DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

DraftKings Plays for Week 7: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Designed to give you our best advice for taking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, the Play of the Week contest pits writer against writer using FantasyLabs great tools – TrendsPlus/MinusVegas Lines, and more.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of daily fantasy and sports analytics tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free.

Check out the introduction for the nuts and bolts of how this works. The basic idea is that our analysts are going to do their best to recommend lightly-owned players who could smash their expected fantasy points in Week 6. The goal? To help you take down a GPP. To make sure we are well incentivized, the analyst with the best score each week wins a handsome cash prize.

WEEK 6 REVIEW

Before we look at our Week 7 DraftKings plays of the week, let’s review our Week 6 recommendations.

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF Score
Devin McIntyre 4.20 22.63 5.76 10.56 13.20 56.34
Dave Caban 11.94 15.72 5.42 3.86 14.65 51.60
Brian Malone -3.54 22.63 4.00 3.86 13.20 40.15
Joe Paeno 11.94 22.63 -2.57 10.56 -2.67 39.89
Drew Heinl 11.94 22.63 -2.47 -3.69 11.27 39.68
John Lapinski 0.07 22.63 5.76 3.86 -2.67 29.65
Ben Gretch -0.81 22.63 5.42 3.86 -4.47 26.63
Jake Rickrode -3.70 2.75 11.70 -3.91 14.65 21.49
Hasan Rahim 11.94 -2.67 5.85 -6.25 11.27 20.14
George Fitopoulos -0.81 22.63 -2.57 0.89 -4.47 15.66
Scott Smith 9.81 -0.61 -7.74 10.56 -2.51 9.50
Colm Kelly -8.26 22.63 4.58 -5.61 -4.47 8.87
Josh ADHD 11.94 -2.67 -11.43 -3.69 11.27 5.43
Anthony Amico 4.67 -4.53 -7.14 1.07 11.27 5.34
Pat James 4.20 -5.49 5.76 3.86 -4.47 3.87
Eric Braun 4.17 -2.67 -2.99 0.89 3.39 2.78
Tod Burros -6.92 6.68 -4.64 -3.69 11.27 2.70
Heith Krueger 11.94 -2.67 -11.87 -3.69 1.81 -4.48
RotoDoc -15.28 2.75 5.76 3.86 -3.16 -6.07
Ryan Bobbitt -15.28 -1.21 -1.70 10.25 -2.51 -10.45
Mike Beers -3.70 -7.77 -5.11 3.86 1.81 -10.90
Blair Andrews -15.28 -2.66 2.81 1.03 1.81 -12.27
Matt Wispe 4.67 -2.67 -6.17 -3.69 -4.47 -12.33
Ben Bauer -15.28 -9.15 3.49 -4.65 -4.47 -30.06

Congratulations to Devin McIntyre for winning Week 6. It was a strong week all around for our analysts, with two 50-point scores and nine analysts posting over 20 points of adjusted Plus/Minus value. That’s a huge boost to GPP lineups.

Week 7 DraftKings Plays of the Week

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF
Anthony Amico Brett Hundley Orleans Darkwa Davante Adams George Kittle NY Giants Defense
Ben Bauer Blake Bortles Christian McCaffery Robert Woods Cameron Brate New Orleans Defense
Ben Gretch Russell Wilson LeSean McCoy Martavis Bryant George Kittle Miami Defense
Blair Andrews Jared Goff Andre Ellington Zay Jones David Njoku LA Rams Defense
Brian Malone Blake Bortles Alvin Kamara Pierre Garcon Hunter Henry New Orleans Defense
Colm Kelly Tyrod Taylor LeSean McCoy Rishard Matthews Austin Seferian-Jenkins Baltimore Defense
Dave Caban Tyrod Taylor Devontae Booker Jermaine Kearse Zach Miller Carolina Defense
Devin McIntyre Tyrod Taylor Isaiah Crowell Pierre Garcon Kyle Rudolph New Orleans Defense
Eric Braun Philip Rivers Derrick Henry Randall Cobb Ed Dickson Miami Defense
George Fitopoulos Marcus Mariota LeSean McCoy Rishard Matthews Ben Watson LA Chargers Defense
Heith Krueger Jared Goff Jordan Howard A.J. Green Hunter Henry Chicago Defense
Jacob Rickrode Drew Brees Frank Gore Willie Snead Kyle Rudolph Cincinnati Defence
Joe Paeno C.J. Beathard Mark Ingram Pierre Garcon Evan Engram Minnesota Defense
John Lapinski Brett Hundley Marlon Mack Demaryius Thomas Kyle Rudolph Baltimore Defense
Josh ADHD Marcus Mariota Ezekiel Elliott Mike Evans Delanie Walker Buffalo Defense
Matt Wispe Tyrod Taylor Mark Ingram Zay Jones Kyle Rudolph New Orleans Defense
Mike Beers Blake Bortles Latavius Murray Sammy Watkins George Kittle Tennessee Defense
Pat James Russell Wilson Carlos Hyde Doug Baldwin Nick O’Leary Chicago Defense
Ryan Bobbitt Jared Goff Alvin Kamara Pierre Garcon Kyle Rudolph LA Chargers Defense
Scott Smith Marcus Mariota Duke Johnson Eric Decker Jesse James Dallas Defense
Tod Burros Brett Hundley Alvin Kamara Rishard Matthews George Kittle Jacksonville Defense

