DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

DraftKings Plays for Week 6: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Designed to give you our best advice for taking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, the Play of the Week contest pits writer against writer using FantasyLabs great tools – TrendsPlus/MinusVegas Lines, and more.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of daily fantasy and sports analytics tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free.

Check out the introduction for the nuts and bolts of how this works. The basic idea is that our analysts are going to do their best to recommend lightly-owned players who could smash their expected fantasy points in Week 6. The goal? To help you take down a GPP. To make sure we are well incentivized, the analyst with the best score each week wins a handsome cash prize.

WEEK 5 REVIEW

Before we look at our Week 5 DraftKings plays of the week, let’s review our Week 5 recommendations.

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF score season
Drew Heinl 10.72 5.94 1.94 6.23 5.09 29.93 92.92
Hasan Rahim 10.94 21.99 -3.61 -5.93 1.75 25.12 16.93
Ryan Bobbitt 10.72 16.74 -3.91 -1.31 0.93 23.16 56.77
John Lapinski 10.72 -0.70 1.94 6.23 1.75 19.95 56.07
Ben Gretch -4.91 0.63 2.83 6.23 13.35 18.13 70.30
Brian Malone 5.39 8.67 -5.27 6.23 2.13 17.17 28.62
Josh ADHD 5.39 16.74 -4.80 -5.93 0.93 12.32 28.13
RotoDoc 10.72 -1.65 1.94 -1.02 1.75 11.74 59.59
Matt Wispe -1.99 -3.47 -3.61 15.67 5.09 11.69 62.35
George Fitopoulos 0.83 2.01 1.94 4.46 1.75 11.00 -23.37
Scott Smith 0.83 2.01 1.56 6.23 0.00 10.64 9.19
Pat James 4.85 -0.70 4.11 -1.02 0.93 8.16 52.80
Tod Burros 10.72 5.94 4.11 -8.72 -4.11 7.94 51.44
Anthony Amico -4.91 21.99 -10.43 -4.31 4.02 6.35 66.10
Blair Andrews 10.72 -1.65 -0.19 -3.13 -0.14 5.61 31.88
Ben Bauer 4.85 -1.49 2.83 -8.72 4.02 1.48 10.12
Eric Braun 10.44 -1.53 -7.17 0.58 -0.86 1.47 60.17
Heith Krueger -2.59 -4.08 8.28 -5.14 1.75 -1.79 1.87
Dave Caban -7.79 2.01 -8.00 6.23 4.02 -3.53 -12.53
Jacob Rickrode -10.65 -1.65 1.56 4.42 1.75 -4.58 57.32
Mike Beers -7.79 5.04 -11.93 -3.76 13.35 -5.09 16.95
@cmontumbleweed 0.83 -1.65 -5.31 6.23 -6.59 -6.49 19.31
Devin McIntyre -4.91 -1.49 1.94 -4.31 0.93 -7.84 -10.56
Joe Paeno 1.22 -4.53 1.94 -8.72 0.93 -9.16 12.18
Colm Kelly -7.57 -13.08 -7.34 6.23 5.09 -16.67 -61.74

Congratulations to Drew Heinl, this week’s winner. Also props for a great effort to Hasan Rahim and Ryan Bobbitt. Heinl’s win was powered by his recommendation of Brian Hoyer, but it also helped that every one of his picks had a positive Plus/Minus score. Overall, 11 different analysts gave you a score of 10 or more points. That’s a huge boost to your GPP lineups.

WEEK 6 DRAFTKINGS PLAYS OF THE WEEK

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF
Anthony Amico Deshaun Watson Duke Johnson DeAndre Hopkins Ryan Griffin Baltimore Defense
Ben Bauer Jameis Winston Mike Gillislee Mike Evans David Njoku Atlanta Defense
Ben Gretch Case Keenum Mark Ingram Adam Thielen Zach Miller Atlanta Defense
Blair Andrews Jameis Winston Javorius Allen Adam Humphries Kyle Rudolph Tampa Bay Defense
Brian Malone Kevin Hogan Mark Ingram Davante Adams Zach Miller Houston Defense
Colm Kelly Derek Carr Mark Ingram Michael Crabtree Austin Seferian-Jenkins Atlanta Defense
Dave Caban Kirk Cousins Jerick McKinnon Adam Thielen Zach Miller LA Rams Defense
Devin McIntyre Carson Palmer Mark Ingram John Brown Coby Fleener Houston Defense
Drew Heinl Kirk Cousins Mark Ingram Ricardo Louis Jordan Reed Baltimore Defense
Eric Braun Matthew Stafford Todd Gurley Pierre Garcon George Kittle Cleveland Defense
George Fitopoulos Case Keenum Mark Ingram Jamison Crowder George Kittle Atlanta Defense
Hasan Rahim Kirk Cousins Todd Gurley Jarvis Landry Travis Kelce Baltimore Defense
Heith Krueger Kirk Cousins Todd Gurley Chris Hogan Jordan Reed Tampa Bay Defense
Jake Rickrode Ben Roethlisberger Jay Ajayi Marvin Jones Martellus Bennett LA Rams Defense
Joe Paeno Kirk Cousins Mark Ingram Jamison Crowder Austin Hooper Baltimore Defense
John Lapinski Jameis Winston Mark Ingram John Brown Zach Miller Washington Defense
Josh ADHD Kirk Cousins Todd Gurley Michael Thomas Jordan Reed Baltimore Defense
Matt Wispe Deshaun Watson Todd Gurley Tyreek Hill Jordan Reed Atlanta Defense
Mike Beers Ben Roethlisberger Devonta Freeman Martavis Bryant Zach Miller Tampa Bay Defense
Pat James Carson Palmer Ameer Abdullah John Brown Zach Miller Atlanta Defense
RotoDoc Jameis Winston Jay Ajayi John Brown Zach Miller Kansas City Defense
Ryan Bobbitt Jameis Winston Lamar Miller Taylor Gabriel Cameron Brate Washington Defense
Scott Smith Josh McCown Tevin Coleman Willie Snead Coby Fleener Washington Defense
Tod Burros Matt Ryan Le’Veon Bell Julio Jones Jordan Reed Baltimore Defense

