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Week 7 Fantasy Projections: Hooper and Gabriel to Erupt

The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections help you make lineup decisions using historical matchups as your guide.

Week 7 is upon us, and it’s time to make start/sit and roster management decisions. Earlier in the week, we looked at preliminary GLSP projections derived from a model I pulled together. Let’s compare and contrast these results with the GLSP projections calculated by the RotoViz apps and identify players with a surprising range of outcomes.

As a reminder, GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have running backs similar to Duke Johnson fared against defenses similar to the Titans? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer. GLSP projections rely solely on historical data.

How’d We Do Last Week?

My quarterback selections were mixed. Jacoby Brissett was poor, scoring just 14 points. However, Matthew Stafford struggled, as expected by the GLSP, going under 15 points. Running backs got the best of me. Aaron Jones produced just five fantasy points, and DeMarco Murray had a 19 point performance. These results were the opposite of my expectations. The GLSP hit on Adam Thielen, correctly forecasting a near 20-point performance, but Jarvis Landry, who was expected to struggle, was one of the week’s best wide receivers. Tight end has been the most challenging position within this article, but I did well with it last week. Zach Miller panned out as a solid flex play with 10 points, and Jared Cook should have been benched. He scored just three points.      

Week 7 Fantasy Projections

Quarterback

The preliminary GLSP liked Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins. The four project strongly within the site app as well.

The early model really liked Dak Prescott versus the 49ers. When set to defaults, the site app isn’t quite as optimistic. It projects him with a floor of only 13 points and ceiling of 22. Similarly, Marcus Mariota was viewed as one of the best plays of the week in the early GLSP but projects with a limited ceiling in the site app.

Both models agree that Carson Palmer should remain in lineups, and Cam Newton looks like a safe play against the Bears. On the flipside, Ben Roethlisberger is forecasted with a lower range of outcomes than he’s accustomed to, in both GLSPs.

Surprisingly Good

Tyrod Taylor is averaging just 13 points per game, which ranks 20th among QBs. However, he should be able to raise this total when matching up with the Buccaneers on Sunday. He posses the 10th-highest floor and ninth-best median and ceiling projections of the week. Tampa Bay has been the third-easiest matchup for passers in 2017, and QBs similar to Taylor have averaged approximately 19 points in comparable matchups. Compared to other streaming options, such as Trevor Siemian and Jared Goff, he’s a much stronger play.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 15 17
Median 19 21
High 23 27

Surprisingly Bad

Andy Dalton started the season with a horrendous -3 in Week 1. Since then he’s gone for nine, 16, 28 and 13 points. Clearly, he hasn’t been good. Still, I was surprised to see just how poorly he projects against the Steelers. It makes sense as the team has been particularly stingy against opposing passers. With a floor of 12 points in the site app and just 1o in the early model, it would be prudent to bench Dalton this weekend. In dire straights, I’d trot him out before Joe Flacco or Ryan Fitzpatrick, but his comps from the early GLSP averaged just 13 points per game.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 12 12
Median 16 18
High 20 24

Running Back

Once again, Le’Veon Bell is primed for a monster game, and Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are expected to be atop the weekly leaderboards.

While the early GLSP expected both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to explode against the Packers, the site app isn’t so sure. Based on 2017 games, Kamara projects with a floor of three points and ceiling of 13. Ingram’s floor is approximately four and his ceiling 18. Given the contradictory results, I wouldn’t be overly optimistic or pessimistic on either back.

Melvin Gordon projected poorly in the preliminary model but is forecasted with a floor of nine points and ceiling of 23 against the Broncos. All of Denver’s rushers project with solid ranges of outcomes. In fact, the site app projects Devontae Booker with a ceiling of 14 points when filtering for 2017 games.

The GLSP views Isaiah Crowell as a dangerous flex play when filtering 2017 only. It projects Giovani Bernard as a better all-around alternative.

Jerick McKinnon owners can expect another RB1 type performance, and Tevin Coleman should be in lineups this weekend.

Surprisingly Good

Chris Thompson has been a revelation for many owners this season. He’s currently the seventh-ranked RB and is averaging 18 points per game. Perhaps it’s unfair of me to use him as my surprisingly good RB of the week, but I’m doing so to make a point. The GLSP apps should be tinkered with — the ability to do so is what makes them so powerful. If you open up the RB GLSP and simply leave it at defaults, you might be surprised to see that Thompson projects with a floor of three points and ceiling that’s about three-quarters of his seasonal average. Instead, filter his recent games down to six, and you’ll see those numbers spike. Alternatively, you could filter his game log for his last 16 games and tweak the slider for the number of touches to 12. (Thompson is averaging 12 touches per game in 2017.) After doing this, you’ll see that he should be expected to have a solid outing against the Eagles.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 4 5
Median 7 9 12
High 13 15 17

Surprisingly Bad

Did you know that Duke Johnson is currently the 12th-highest scoring RB in PPR leagues? To be honest, I wasn’t aware that he ranked this high until doing my Week 7 research. Johnson is averaging 14 points per game and has gone for 10 or more points in four of six games played. He’s benefited from Isaiah Crowell failing to live up to preseason expectations and the struggles within Cleveland’s receiving corps.

