Advice

Week 4 Air Yards Buy Low Receivers

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

Last week was an exceptional one for the model. Many of the players identified by the Buy Low model not only exceeded their per game averages, but they exploded into week winning performances.

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Last year the model was best at identifying players going into Week 3 as well, so early season is when it shines. This week the out of sample r-squared for the model is 0.53. The stats listed in the table are per-game averages.

BUY LOW LIST 

Name Tar RACR MS Air Tgt Share Predict Actual Diff
Marqise Lee 7.7 0.58 0.39 0.26 11.1 8.4 -2.7
Amari Cooper 7.7 0.48 0.38 0.25 10.5 8.7 -1.8
Robby Anderson 6.0 0.57 0.41 0.21 10.3 9.8 -0.5
Rashard Higgins 8.5 0.61 0.18 0.19 10.3 9.8 -0.5
John Brown 9.0 0.26 0.27 0.19 9.8 7.2 -2.6
Martavis Bryant 6.0 0.33 0.37 0.16 9.7 8.8 -0.9
Devin Funchess 6.3 0.62 0.31 0.21 9.5 8.2 -1.3
Terrelle Pryor 6.3 0.52 0.34 0.20 9.4 7.2 -2.2
Robert Woods 5.3 0.86 0.31 0.19 9.3 9.0 -0.3
Adam Humphries 6.5 0.53 0.19 0.18 9.0 8.3 -0.7

Notes

  • Marqise Lee returns to the list for another week after turning in another game with good volume and few fantasy points. His MS Air of 25 percent Week 3 coupled with a target share of 21 percent indicate a big game is probably coming.
  • Amari Cooper  had a terrible Week 3. Full stop. But he is still getting – by far- the most looks with the most yards behind those looks on the Raiders. If you think he isn’t good, that’s one thing. But if you bought into his talent as a first-round pick with impeccable credentials from college, fading him now is just silly. Buy.
  • Robby Anderson is on a terrible team, and he is getting a ton of volume. He’s also scoring touchdowns and he’s cheap. What’s not to like?
  • Rashard Higgins had a terrible game after being owned by everyone last week in DFS. The hate is visceral. But even in a terrible game that saw Kenny Britt awaken from the dead, he still saw 6 targets. He is risker than the others on this list, but he’s still a guy to stash for upside on your bench and to consider moving forward in DFS. He will probably never be as high owned as he was Week 3 ever again.
  • Devin Funchess is an easy call with Kelvin Benjamin out just based on his situation. Still, there are other reasons for optimism. He was getting volume prior to the Benjamin injury, and his efficiency is decent. He just needs to convert more of this volume into touchdowns.
  • Terrelle Pryor is the guy on this list that will test your patience the most. Is he any good? Should we cut bait? The model says no, he will get better. Am I confident in this? No, but that’s why I let the math guide me on these types of things. I’m utterly fallible – and so is the model – but it’s probably better than me. Keep starting him.

Author Details
Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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