Commentary

Anthony AmicoDeshaun Watson is currently the top QB in the FantasyLabs Tournament Model. The rookie has averaged 31.8 DK points over his past three contests, and now gets a Cleveland defense allowing the fifth most points to opposing QBs. The Vegas total on this game has already come up 2.5 points from when it opened, indicating that this could be a high-scoring affair.

Ben BauerDavid Njoku is projected for less than one percent ownership on FantasyLabs, but has three TDs through five games this season, two of which came from new Browns starter Kevin Hogan.

Ben Gretch – Tops among QBs in Projected Plus/Minus at FantasyLabs, Case Keenum went 17 of 21 in relief of Sam Bradford Monday night. He faces a beatable Packers’ secondary with uncertainty surrounding star WR Stefon Diggs’ health, so I stacked him with Adam Thielen.

Blair AndrewsAdam Humphries has averaged just over six targets per game in 2017 and is in line for a lot more in a game in which the Buccaneers will likely throw a lot, and Mike Evans should be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. He has a 100 percent Consistency Rating on FantasyLabs over the last month, and his 87 percent Consistency Rating over the past 12 months ranks inside the top six at WR.

Brian Malone – According to FantasyLabs, Kevin Hogan ranks among the top-10 QBs on the slate in fantasy points per opportunity. The game total keeps rising, and Hogan’s rushing ability brings a solid fantasy floor.

Colm Kelly – Without Adrian Peterson taking touches, Mark Ingram should be able to take advantage of a good home match-up. Ingram’s averaging 4 yards per rush, but I expect it to improve moving forward. Detroit’s defense allows the fifth-most receptions (6.4) and receiving yards (58.2) per game to opposing RBs. Alvin Kamara will be involved too, but expect Ingram to pick up 15 touches at minimum and the short yardage work. Using the FantasyLabs Bales model, Michael Crabtree has the fourth-highest WR rating in terms of expected outcome vs his cost.

Dave Caban – FantasyLabs projects Adam Thielen with a very strong Plus/Minus of 1.34 and one of the week’s strongest ceilings: 28 points. Given his upside, he’s a value at his $6,000 price tag. 

Devin McIntyreJohn Brown is averaging eight targets per game but is priced at just $4,500. Tampa Bay offers the highest opponent Plus/Minus to WRs on the slate. Brown is priced $400 below the other J. Brown and has a bargain rating of 91 percent according to FantasyLabs.

Drew HeinlRicardo Louis has 17 targets over his last two games, and it looks like Kenny Britt may be sidelined. In limited time Louis has shown a connection with Kevin Hogan. Everyone is going to play Texans this week, but few will run it back with Louis. FantasyLabs has him projected at two to four percent owned.

Eric Braun – I’m finding that buying last week’s points is a way to separate my players from the herd.1 FantasyLabs tools project George Kittle at five to eight percent ownership with a ceiling of 14.7. Kittle also draws the best Plus/Minus of all TEs with a +4.9.

George Fitopoulos – I generally like to spend down at the TE position due to its uncertainty, and this week George Kittle presents a great combination of matchup and value. He faces off against a Washington defense that has allowed the highest opposing Plus/Minus on the slate to TEs (+4.9 points). According to Labs’ red zone stats, Kittle also saw four targets in the red zone last week, converting them into three catches, 11 yards, and a TD.

Hasan Rahim – Per FantasyLabs, Travis Kelce has one of the top three ceilings at the TE position. Despite his lofty ceiling, FantasyLabs projects his ownership to be under one percent.

