in his 29th place starting spot, and since I mentioned Bayne in cash, he will probably be chalk as well. I think Buescher is an interesting GPP play, as is his teammate A.J. Allmendinger. Both JTG Daugherty cars looked fast in final practice over a single lap, with Buescher turning in an 20th place 10-lap average as well. That might keep people a bit off of him, but that 10-lap average came later in the session, when it’s harder to post fast speeds. He has a top-20 car, and with some luck and some other drivers wrecking, could be in contention for a top-12 finish.

NASCAR DFS Fades

Michael McDowell ($6100) – McDowell qualified too far forward relative to his practice times, and figures to go backward this weekend.

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Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
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