While this bodes well for his rest of season outlook, it might not be enough to make him a lock for your lineup this week. The preliminary GLSP placed his floor at just two points and limited his ceiling to 10. The site version sees his floor as three points. This presents a challenge for teams that will be relying on baseline production from the spot he’d occupy in their rosters. His high-end outcome improves as the recent games filter is dropped, but his floor remains low.1

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 3 3
Median 4 5 7
High 10 13 14

Wide Receiver

The early WR GLSP expected an explosion from the Falcons’ passing game, and unsurprisingly, the site version pegs Julio Jones with the week’s highest ceiling. Usual suspects Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and Larry Fitzgerald also project with some of the strongest ranges of outcomes.2

Robert Woods and Jordan Matthews stand out when reviewing default projections as both possess ceilings of 23 points. Of course, a six-game search makes more sense as both players changed teams in 2017. It’s unclear if Matthews will play this weekend, but if he does, he’ll have a ceiling of 17 points against Tampa Bay. Woods, who faces the Cardinals, projects with a median of 11 points and ceiling of 17.

Jermaine Kearse makes for a solid flex play against the Dolphins. He’s forecasted with a high-end projection of 18 points and median of 10. Fellow Jet, Robby Anderson, also projects favorably. He’s averaging nearly seven targets per game and projects with a ceiling of 19 points and median of 10 when filtering his game log for six to eight targets. Additionally, the early GLSP really liked his outlook.

Pierre Garcon and Tyrelle Williams have weaker projections than usual within the site GLSP. However, the preliminary model projects both with ceilings of 17 points and averages of 10 or more.

The early GLSP wasn’t sold on Demaryius Thomas against the Chargers. Of course, he should see an uptick in targets with Emmanuel Sanders sidelined. Plus, the site app projects him with a ceiling of 22 points and median of 13. His owners need not worry.

Marqise Lee projects favorably for teams in need of a flex play or rotational WR. Based on his 2017 game log, the GLSP expects him to score between seven and 17 points with an average of 10. The preliminary model forecasted a slightly lower ceiling but was also favorable.

Surprisingly Good

Taylor Gabriel projected with a high-end outcome of 21 points and floor of 10 in my GLSP. It definitely liked Atlanta’s matchup with New England as nearly the entire offense projected with strong ranges of outcomes. The Patriots have been generous to opposing pass catchers and further buoying optimism for Gabriel is the fact that the site GLSP projects a ceiling of 19 points and median of nine. While the floor isn’t as favorable for Gabriel as in the early model, it does project him as a nice option for teams in need of an upside flex play.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 3 5
Median 5 17 9
High 14 16 19

Surprisingly Bad

Despite Andrew Luck throwing zero passes so far, T.Y. Hilton has managed to score 13 points per game and is currently WR16. Unfortunately, his good fortune could come to an end against the Jaguars. The preliminary GLSP calculated a ceiling of only 12 points and the site app sees the potential for a dreadful outing. When filtering for 2017 games only, it seems that scoring in the double digits could be a tall task for the speedy WR.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 1 2 2
Median 4 6 8
High 9 11 13

Tight End

The early GLSP loved Zach Miller. While he projects as a starter within the site app, he’s not expected to go for 20-plus points.

Both models are excited about Austin Hooper’s outlook versus the Patriots. He projects with a median of 11 or 12 points and ceiling of 2o in each.3

Austin-Seferian Jenkins should be in starting lineups, and Ben Watson would be an okay option for teams in need.

My GLSP saw the potential for a Chargers TE to have a solid outing against the Broncos. When filtering for 2017 games, the site app believes the correct choice to be Hunter Henry.

Jordan Reed and Martellus Bennett project more favorably in the site app than in my model. If available, George Kittle is one of the week’s better options for team’s in need of a streamer.

Surprisingly Good

Jimmy Graham is currently the 20th ranked TE. Though he’s averaged nine points in 2017, the GLSP sees a 20-point game as a distinct possibility. His projection remains strong when filtering for all game ranges, and more than half of his comps scored 10 or more points. The preliminary model didn’t forecast a particularly high ceiling (13), but it did project him with the week’s fourth-highest floor. You can confidently roll out Graham for his matchup with the Giants.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 3 4 5 6
Median 6 9 11 13
High 10 13 16 18

Surprisingly Bad

Coby Fleener has struggled mightily since Week 2, scoring just seven points in his last three games. Still, you might be considering him as a streaming option as he is a Saint. Don’t! Even for a player averaging two points per game, in his last three contests, his range of outcomes is depressing. Seth Devalve, Jesse James, and Marcedes Lewis all project more favorably.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 0 1 1 2
Median 2 2 3 4
High 4 5 7 9

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  1. The range of outcomes presented below is based on his 16 most recent games.  (back)
  2. It’s a good week to be a receiver named Michael, I guess.  (back)
  3. This assumes that the recent game slider is set to six.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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