Wide Receiver Targets: Analyzing the Top 30

Did you know that 10 wide receivers had double digit targets in Week 1? Fantasy football owners are looking for statistical certainty week in and week out. Many will use this information to make lineup decisions, determine which players to prioritize when making waiver wire decisions, or to identify potential trade targets. I will share a secret with you. Targets per game, receptions per game, and yards per game are some of the most predictable statistics for WRs. The introduction to this in-season series laid down the foundation and provided readers a line of sight our projected WR target leaders in 2017. Last week we examined WRs you could target by examining our Sim Scores. This week we will analyze the target numbers for Sunday’s slate of games.


Jacob Rickrode has written about the same WRs finishing in the top 24:
Nearly 63 percent of the 192 WR1 seasons since 2000 are on this grid. Twenty-six is a relatively small number of WRs when you consider around 150 WRs will register at least one catch every single year. Short and simple, these 26 have dominated the position.
Rickrode Elite 26 What was a key ingredient of the success that these WRs had? Not all of them played with elite quarterbacks, but there is a strong correlation of top WR1 seasons and a high number of targets per game. Targets Week 1 Rickrode also highlighted other WRs that could join this list with one more top-12 finish. rickrode almost elite I have also included the number of targets per game for these WRs. targets 2 Week 1It is easy to get intoxicated by certain WRs after monster performances or disenchanted with others after they fail to meet your expectations. Have you ever made a lineup decision you have regretted? You can reduce this bias by focusing on the targets per game of a WR and snaps played.


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By Eric Moody | @EricNMoody | Archive

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  1. I guess I'll be that guy and bring up one of your "demotion" candidates--Kenny Britt. Small sample size, coach speak, etc, but given his production and the post-game comments, as an owner of him in every league, what's to be done at this point? His trade value is zero in my leagues (having been endlessly teased for taking him in the first place), so does he warrant dropping in a waiver bid for the Cohen/Williams RB types?

    Probably premature panic, but given RotoViz's endless praise for him all Summer, I know I can't be the only one who is mulling this over.

  2. How says:

    I'm personally ready to drop him almost all over. He looked well behind Coleman in the pecking order in the preseason, and he was well behind in week 1. Also, if your leaguemates are as low on him as you say (and as low as mine are), then he's probably pretty safe on waivers at this point.

    Sad to say, I think Britt is looking to be a bit of a bust. Coleman seems to be getting those looks while he's healthy.

  3. Guys... its just week 1! If Britt makes that catch, it's a whole different narrative today. And week 1 target distributions do not necessarily a season make; just think about Golden Tate and Marvin Jones over the first few weeks of last year.

    As a Britt owner I am also crying myself to sleep, don't get me wrong. But I think we all (myself included) need to take a deep breath.

  4. How says:

    Okay, okay, fair enough. I agree with you in some sense, but it's tough given how this seems more a symptom of a trend (with Britt being unloved in Cleveland for weeks now) than an aberration.

  5. I don't disagree, Jesse. I'm not super-inclined to dump him this week for anyone on Arizona, and unsure if I'm willing to drop major FAAB coin for Cohen given my decent RB depth (various combinations of Jacquizz, Martin, Riddick, Coleman, West, etc). But I asked mainly as a thought exercise into how long the general community thinks hanging on to Britt is reasonable.

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