Advice

Early GLSP Projections – Falcons Will Feast, Kamara Emerges

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

Through six weeks, the “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of five and a half points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP has recorded an average absolute difference of six and a half points through five Weeks. The RB and WR GLSPs have been off by an average absolute difference of five and a half points and the TE GLSP by under five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.1

A Couple of Notes

I pulled Week 6 data Monday morning, so those results from Monday night’s game did not get included when running the model for Week 7. As opposed to using a player’s most recent 16 games in the comparable matchup searches, I limited results to 12 games. 2017 data is becoming more meaningful so I want it to be weighed more heavily into the process going forward.2

Quarterback

Matt Ryan faces the Patriots defense this weekend and is expected to feast on its secondary. Marcus Mariota, if able to play, also projects with one of the best ranges of outcomes of the week.

Dak Prescott and Tom Brady project with high-end outcomes of 24 points and, along with Kirk Cousins, round out the top-five quarterback plays of Week 7.

Derek Carr could struggle against the Chiefs, and rival passer Alex Smith is expected to slow down.

Philip Rivers possesses a bottom-third projection against the Broncos. Andy Dalton and Trevor Siemian are also candidates to struggle.

Carson Palmer should remain in lineups, and Cam Newton looks like a safe play against the Bears.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGWK RK
Marcus MariotaTENCLE1823252210
Tom BradyNEATL1721242111
Dak PrescottDALSF172124219
Matt RyanATLNE1419252012
Drew BreesNOGB1318221913
Kirk CousinsWASPHI1620231912
Russell WilsonSEANYG1316221913
Cam NewtonCARCHI1418201713
Jameis WinstonTBBUF1415181615
Carson PalmerARILAR1216221615
Blake BortlesJAXIND1215211617
Tyrod TaylorBUFTB1216191515
Josh McCownNYJMIA1114161518
Brian HoyerSFDAL1015211516
Derek CarrOAKKC912191419
Ben RoethlisbergerPITCIN814171419
Joe FlaccoBALMIN1215161418
Alex SmithKCOAK912171320
Carson WentzPHIWAS813161319
Andy DaltonCINPIT1013151319
Trevor SiemianDENLAC1012151220
Kevin HoganCLETEN613181221
Mitch TrubiskyCHICAR711171221
Eli ManningNYGSEA712161220
Philip RiversLACDEN59161121
Case KeenumMINBAL510141122
Jay CutlerMIANYJ59161121
Jared GoffLARARI713151122
Jacoby BrissettINDJAX58151023

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell looks primed for a monster week with an average projection of 22 points and ceiling of 28. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram could find themselves atop weekly leaderboards after their matchup with the Packers. Both are expected to score 11 or more points. While Ingram projects with a ceiling of 17 points, Kamara’s high-end outcome is 21.

Chris Thompson is expected to remain a solid play against the Eagles. Although Doug Martin projects with a wide range of outcomes, he could finish as an RB1.

Melvin Gordon projects with a ceiling of just 13 points against the Broncos, and Christian McCaffrey projects poorly against the Bears.

Duke Johnson could make for a dangerous flex versus the Titans, whereas Isaiah Crowell is expected to have a decent day.

Jerick McKinnon projects with a median of 10 points and ceiling of 16. The Falcons duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman look like starters but are not expected to explode like the team’s wide receivers.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Le'Veon BellPITCIN1822282210
Kareem HuntKCOAK1318232014
Leonard FournetteJAXIND1316231817
LeSean McCoyBUFTB1114261720
Ezekiel ElliottDALSF918221620
Alvin KamaraNOGB1116211619
Jordan HowardCHICAR1015191520
Chris ThompsonWASPHI1013201521
Devonta FreemanATLNE813171424
Mark IngramNOGB1115171420
Todd GurleyLARARI812141328
DeMarco MurrayTENCLE712171327
Jay AjayiMIANYJ713191327
Doug MartinTBBUF313201232
Isaiah CrowellCLETEN812151226
Chris IvoryJAXIND511191230
Melvin GordonLACDEN711131127
Javorius AllenBALMIN710161129
Tevin ColemanATLNE712141132
Latavius MurrayMINBAL48151135
Jonathan StewartCARCHI710161132
Thomas RawlsSEANYG68141130
Carlos HydeSFDAL311141036
Joe MixonCINPIT69131034
Jerick McKinnonMINBAL610161032
Ty MontgomeryGBNO510131035
Tarik CohenCHICAR59141036
Wayne GallmanNYGSEA59131038
CJ AndersonDENLAC2614844
Marshawn LynchOAKKC3412844
Frank GoreINDJAX589839
Charles SimsTBBUF3413844
Christian McCaffreyCARCHI2710746
Duke JohnsonCLETEN2610746
Giovani BernardCINPIT369744
Derrick HenryTENCLE259747
Marlon MackINDJAX4610743
Jacquizz RodgersTBBUF3511746
James WhiteNEATL359647
Samaje PerineWASPHI347656
Matt ForteNYJMIA357653
LeGarrette BlountPHIWAS478646
Adrian PetersonARILAR269648
Jalen RichardOAKKC359653
Robert TurbinINDJAX269645
Andre EllingtonARILAR135556
Aaron JonesGBNO247553
Elijah McGuireNYJMIA238553
JD McKissicSEANYG127557
Matt BreidaSFDAL248555
Deandre WashingtonOAKKC235554
Jamaal CharlesDENLAC236552
Charcandrick WestKCOAK237558
Mike GillisleeNEATL025465
Orleans DarkwaNYGSEA017465
Mike TolbertBUFTB125468
Jeremy HillCINPIT136459
Dion LewisNEATL246455
Damien WilliamsMIANYJ136462
Corey ClementPHIWAS013372
Kerwynn WilliamsARILAR005371
Malcolm BrownLARARI015372
Shane VereenNYGSEA023272
Eddie LacySEANYG013274
Kenjon BarnerPHIWAS025273
Travaris CadetNYJMIA002281
Benjamin CunninghamCHICAR012281
Devontae BookerDENLAC113274
Alfred MorrisDALSF012279
Kenyan DrakeMIANYJ003276
Alex CollinsBALMIN001190