Commentary

Anthony Amico – According to the FantasyLabs Vegas Dashboard, there’s already been three points of reverse line movement in favor of the Giants, and 1.5 points on the over. This game should be higher scoring than expected, and New York should be able to keep it close. That means a run-heavy attack. The Giants ran the ball 59 percent of the time against Denver, with Orleans Darkwa as the catalyst.

Ben BauerBlake Bortles is a cheaper fade to the projected high-use Tyrod Taylor, and Bortles also has more pro trends on FantasyLabs than any QB other than Taylor on this slate of games.

Ben Gretch – Martavis Bryant’s price has dropped $1,700 since Week 1. Using FantasyLabs’ Trends tool we can see on a sample of 341 WRs whose salary dropped at least $1,500 in a given year, the average Plus/Minus was +2.02. Bryant saw consistent air yards in Weeks 1-4, and in Week 6 his snap count dipped on account of a run-heavy game plan, which I discussed more in-depth in this week’s Stealing Signals. Disgruntled and unproductive lately, he’s a cheap, probably lightly-owned squeaky wheel play.

Blair Andrews – Over the last four games, Zay Jones leads the Bills in snaps, routes, and air yards, and is second in targets among healthy players. Yes, he’s been very bad. But there’s nothing like a matchup against the team that’s allowing the highest FantasyLabs’ Plus/Minus to opposing WRs to turn a season around. He’s currently projected for less than one percent ownership.

Brian Malone – Blake Bortles has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and the Colts are a funnel defense allowing the second-highest Plus/Minus to QBs. All that at virtually zero ownership.

Colm Kelly – Tyrod Taylor gets the Buccaneers defense who are 31st in pass DVOA and continue to struggle at a number of positions. They just have been poor against both the pass and the run. The Bills offense may not look pretty, but the price and match-up make Taylor a strong play. On the Tournament model on FantasyLabs, he has the second-highest floor and fourth-highest ceiling while valued as the QB20. Lock him in.

Dave Caban – FantasyLabs’ range of outcomes projections place Jermaine Kearse with a floor that’s higher than his implied total. He boasts a strong bargain rating of 83 percent, has a projected ceiling of 21 points, and will likely be owned by less than 4 percent of players.

Devin McIntyreIsaiah Crowell has a similar ceiling projection as Jordan Howard and Matt Forte, but only costs $4,000. He has the fifth-highest projected Plus/Minus among RBs.

Eric Braun – Now priced at $5,300, Philip Rivers has the best the opportunity to deliver a good game among the cheap QBs this week. FantasyLabs tools have his matchup at a +0.02 so it’s at least neutral. FantasyLabs projects an ownership of under one percent. I’m hoping for lots of red zone TDs passes.

George Fitopoulos – With a projected ownership from FantasyLabs at 0-1 percent, Ben Watson will not be a popular play this week, but for a cheap tight end he possesses sneaky 5x upside. Labs have his ceiling at 15 points, and it’s likely he will get targets funneled his way with Mike Wallace banged up and Jeremy Maclin shadowed by Xavier Rhodes.

Heith Krueger – Against a team that lost Luke Kuechly and at home where his team performs significantly better this season, Jordan Howard appears poised to go off. At only $6,400, FantasyLabs projects Howard to be owned at roughly 5-8 percent in tournaments this week. Averaging 26 touches over the last four weeks, Howard could possess massive upside despite his primarily rushing touch style.

