Advice

Early GLSP Projections – McKinnon and Fournette to Remain Hot

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

Through five weeks, the “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of five and a half points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections, or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP has recorded an average absolute difference of six and a half points through five Weeks. The RB and WR GLSPs have been off by an average absolute difference of five and a half points and the TE GLSP by under five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.1

A Couple of Notes

I pulled Week 5 data Monday morning, so those results from Monday night’s game did not get included when running the model for Week 6. As opposed to using a player’s most recent 16 games in the comparable matchup searches, I limited to 12. 2017 data is becoming more meaningful so I want it to be weighed more heavily into the process going forward.2

Quarterback

The QB GLSP loved Deshaun Watson in Weeks 4 and 5. Unsurprisingly, it places him with one of the strongest overall projections for his Week 6 matchup against the Browns. Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers round out the week’s top tier of passers.

Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles could continue as his projected ceiling against the Chiefs is just 17 points. Opposing quarterback, Alex Smith, is not expected to have a great outing either; with a floor of five points, median of 13 and ceiling of 16.

Jacoby Brissett comes with an expectedly pessimistic floor of nine points, but his high-end projection is 22.

Popular streaming options Carson Palmer and Trevor Siemian don’t look like strong plays for the coming week.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGWK RK
Deshaun WatsonHOUCLE1522332310
Aaron RodgersGBMIN1622282110
Kirk CousinsWASSF1721242110
Drew BreesNODET1218241913
Matt RyanATLMIA1519241912
Joe FlaccoBALCHI1318211913
Tom BradyNENYJ1219221814
Jameis WinstonTBARI1316221714
Cam NewtonCARPHI1218201714
Sam BradfordMINGB1416201714
Matthew StaffordDETNO1216191616
Ben RoethlisbergerPITKC1216171518
Philip RiversLACOAK1014191519
Jacoby BrissettINDTEN914221518
Blake BortlesJAXLAR1314181516
Carson PalmerARITB813181319
Deshone KizerCLEHOU814191319
Eli ManningNYGDEN713181219
Carson WentzPHICAR611161120
Alex SmithKCPIT513161121
Jay CutlerMIAATL711131023
Brian HoyerSFWAS710151022
EJ ManuelOAKLAC58131023
Trevor SiemianDENNYG4714923
Jared GoffLARJAX51013924
Josh McCownNYJNE51012925
Matt CasselTENIND5812825

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette by and large have the strongest projections of the week. All three posses floors of 15 or more points and should go over 20 with average outings.

Jay Ajayi has a wide range of outcomes with a floor of just three points and ceiling of 17.  Carlos Hyde projects similarly and Frank Gore and Javorius Allen are also good candidates to ride the pine.

The GLSP took notice of Jerrick McKinnon’s strong performance on Monday night and projects him with a ceiling 20 points against the Packers. With an average projection of 12 points, he definitely should be in lineups this weekend.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Le'Veon BellPITKC1620292213
Kareem HuntKCPIT1621262112
Leonard FournetteJAXLAR1521252011
CJ AndersonDENNYG712221526
Doug MartinTBARI914201525
Todd GurleyLARJAX914201423
Bilal PowellNYJNE815191424
Jordan HowardCHIBAL914181422
Devonta FreemanATLMIA712161327
Melvin GordonLACOAK913191324
DeMarco MurrayTENIND812201326
Lamar MillerHOUCLE314211332
Tevin ColemanATLMIA710181329
Latavius MurrayMINGB812151326
Jerick McKinnonMINGB812201326
Rob KelleyWASSF312181330
Mark IngramNODET713161227
Ameer AbdullahDETNO711151228
Jay AjayiMIAATL39171133
Christian McCaffreyCARPHI59161134
Duke JohnsonCLEHOU510171135
Tarik CohenCHIBAL710151129
Isaiah CrowellCLEHOU611161128
Chris ThompsonWASSF59121035
James WhiteNENYJ48111036
Jonathan StewartCARPHI48151037
Theo RiddickDETNO57141035
Alvin KamaraNODET59121036
Carlos HydeSFWAS5913936
Wayne GallmanNYGDEN5911934
Terrance WestBALCHI5813937
Derrick HenryTENIND2811842
Orleans DarkwaNYGDEN1510852
Benjamin CunninghamCHIBAL0411854
Zach ZennerDETNO4511843
Frank GoreINDTEN4711739
LeGarrette BlountPHICAR1411753
Javorius AllenBALCHI3512744
Chris IvoryJAXLAR3610749
Jalen RichardOAKLAC358746
Jacquizz RodgersTBARI2510745
Marshawn LynchOAKLAC356650
Shane VereenNYGDEN368648
Matt BreidaSFWAS368648
Dion LewisNENYJ368648
Charcandrick WestKCPIT038657
Mike GillisleeNENYJ135561
Andre EllingtonARITB247552
Chris JohnsonARITB348549
Elijah McGuireNYJNE346550
Robert TurbinINDTEN246552
Jamaal CharlesDENNYG238554
Marlon MackINDTEN247551
Austin EkelerLACOAK248557
Kenjon BarnerPHICAR007569
Corey ClementPHICAR027463
Adrian PetersonNODET024470
Charles SimsTBARI036467
Kyle JuszczykSFWAS026464
Damien WilliamsMIAATL136463
D'Onta ForemanHOUCLE035365
Samaje PerineWASSF023373
Aaron JonesGBMIN023275
Alex CollinsBALCHI002284
Malcolm BrownLARJAX014274
Kerwynn WilliamsARITB014274
Devontae BookerDENNYG013279
Jamaal WilliamsGBMIN002187
Kenyan DrakeMIAATL002183
James ConnerPITKC001190

