FanDuel GPP Value Plays Review of Week 4
In this early-week article, I review my FanDuel GPP value plays from week 4.
A “hit” or “miss” is based on my value success formula, which can be found in my GPP value plays article. It is important to remember that in this review we are interested in refining our process, and not just doing hindsight analysis.
Week 4 Review
- Tyrod Taylor ($7,100; 12.48 points) – Miss
With just 12.48 points, Taylor was a miss. I liked Taylor going into this game due to his rushing upside (eight attempts per game) and the number of passes he was expected to throw above his season average (26.3) while having to catch-up against Atlanta. While the Bills’ defense had been strong year-to-date, they hadn’t faced an offense like Atlanta, who scored 30+ points in 9 of their last 11 home games. But Atlanta ended up only scoring 16 points against Buffalo, and McCoy and Tolbert were able to grind out the clock with 28 rushing attempts. While Taylor’s seven rushing attempts were around his season average, he only had 20 pass attempts. Ultimately, this game script was opposite from what I expected. Moving forward, I’ll play Taylor against man defenses, but avoid him versus zone defenses that can better defend running QBs.1
- Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda – Cam Newton ($7,300; 34.04 points); Deshaun Watson ($7,300; 43.72 points)
Newton was my “others considered” QB this week. Even with his poor play going into this game, I properly identified that this was a bet on low ownership (2.1 percent) in a tremendous matchup (330 passing yards and 2.6 TDs per game allowed). While I had exposure to him, I didn’t have the stones to recommend Newton as my top GPP value play. Going forward, this result is more about how bad the Patriots defense is than a Newton resurgence.
On the other hand, I had zero exposure to Watson. I severely underestimated the rookie’s ability to have a second straight top performance in another good matchup against Tennessee’s 24th ranked (DVOA) pass defense. Going forward, I am likely to attack passing games against the Titans. Watson has to be on my radar now, but I am skeptical to chance the points with higher ownership.
- Correctly Faded – Trevor Siemian ($7,500; 11.26 points)
Even with a great matchup on paper against the Raiders, Siemian was a dud. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas still have fantasy ceilings due to their condensed target share, but Siemian will rarely need to air it out with Denver’s stout defense.
- Joe Mixon ($5,600; 6.8 points) – Miss
Everything lined up for Mixon to have a big game. The Bengals got out to an early lead (21-0 at halftime) giving Mixon positive game script the entire second half, he received the necessary volume (17 carries, four receptions, 61.7 percent RB touch share), and Cleveland’s DT Danny Shelton was ruled inactive. Despite positive game script and volume, he was ineffective with his touches (48 yards, 0 TDs). Going forward, Mixon is the lead RB for the Bengals (back-to-back games with >60 percent RB touch share). With that amount of volume Mixon will remain in GPP consideration, but his ineffectiveness in this ideal game script is noted.
- Mike Gillislee ($6,000; 4.9 points) – Miss
The Patriots never got out to a big lead like I was hoping for. Because Gillislee has zero passing game involvement, he needs carries to have fantasy value. With the game close throughout and the Patriots trailing at times, this was a poor game for Gillislee to rack up points. However, Gillslee did see one carry at the 10-yard line and one at the 1-yard line. With the Patriots projected to be one of the top scoring teams each week, Gillislee’s TD potential must always be considered in GPPs on FanDuel, especially if his salary remains low.
- Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda – Bilal Powell ($6,100; 27 points); Lamar Miller ($6,000)
Two players that I will likely never roster on FanDuel had big games this week. Even if Matt Forte is inactive, I will rarely look to roster Powell who is a better play on full PPR sites, as his TD probability is low (because of the low implied team totals). As for Lamar Miller, either Watson’s dual-threat ability and Fuller’s field-stretching ability opened up this offense or this was a one-time unrepeatable performance. I don’t intend to chase the points unless proven wrong again.
- Correctly Faded – Christian McCaffrey ($6,400; 6.9 points)
I understood the appeal – he was a top prospect with electrifying play-making ability, coming off a nine-reception (11 targets), 117 yard game, in a tremendous matchup against the leaky Patriots defense. However, at 14 percent owned in the Sunday Million, his ownership was too high for a player better suited for a PPR format. The key takeaway going forward is that while the Patriots defense is terrible, Belichick schemes to take away the No. 1 threat.
- Tyrell Williams ($6,200; 20 points); Devin Funchess ($5,400; 22.5 points) – Hit
In addition to Funchess’s TD upside, I properly identified Tyrell “the gazelle” Williams and Funchess as GPP value plays due to their matchups. The Patriots are a defense I will continue to attack going forward, and the Eagles’ cornerbacks remain the weak spot in their defense.
- Rishard Matthews ($6,000; 6.4 points) – Miss
Even with the ideal garbage time game script, Matthews was only able to scrape together three receptions for 49 yards. Several factors contributed to this – Marcus Mariota had 10 pass attempts before leaving the game due to injury, Titans QBs combined for four turnovers (thus taking away offensive possessions), and the Titans were dominated in time of possession (20:19 vs 39:41, and only 41 offensive snaps). Playing Matthews was a bet he would score a TD, and he was unable to find the paint in Week 4.
- Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda – Will Fuller ($4,500; 17.9 points)
See a theme here yet? I missed out on the Texans’ big day. Fuller’s Week 4 production was strange. One would think if Fuller hit GPP value it would be due to a long TD. However, it was actually two red zone TDs that lifted Fuller’s fantasy day. Moving forward, I will continue to value Fuller as a deep TD or bust play until he consistently proves otherwise.
- Correctly Faded – None at significant enough ownership to be worth mentioning without knit-picking
- Cameron Brate ($5,300; 16 points) – Hit
Oh, man, was I tilting when I saw O.J. Howard catch a wide-open pass and jog into the end zone for a 58 yard TD. However, my Brate selection ended up paying off with 4 receptions, 80 yards, and one TD. Like I said: Play. Tight. Ends. Against. The. Giants.
- Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda – Tyler Kroft ($4,900; 21.8 ponts)
Even with the good matchup against the Browns, Kroft wasn’t on my radar because he didn’t see a single target against the Packers in Week 3 despite Tyler Eifert’s absence. The Browns are another team we will be targeting tight ends against moving forward.
- Correctly Faded – Jared Cook ($5,500; 6.1 points)
Even with the Broncos being 25th in DVOA against TEs going into the week, I will rarely play someone on the road in Denver. After Cook scored a TD in primetime in Week 3, I thought that his ownership would be too high for a player who has been nothing but inconsistent throughout his career.
Let me know how your FanDuel GPPs went @Michael_Dubner