DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 7

The Fantasy Football Ghost pegged several top-notch plays in Week 6. See who he likes for FanDuel cash plays in Week 7.

FanDuel players, welcome to Week 7! Ignoring an unfortunate injury to Jameis Winston last week, I tallied a multiplier of 1.87 times value last week. This was a hair under my established weekly target of two times value (a mark I’m convinced I would have been able to achieve if Winston had stayed in given how well Ryan Fitzpatrick performed in relief). Deshaun Watson, Antonio Brown, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins were all top-five performers for their position last week and were all featured in last week’s column. Let’s see which of this week’s players keep that streak alive. 

FanDuel Cash Plays for Week 7

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan – $8,700

New England’s pass defense has been atrocious this season and appears unlikely to improve as Matt Ryan comes to Foxborough. The Patriots rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass, allowing an average of nearly 325 passing yards per game and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, both the highest in the NFL. New England is also giving up the most FanDuel points in the league to opposing quarterbacks with 25.0 points allowed. When you factor in the massive over/under for the game, which stands at 55 points, a full TD higher than the second closest over/under on the slate, you’ve got yourself a recipe for a very tantalizing game. If Ryan is simply able to hit the 25.0 average that New England has allowed thus far, then Ryan will be sitting on a cool 2.87 times value. This play screams out value.

Marcus Mariota – $8,200

You’d be hard pressed to lose value at the QB position by playing whoever is facing the Browns. This week’s lucky contestant is Marcus Mariota. Even priced at $8,200 dollars, he looks to be an excellent value. Cleveland is giving up the second-most FanDuel points to QBs, surrendering 21.2 points per outing. This is directly related to the fact that the Browns have the league’s worst defensive DVOA against the pass. The defense has allowed 2.3 passing TDs per game, which ties them with the Patriots for the most in the NFL. Cleveland has also allowed two rushing TDs to opposing quarterbacks, the most in the NFL, while Mariota has rushed for three TDs of his own, also the most in the league.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson – $6,300

Reports of Adrian Peterson’s fantasy death may have been a bit premature. However, I must admit, it feels incredibly weird suggesting Peterson after just one game as the Cardinals’ lead running back, but the Rams rush defense is among the worst in the league and his price is just too enticing to ignore. Los Angeles is giving up the second-most FanDuel points to RB1s this year with an average of 17.7 being posted per game. Peterson must simply surpass 12.6 points to double his value, a mark that both Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory easily surpassed last week. The Rams are allowing an average of 139.5 rushing yards per game, the fourth most in the NFL, while also surrendering 1.3 rushing TDs per game, tying them for the most in the league. Since Arizona has very little going for it other than its new found rushing game, expect Peterson to get a lot of work.

Carlos Hyde – $6,700

Carlos Hyde isn’t just the focal point of San Francisco’s offense, he is the offense. The 49ers have a whole lot of problems on the offensive side of the ball, but Hyde, no matter what San Francisco’s coaching staff says, is simply indispensable. Meanwhile, Dallas is the best possible opponent an opposing RB can hope for. The Cowboys are giving up a league-worst 18.8 FanDuel points per game to RB1s this season. Dallas not only has the worst defensive DVOA against the rush, they also have the league’s worst defensive DVOA against RB1s through the air, allowing 7.8 targets to the position, good for an average of 55.5 receiving yards. Thankfully for San Francisco, Hyde is one of the higher volume receiving backs in the league, ranking 11th in both targets and receptions. The 49ers are six-point underdogs, the biggest deficit in this slate, so they’ll need Hyde contributing heavily in all aspects of the offense.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – $8,800

Much of what I discussed earlier with Matt Ryan holds true for Julio Jones against the Patriots. As the No. 1 target for Ryan, Jones will benefit greatly from New England’s porous pass defense. The Patriots are giving up the eighth-most FanDuel points to WR1s this season, averaging 13.8 points per game. New England also has the second-worst defensive DVOA against WR1s in the league, allowing an average of nearly seven targets and 94.8 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots rank dead last in average yards allowed per target to WRs, giving up 9.8 yards per attempt to the position. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the fourth-highest success rate when targeting their WRs at 54 percent. It bears repeating, the over/under for this game is through the roof.

Rishard Matthews – $5,500

Rishard Matthews is the closest thing that Tennessee has to a WR1 at this point. For many of the same reasons I promoted Julio Jones, the same can be said for Matthews with Marcus Mariota. The Browns are giving up the third-most FanDuel points to WR1s, allowing an average of 15.9 points per game. Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in terms of defensive DVOA against WR1s and 28th in yards per pass attempt to the WR position overall, allowing 8.8 yards per attempt. Matthews need only to score 11 FanDuel points to double his value. Considering his opponent, very little stands in the way.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham – $5,8600

Jimmy Graham confounds me, I’ll admit that right out of the gate. Every time I think that this could be the week he blows the doors off the field, he tends to fall flat on his face. I just want to give everyone fair warning before I go into all the reasons he’s a good play this week.

In spite of that glowing introduction, Graham’s opponent, the Giants, are in an absolute tailspin.1 To make matters worse for New York, the tight end position has given them nothing but headaches all year long. They’ve allowed an average of 12 FanDuel points per game to the position, the second highest amount in the league and the most in this slate of games. New York is allowing an average of 9.1 targets for 71.6 yards to TEs, the third-highest total in the NFL. If Graham can’t take advantage of this match up, then there is no rhyme or reason to his performance going forward.

Hunter Henry – $5,200

If you’re looking for consistency from the TE position then you need look no further than Hunter Henry who has scored 11.5, 11.7 and 11.5 FanDuel points in three of the past four weeks. Simply continuing that streak would already double his value, but, with Denver coming to town, Henry could be poised to seize even greater value this week. The Broncos have the third-worst defensive DVOA against TEs this year, permitting an average of 7.9 targets for 67.7 receiving yards.2 The Chargers depend heavily on their TEs as well, so the matchup is highly exploitable with 55 percent of all targets to the position being completed, the tenth-highest percentage of all teams.

Subscribe to the best.

  1. Or at least were until their upset of Denver.  (back)
  2. The Broncos are allowing the third most FanDuel points to tight ends in the NFL.  (back)
By The Fantasy Football Ghost | @TheFFGhost | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply