DraftKings Week 7 Cash Game Plays
After a Week 6 in which there were multiple DraftKings value plays, we’re back to a tight week of pricing in Week 7.
Week 6 Review
We’re coming off a successful week. Jerick McKinnon, Jarvis Landry, Deshaun Watson, and Austin Seferian Jenkins all exceed value easily. Even our honorable mention section which included the likes of Mark Ingram, Adam Thielen, Leonard Fournette, and Zach Miller performed well. My only gripe was not writing up Ingram over Alvin Kamara. DeAndre Hopkins and Kareem Hunt were super chalk and didn’t really hurt us in cash games. After a 4-4 week, my record is now at 27-23 overall.
DraftKings Week 7 Cash Game Plays
Dak Prescott ($7,300)
Boxes Checked: team implied total, matchup, rushing upside, pace bump, offensive line.
Dak Prescott should be considered the safest quarterback on the slate in terms of floor. He’s basically a lock for 15 fantasy points, but it’s probable he hits 20 or more. The Cowboys have the highest implied team total on the slate at 26.5. Prescott should be in line for at least two touchdowns against the 30th-ranked defense in terms of QB fantasy points allowed. Additionally, he’s always a threat to run the football. He has racked up an average of almost five fantasy points per game with rushing stats alone. That’s like an extra passing TD.
The 49ers play extremely fast, coming in at No. 1 in seconds per play run. That’s always an advantage for the opposing offense because it often adds an extra few possessions during the game. Lastly, the discrepancy between pass protection and pass rush is rather large. The Cowboys offensive line has the fourth-best adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders, while the 49ers defensive line ranks a lowly 21st in sack rate.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,100)
Boxes Checked: home favorite, rushing upside, matchup, opponent sack rate, pace bump.
Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been extraordinary thus far in the 2017 season, but that could change this week against the Buccaneers. He’s a home favorite, always a good box to check. In addition, he has the ability to add a handful of points with his legs, raising his floor. Also, Taylor has a propensity to tuck it and run when he doesn’t have his favorite targets.
Taylor’s matchup with the Buccaneers is a favorable one, but it may not be as glorious as the Bucs’ bottom-three defensive ranking indicates. They’ve been plagued with injuries, masking their true abilities. However, they still lack the talent in the secondary to be scared. The main detriment to Taylor’s fantasy line has been sacks. He takes too many of them. The Bucs’ defense is second to last in getting pressure on quarterbacks which bodes well for Taylor. Both teams are top 10 in pace, so Taylor should benefit from an extra possession or two as well.
Todd Gurley ($8,200)
Boxes Checked: favorite, team implied total, market share of touches, market share of targets, red zone usage, offensive line, pace bump.
Sean McVay learned his lesson two weeks ago when the Rams didn’t get Todd Gurley enough touches in a loss to the Seahawks. That was remedied last week when Gurley carried the ball 23 times in a win over the Jaguars. The Rams have a team implied total of 25.25 points and are three-point favorites. With the Rams slated to score about three and a half TDs, he should find a way into the end zone at least once.
Gurley’s workload should remain where it’s been for most of this year. He dominates red zone carries with 21 (71 percent share). He also is second on the team to Cooper Kupp in red zone targets. The final point of emphasis that I love is offensive line play; it’s essential for a good running attack. The Rams are ranked fourth by Football Outsiders in adjusted line yards, a metric used to determine offensive line effectiveness.
Mark Ingram ($6,700)
Boxes Checked: team implied total, pass catching back, matchup, offensive line, run play percentage, increased snaps and touches.
Mark Ingram may be up near $8,000 soon if the Saints’ offensive tendencies continue. Over the last three games the Saints, yes the New Orleans Saints, are bottom 10 in the league in pass play percentage. The Saints have only thrown the ball on 52 percent of plays and run the ball a staggering 48 percent of the time. They’ve found a new elixir on offense, and it’s come in the form of balance. Drew Brees hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since the switch was made to a more run-centric approach.