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant and Adam Thielen project as the week’s best WRs. Usual suspects Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, and Mike Evans are also primed for big games.

Julio Jones is expected to have his way with New England’s defense, and Taylor Gabriel projects as a top-10 WR. In fact, his comparables have been more successful than Jones’ when facing defenses similar to the Patriots.

Cooper Kupp projects with a high ceiling but low floor against the Cardinals. Similarly, Doug Baldwin is forecasted with a ceiling of 18 points but a floor of just three.

Demaryius Thomas will likely see increased volume in the absence of Emmanuel Sanders. He’ll need it as the GLSP forecasts him with a floor of six points and ceiling of 13 versus the Chargers.

John Brown merits flex consideration with a ceiling of 16 points. Tyrell Williams, Devin Funchess, and Robby Anderson also deserve serious consideration.

TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Chris Hogan aren’t guaranteed starters this weekend.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Dez BryantDALSF1321252019
Adam ThielenMINBAL1217231826
Mike EvansTBBUF1015241728
Julio JonesATLNE915201631
Antonio BrownPITCIN1017221628
AJ GreenCINPIT915241631
Jarvis LandryMIANYJ1114201530
Rishard MatthewsTENCLE614181537
Taylor GabrielATLNE1016211531
Robby AndersonNYJMIA916201537
DeSean JacksonTBBUF1115171431
Brandon LaFellCINPIT713181437
Stefon DiggsMINBAL814191436
Michael CrabtreeOAKKC1114161334
Jordy NelsonGBNO711191338
Brandin CooksNEATL1014151334
Larry FitzgeraldARILAR611181343
Jamison CrowderWASPHI715181337
Kenny StillsMIANYJ814171335
Doug BaldwinSEANYG310181250
Pierre GarconSFDAL712171244
Randall CobbGBNO711201244
Devin FunchessCARCHI611171243
Davante AdamsGBNO713161242
Cooper KuppLARARI612181242
JJ NelsonARILAR514161241
Michael ThomasNOGB611141145
Terrelle PryorWASPHI812151142
Tyrell WilliamsLACDEN69171154
Willie SneadNOGB811151143
Keenan AllenLACDEN610131054
Chris HoganNEATL610121047
Tyreek HillKCOAK69141051
Kelvin BenjaminCARCHI69131047
Emmanuel SandersDENLAC59131054
Danny AmendolaNEATL710141047
John BrownARILAR58161052
Cole BeasleyDALSF48141054
Marqise LeeJAXIND79131046
TY HiltonINDJAX6812958
Alshon JefferyPHIWAS4913953
Demaryius ThomasDENLAC6713957
Amari CooperOAKKC5813956
Ricardo LouisCLETEN6711957
Tyler LockettSEANYG4713953
Ted GinnNOGB3714959
Terrance WilliamsDALSF4913956
Breshad PerrimanBALMIN41012955
Martavis BryantPITCIN5610859
Donte MoncriefINDJAX5710860
Mike WallaceBALMIN5711762
Jermaine KearseNYJMIA479764
Jaron BrownARILAR469762
Sammy WatkinsLARARI3611764
Kendall WrightCHICAR259766
Adam HumphriesTBBUF2510769
Jeremy KerleyNYJMIA579764
Josh BellamyCHICAR369763
Tyler BoydCINPIT4710761
Eli RogersPITCIN469764
Geronimo AllisonGBNO3610769
Robert WoodsLARARI358678
Justin HardyATLNE2311675
Seth RobertsOAKKC359671
Michael FloydMINBAL247678
Brandon ColemanNOGB2510669
Kamar AikenINDJAX247674
Aldrick RobinsonSFDAL3510668
Paul RichardsonSEANYG248581
Eric DeckerTENCLE347571
Nelson AgholorPHIWAS046587
Juju Smith-SchusterPITCIN368571
Travis BenjaminLACDEN137579
Bennie FowlerDENLAC137585
Kasen WilliamsCLETEN147582
Russell ShepardCARCHI247578
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKKC347572
Phillip DorsettNEATL248576
Allen HurnsJAXIND039487
Marquise GoodwinSFDAL246481
Trent TaylorSFDAL045485
Josh DoctsonWASPHI016491
Zay JonesBUFTB0243101
Torrey SmithPHIWAS024394
Brice ButlerDALSF023395
Travis RudolphNYGSEA0002123
Andre HolmesBUFTB0222104
Roger LewisNYGSEA0032106
Rashard HigginsCLETEN013299
Ryan GrantWASPHI024299
Tavarres KingNYGSEA023299
Keelan ColeJAXIND014298
Taywan TaylorTENCLE0152100
Chester RogersINDJAX024297
Kaelin ClayBUFTB0032106
Brandon TateBUFTB013298
Jakeem GrantMIANYJ0011118
Tavon AustinLARARI0121110
Tre McBrideCHICAR0031108
Curtis SamuelCARCHI0021107
De'Anthony ThomasKCOAK0011113
Demarcus RobinsonKCOAK0021110
Laquon TreadwellMINBAL0000131