Wide Receiver

The WR GLSP likes Tamp Bay receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson against the Cardinals. Both members of the duo have top-1o average and floor projections. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth most points to opposing WRs in 2017.

Amari Cooper has been a disaster and projects with a floor of just three points against the Chargers. Sammy Watkins should also be started with caution. He projects with a floor of just five points and ceiling of 11.

Danny Amendola makes for a nice streaming option against the Jets and Ted Ginn has a ceiling of 20 points against the Lions.

Adam Thielen is expected to have a great game against the Packers and if Stefon Diggs is healthy, the Vikings receivers could feast. Jordy Nelson projects with a monster outing but Randall Cobb doesn’t look like a lock for flex consideration.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Jordy NelsonGBMIN1621312216
Julio JonesATLMIA1622272118
Michael ThomasNODET1321292121
Antonio BrownPITKC1318221823
Mike EvansTBARI1013261727
Golden TateDETNO818231632
Adam ThielenMINGB1014201628
DeSean JacksonTBARI1215211625
TY HiltonINDTEN1013161531
Pierre GarconSFWAS1013221532
Rishard MatthewsTENIND914181536
Ted GinnNODET913211535
Stefon DiggsMINGB615201442
Brandin CooksNENYJ815191439
Jarvis LandryMIAATL913181437
Davante AdamsGBMIN913181436
Michael CrabtreeOAKLAC814181434
Tyrell WilliamsLACOAK713191438
Robby AndersonNYJNE914171437
Keenan AllenLACOAK712181343
John BrownARITB912211341
DeAndre HopkinsHOUCLE812151244
Emmanuel SandersDENNYG611171248
Larry FitzgeraldARITB912141237
Tyreek HillKCPIT811141244
Kelvin BenjaminCARPHI412161246
Mohamed SanuATLMIA612151244
Jamison CrowderWASSF512151246
Donte MoncriefINDTEN514161246
Jaron BrownARITB712141241
Kenny StillsMIAATL813161241
Danny AmendolaNENYJ711151143
Martavis BryantPITKC612161149
Adam HumphriesTBARI612141146
Demaryius ThomasDENNYG511131054
Devante ParkerMIAATL610141051
Alshon JefferyPHICAR69131049
Sterling ShepardNYGDEN58131052
Allen HurnsJAXLAR58161049
Marvin JonesDETNO79141050
Deonte ThompsonCHIBAL59151052
Randall CobbGBMIN6912952
Amari CooperOAKLAC3716958
Devin FunchessCARPHI3812958
Sammy WatkinsLARJAX5811955
JJ NelsonARITB3814954
Michael FloydMINGB4712958
Chris HoganNENYJ2513865
Terrelle PryorWASSF5912855
Jeremy MaclinBALCHI4710860
Marqise LeeJAXLAR5711859
Cooper KuppLARJAX4711863
Jeremy KerleyNYJNE5811856
Ryan GrantWASSF5911859
Aldrick RobinsonSFWAS049876
Eric DeckerTENIND3611767
Taylor GabrielATLMIA4611765
Mike WallaceBALCHI3612762
Rashard HigginsCLEHOU468763
Brandon ColemanNODET3711765
Marquise GoodwinSFWAS3611768
Juju Smith-SchusterPITKC479763
Breshad PerrimanBALCHI2510768
Bruce EllingtonHOUCLE3610766
Josh BellamyCHIBAL3810765
Jermaine KearseNYJNE2410674
Will FullerHOUCLE458671
Robert WoodsLARJAX359673
Ricardo LouisCLEHOU369669
Travis BenjaminLACOAK248672
Bennie FowlerDENNYG269669
Albert WilsonKCPIT248672
TJ JonesDETNO3510675
Seth RobertsOAKLAC259671
Russell ShepardCARPHI3410676
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKLAC457670
Kamar AikenINDTEN347676
Torrey SmithPHICAR236578
Nelson AgholorPHICAR247579
Kendall WrightCHIBAL248580
Trent TaylorSFWAS246579
Tavon AustinLARJAX367571
Josh DoctsonWASSF027492
Geronimo AllisonGBMIN027491
Jarius WrightMINGB125489
Justin HardyATLMIA125487
Chris GodwinTBARI024393
Keelan ColeJAXLAR024299
Michael CampanaroBALCHI0232102
Markus WheatonCHIBAL0002117
Ardarius StewartNYJNE0052101
Kasen WilliamsCLEHOU0232102
Phillip DorsettNENYJ013299
Curtis SamuelCARPHI0121105
Taywan TaylorTENIND0031112
Laquon TreadwellMINGB0000126
Tommylee LewisNODET0000129
Dontrelle InmanLACOAK0010119