Heith Krueger – Against perceived defensive juggernaut Jacksonville, Todd Gurley is in a fantastic spot for tournaments. With an expected ownership of 5-8 percent and the highest projected RB point ceiling by FantasyLabs, it’s a perfect spot to leverage off a tournament field where Leonard Fournette will be part of a significant amount of opposing tournament lineups. Gurley could easily have a day against a team that has given up the 28th most adjusted fantasy points to opposing RBs so far this season.

Jacob Rickrode – FantasyLabs projects Ben Roethlisberger to be one percent owned and gives him a 27.8-point ceiling. Martellus Bennett gets a Vikings defense that has allowed a TE to score in three of five games this year.

Joe Paeno – Jamison Crowder has had a rough start to the year, but he should finally be healthy coming off of a bye week. I like him to get back on track vs. the 49ers in a cake matchup in the slot vs. K’waun Williams. FantasyLabs ranks Crowder as the best value on the main slate in terms of Points/Dollar and Plus/Minus. 

John Lapinski – The Washington defense has five Pro Trends on FantasyLabs, and comes off a bye to face the 0-5 ‘Niners traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 game. I typically like to pay down at defense, but their projected low ownership and salary below the top tier makes them an attractive option.

Josh ADHD – Todd Gurley is an excellent pivot from Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman at the price point, and his five to eight percent projected ownership according to FantasyLabs indicates that many prefer to avoid him after he flamed out in a jam spot last week. Take advantage.

Matt Wispe – Using the FantasyLabs Models tool, Jordan Reed is projected with the second-highest ceiling among TEs. Among Reed’s six Pro Trends is an average of at least three receptions over the last 16 games with a Plus/Minus of 2.08. The Vegas total on this game is the third highest on the slate.

Mike Beers – At $5,700 for Ben Roethlisberger, we have an 86 percent bargain rating on a QB who gets to throw the ball to Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Le’Veon Bell. I know what happened last week, and I know they’re on the road, but they need this game. I’m rolling the dice against the 30th-ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to QB.

Pat James – The Carson Palmer/John Brown stack should be low owned this week, but I like the matchup Arizona has against Tampa Bay. FantasyLabs Plus/Minus tool indicates that Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering +5.1 expected points to quarterbacks and +2.6 expected points to wide receivers.

RotoDocJay Ajayi is projected by FantasyLabs to be under five percent owned, and he hasn’t been this cheap since his third 200-yard game last year. Ajayi’s market share numbers are great. FantasyLabs shows he’s 11th in share of team rush TDs, second in share of team rush yards, and fourth in share of team snaps among RBs on the main slate (minimum three games).

Ryan BobbittTaylor Gabriel is the third highest-rated WR in the FantasyLabs Tournament model and should see an increase in opportunity without Mohamed Sanu. He’s priced around more popular options and could go overlooked.

Scott Smith – Jonathan Bales’ model gives Josh McCown a projection of 16.2 points. New England’s defense has been especially generous to QBs, allowing them to average over 300 yards per game. Expecting the Jets to play from behind in this game means there’s a good chance for McCown to hit or exceed that benchmark.

Tod Burros – According to FantasyLabs ownership projections, Jordan Reed is my least chalky player. I used Labs models to see which studs had the most upside this week and Le’Veon Bell is the guy I think is going to give me a chance to win. He scores more on the road and the Chiefs defense is better against the pass than run. I expect most experts to pick a low-priced RB in this contest.

Frequency Table

QB COUNT RB COUNT WR COUNT TE COUNT DEF COUNT
Kirk Cousins 6 Mark Ingram 8 John Brown 4 Zach Miller 7 Atlanta Defense 6
Jameis Winston 5 Todd Gurley 5 Jamison Crowder 2 Jordan Reed 5 Baltimore Defense 6
Ben Roethlisberger 2 Jay Ajayi 2 Adam Thielen 2 Coby Fleener 2 Tampa Bay Defense 3
Carson Palmer 2 Ameer Abdullah 1 Adam Humphries 1 George Kittle 2 Washington Defense 3
Deshaun Watson 2 Devonta Freeman 1 Chris Hogan 1 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 1 Houston Defense 2
Case Keenum 2 Duke Johnson 1 Davante Adams 1 Cameron Brate 1 LA Rams Defense 2
Derek Carr 1 Javorius Allen 1 DeAndre Hopkins 1 David Njoku 1 Kansas City Defense 1
Josh McCown 1 Jerick McKinnon 1 Jarvis Landry 1 Kyle Rudolph 1 Cleveland Defense 1
Kevin Hogan 1 Lamar Miller 1 Julio Jones 1 Martellus Bennett 1
Matt Ryan 1 Le’Veon Bell 1 Martavis Bryant 1 Ryan Griffin 1
Matthew Stafford 1 Mike Gillislee 1 Marvin Jones 1 Travis Kelce 1
Tevin Coleman 1 Michael Crabtree 1 Austin Hooper 1
Michael Thomas 1
Mike Evans 1
Pierre Garcon 1
Ricardo Louis 1
Taylor Gabriel 1
Tyreek Hill 1
Willie Snead 1

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  1. See Cam Newton last week.  (back)
By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

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