The new offensive approach is probably because of the offensive line’s run blocking success. They currently rank second on Football Outsiders in run blocking. In addition, Ingram is seeing a major spike in touches and snaps, culminating last week with 66 percent of snaps and 30 touches. I don’t know if he’ll see that big of a workload every week, but it’s clear the Saints are trending towards running the ball. The Packers’ defensive front has some issues as well, ranking 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Demaryius Thomas ($5,800) OR Bennie Fowler ($3,300)
Boxes Checked: increased target share, market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, matchup, pace bump.
Similar to my Pierre Garcon and Aldrick Robinson write up of a few weeks ago, this recommendation is impacted by an independent variable. For Garcon and Robinson, it was the status of Marquise Goodwin. In this case, it’s which player fits your roster construction without hindering your other favorite plays. If you can fit Demaryius Thomas, he is preferred, but I also like Bennie Fowler as he should see an increase in targets given the absence of Emmanuel Sanders.
With the injury to Sanders, that opens up 25 percent of the targets in the Broncos’ offense, translating to roughly eight or nine targets. That’s a significant bump for two players already seeing a decent amount of targets. Especially for Thomas, who could be in for a monster workload. I wouldn’t be afraid of the matchup with Casey Hayward, as Siemian went right after Janoris Jenkins last week. I am expecting around 12 targets for Thomas and eight for Fowler.
In addition to the increase in projected workload, the Chargers rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Despite the lackluster effort last week against the Giants, the Broncos should be ready for a division rival. Lastly, both the Chargers and Broncos have been playing up-tempo football to this point in the season, ranking fifth and tenth in pace.
Robert Woods ($4,000)
Boxes Checked: implied team total, target market share per dollar, pace bump, matchup.
Robert Woods may seem like a cringe-worthy cash game play, but we have to save salary somewhere. The Rams have an implied team total of 25.25 points, so Woods’ chances of hitting pay dirt are decent. Woods leads the Rams in total targets and has seen an average of seven since Week 3. At $4,000, you’re not going to find that type of opportunity anywhere else aside from Bennie Fowler. The Cardinals have been an extremely tough matchup for WR1s, however tertiary pieces have flourished against them. You would assume Patrick Peterson1 would be locked on Sammy Watkins. If that’s the case, Woods has a great shot at turning his six to eight targets into a very productive fantasy outing. Finally, the Cardinals will provide a pace bump for the Rams as they’re currently the fourth-fastest tempo team.
George Kittle ($3,600)
Boxes Checked: projected game script, target market share, pace, matchup, QB chemistry.
George Kittle has emerged as a major role player in the 49ers offense. Over the past two weeks, he’s been thrown to 17 times. I expect around the same against the Cowboys in a game where the 49ers may have to play catch up. Between seven and nine targets for his price is a great value. The 49ers are also the fastest-paced team in the NFL, clocking in as the only team running plays quicker than 25 seconds on average. The last box Kittle checks is somewhat subjective, and that’s chemistry with new starter C.J. Beathard. The two played together at Iowa. I usually don’t put too much stock into a narrative like this, and if this was the only criterion Kittle had going for him, I’d pass. But it’s simply an added bonus on top of a player that’s been trending in the right direction for the last few weeks.
I’m not on the “Brett Hundley is a better play than Tyrod Taylor” train, but wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to play him. Other than that I don’t see any reason to stray from either of those two or Prescott. At RB, there are a bunch of ways you can go, including Jerick McKinnon, LeSean McCoy, or Jay Ajayi, but I have faith in the two I chose to spotlight. It should be mentioned that if Chris Ivory starts over an inactive Leonard Fournette, he becomes an auto play. At WR, A.J. Green works if you have the salary. And I also like Rishard Matthews and Pierre Garcon in the mid range. At TE, I like Hunter Henry if you can find the salary.
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