Tight End

Antonio Gates has a strong range of outcomes against the Raiders and could be used to fill in for teams that had been relying on Charles Clay.

Evan Engram disappeared this past weekend but the TE GLSP likes his odds of recovering versus the Broncos.

Zach Miller and Cameron Brate again project as solid options. Their ranges of outcomes are far favorable than those of Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener, and Jared Cook.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Zach ErtzPHICAR915221512
Kyle RudolphMINGB713191412
Rob GronkowskiNENYJ914191410
Evan EngramNYGDEN613191313
Travis KelceKCPIT911161213
Antonio GatesLACOAK712161214
Delanie WalkerTENIND810151116
Zach MillerCHIBAL611141116
Jordan ReedWASSF610141019
George KittleSFWAS4812922
Julius ThomasMIAATL4613926
Cameron BrateTBARI5910820
Ryan GriffinHOUCLE4711825
Martellus BennettGBMIN4611725
Jared CookOAKLAC4610726
Benjamin WatsonBALCHI4610723
Dwayne AllenNENYJ3612729
Hunter HenryLACOAK4712726
Austin HooperATLMIA2612726
Vernon DavisWASSF4710725
Jesse JamesPITKC357632
Coby FleenerNODET3510625
Ed DicksonCARPHI258632
Jermaine GreshamARITB259630
David NjokuCLEHOU2410631
Seth DeValveCLEHOU2610629
AJ DerbyDENNYG2510630
Dion SimsCHIBAL358630
Austin Seferian-JenkinsNYJNE258535
Eric EbronDETNO347531
Jonnu SmithTENIND035539
Garrett CelekSFWAS159534
OJ HowardTBARI035442
Trey BurtonPHICAR237434
Marcedes LewisJAXLAR025342
Tyler HigbeeLARJAX024348
Josh HillNODET025343
Jeff HeuermanDENNYG024345
Virgil GreenDENNYG024249
Stephen AndersonHOUCLE002257
Gerald EverettLARJAX023247
Demetrius HarrisKCPIT002250
Nick BoyleBALCHI002159
Darren FellsDETNO003155
Brandon WilliamsINDTEN000064

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird, but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

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  1. Not to mention, performances such as Joe Flacco’s negative three points in Week 3 are very hard to forecast but hurt the averages.  (back)
  2. For players that it made sense, I tweaked the search to include only 2017 games. Further, certain players whose health is questionable for the coming week have been omitted from the results.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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