Jacob RickrodeWillie Snead is FantasyLabs third-highest-rated WR of the week with a 24.9 pt ceiling. Going back 22 games, Kyle Rudolph has averaged 9.5 targets and 6.75 receptions in games that Stefon Diggs has missed.

Joe Paeno – Pierre Garcon is too cheap to ignore in a soft matchup versus the Dallas secondary. Garcon is a near lock for double-digit targets while boasting the highest ceiling of any wide receiver on the slate, according to FantasyLabs.

John Lapinski – The Baltimore defense leads all teams in takeaway percentage, DK points per game, and FantasyLabs’ upside percentage, and yet their salary is the 11th-lowest of the week. With Brandon Williams set to return, I’ll gladly take the top scoring defense at this price, even on the road.

Josh ADHD – Marcus Mariota is projected between 5-8 percent ownership despite being the third highest-rated QB in many FantasyLabs models this week. Cleveland doesn’t care about turning the ball over, which should provide this offense plenty of opportunity to play pitch and catch.

Matt Wispe – According to the FantasyLabs Models tool, the Tampa Bay Defense allows a 2.2 Plus/Minus to WRs which is the highest on the slate. Zay Jones’ catch rate has been awful, but he currently leads all Buffalo WRs in targets and is third among all Buffalo receivers in targets. Currently averaging 13.2 yards per reception, this looks like the best game possible for a “breakout.” And with a projected ownership between zero and one percent, Jones is an intriguing upside play with a terrifying floor.

Mike Beers – Does Sammy Watkins still exist? If Patrick Peterson is healthy, the answer is a definitive “no,” but if Peterson sits this one out, I like Watkins chances of returning value above his meager $4,400 price tag.

Pat James – The combination of Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin carry a projected ownership of 5-8 percent each according to FantasyLabs Model. This is a sneaky spot for Wilson and Baldwin to really explode. Baldwin should avoid Janoris Jenkins playing out of the slot, so I expect the potential for a multi-touchdown game is greater than many expect.

Ryan Bobbitt – At 2-4 percent ownership for a team with the fourth highest total on the slate, Jared Goff may go overlooked. His ceiling projection of 26.8 is equal to Marcus Mariota’s in Levitan’s model at potentially lower ownership.

Scott Smith – The Browns are last against the pass according to DVOA. With both the Bales and Levitan Models liking Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews, I like the pivot play in Marcus Mariota. He may not be fully healthy, but he still looks to be a solid play against Cleveland.

Tod BurrosGeorge Kittle has the best projected plus/minus at TE with 2.14.

Frequency Table

QB COUNT RB COUNT WR COUNT TE COUNT DEF COUNT
Tyrod Taylor 4 LeSean McCoy 3 Pierre Garcon 4 Kyle Rudolph 5 New Orleans Defense 4
Blake Bortles 3 Alvin Kamara 3 Rishard Matthews 3 George Kittle 4 Baltimore Defense 2
Jared Goff 3 Mark Ingram 2 Zay Jones 2 Hunter Henry 2 Chicago Defense 2
Marcus Mariota 3 Andre Ellington 1 A.J. Green 1 Zach Miller 2 LA Chargers Defense 2
Brett Hundley 3 Carlos Hyde 1 Davante Adams 1 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 1 Miami Defense 2
Russell Wilson 2 Christian McCaffrey 1 Demaryius Thomas 1 Ben Watson 1 Buffalo Defense 1
C.J. Beathard 1 Derrick Henry 1 Doug Baldwin 1 Cameron Brate 1 Carolina Defense 1
Philip Rivers 1 Devontae Booker 1 Eric Decker 1 David Njoku 1 Cincinnati Defense 1
Drew Brees 1 Duke Johnson 1 Jermaine Kearse 1 Delanie Walker 1 Dallas Defense 1
Ezekiel Elliott 1 Willie Snead 1 Ed Dickson 1 Jacksonville Defense 1
Frank Gore 1 Martavis Bryant 1 Evan Engram 1 LA Rams Defense 1
Isaiah Crowell 1 Mike Evans 1 Jesse James 1 Minnesota Defense 1
Orleans Darkwa 1 Randall Cobb 1 Nick O’Leary 1 NY Giants Defense 1
Jordan Howard 1 Robert Woods 1 Tennessee Defense 1
Latavius Murray 1 Sammy Watkins 1
Marlon Mack 1

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

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