Tight End

Zach Miller has helped out teams in need of a tight end all season and will continue to do so this weekend. In fact, the GLSP projects him with the highest ceiling of all TEs. Fellow Bear, Dion Sims, comes with a wide range of outcomes but also has the potential for a great game against the Panthers.

Austin Hooper, like the rest of the Falcons passing game, could explode. With a high-end projection of 20 points and median of 12, he’s in line for a great game.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins will remain a starter against the Dolphins, and one of the Chargers TEs will likely finish as a starter.

Jordan Reed projects with a limited ceiling of only 10 points, and Martellus Bennett and Jared Cook could be in for challenging outings.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Zach MillerCHICAR614221517
Rob GronkowskiNEATL712161414
Zach ErtzPHIWAS915211414
Travis KelceKCOAK812181412
Kyle RudolphMINBAL812211413
Austin HooperATLNE612201317
Delanie WalkerTENCLE710151216
Evan EngramNYGSEA612161116
Austin Seferian-JenkinsNYJMIA69131018
Jimmy GrahamSEANYG79131018
Hunter HenryLACDEN510151022
Antonio GatesLACDEN710131014
Jack DoyleINDJAX4616921
Benjamin WatsonBALMIN5812922
Jason WittenDALSF3612826
George KittleSFDAL4710824
Dion SimsCHICAR1615830
Jordan ReedWASPHI4510723
Cameron BrateTBBUF4510726
Jared CookOAKKC259726
Ed DicksonCARCHI4710726
Charles ClayBUFTB479626
Martellus BennettGBNO359628
Coby FleenerNOGB2410633
Jermaine GreshamARILAR359628
David NjokuCLETEN247629
Garrett CelekSFDAL247630
Vance McDonaldPITCIN468624
Tyler KroftCINPIT348530
AJ DerbyDENLAC347535
Jonnu SmithTENCLE249535
Josh HillNOGB256537
Trey BurtonPHIWAS2410532
Seth DeValveCLETEN138438
Vernon DavisWASPHI246439
Luke WillsonSEANYG026440
Gerald EverettLARARI135440
Lance KendricksGBNO245434
Julius ThomasMIANYJ024345
Jesse JamesPITCIN024346
Marcedes LewisJAXIND025344
OJ HowardTBBUF033342
Maxx WilliamsBALMIN025347
Demetrius HarrisKCOAK023343
Tyler HigbeeLARARI003254
Nick BoyleBALMIN004252
Virgil GreenDENLAC002257
Troy NiklasARILAR002247
Rhett EllisonNYGSEA002152

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird, but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

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  1. Not to mention, performances such as Joe Flacco’s negative three points in Week 3 are very hard to forecast but hurt the averages. Also, I haven’t removed players that got injured during the course of the game from these averages.  (back)
  2. Where it made sense, I tweaked the search to include only 2017 games. Further, certain players whose health is questionable for the coming week have been omitted from the results.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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