Advice

Week 3 Rest-of-Season Mock

Unless you’re sending or receiving trade offers, there’s little impetus to consider player values after the fantasy football season begins. You set your lineup, make your waiver claims, and sweat it out from Thursday to Monday. But rethinking player values can help you make a championship-winning trade, and now–before everyone’s values have settled–is the perfect time to strike. To get you started, we gathered a few RotoViz writers for a rest-of-season, four-round redraft mock. We assumed a 12-team, PPR league, starting 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 flex. Enjoy!

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By Brian Malone | @BrianMaloneFF | Archive

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  1. Let's compare the first four rounds, side-by-side:

    RBs, as a group, lost 5 spots (down from 22 selections to 17 spots) over the first 4 rounds, and we just had a 2 week period wherein scoring is down to 1993 levels, and one of the main culprits is putrid QB play. No guarantees that trend will continue but still... the goal is to win the championship, not to avoid the cellar.

    Plus, RBs on putrid offenses seemed to have been dinged harder than WRs. AJ Green is at the exact same draft spot and his team hasn't scored a TD yet. I know Lazor is taking over now but I doubt he can step onto the field and fill the gaping hole that Andrew Whitworth left behind. Same goes for ODB and the Giants.

    As far as individual players, any Chiefs not named Kelce is undervalued. Kareem is RB 3 (8th overall) in the new mock but isn't he the highest scoring player in fantasy after 2 weeks, even higher than every QB? I'm a Chiefs fan so I'm biased as hell. But AJ Green before Kareem? Kareem may come back to the curve but Kareem has a much greater chance of being the FF MVP this year.

    Marshawn is the lead back on the highest score in the NFL and he lost 19 spots from pre-season to the new mock?

    Ajayi should be getting more love. Don't care if it's bone-on-bone in his knee. He's already had his bye week.

    Is Christian McCaffery really an RB 1 for the rest of the season? I'm not sure he's the most valuable back on his own team.

    Gillislee and Doug Martin should be in the top 40. Martin has one game of his suspension left (but no bye) and no guarantees he takes his job back but his ceiling is much higher than Larry Fitz, even if he starts drinking again.

    Every Viking pass catcher is rated too high. The Bradford news broke today but it's Sam Bradford. Glass. Too much love for Alshon and not enough hate for Terrelle Pryor Sr. And Larry Fitz again. Not sure he's a WR1 on his own team anymore, let alone WR 28 overall.

    That's all I got. I'm out of bullets.

  2. The criticism of the Hilton pick is fair. I wanted to undo that like five minutes after I did it. I actually started to type Tyreek and then just didn't really want to be the guy who took both Zeke and Tyreek in a mock, so I quickly took Hilton instead.

    That said, Colts have used two QBs in two weeks and we sometimes expect terrible situations to stay terrible when we maybe should expect some regression. Not to league average, but if the Colts can be a below average rather than a terrible passing team, Hilton should be able to put up solid numbers. He's a very good WR, arguably better than Terrelle Pryor who was a WR2 last year in Cleveland. So taking Hilton at WR24 has outs both for a similar outcome to that and then for Luck to potentially come back, which I don't think is a 0% possibility as most seem to be considering it to be.

    Re: McCaffrey - he's scored 16.2 PPR points on just receptions and receiving yards thus far. He's played 70% and 64% of the snaps in their two games. We've seen some stuff that suggests the talk of the offense making significant changes to work for him is possible in the short term. (Then there's the wide open TD he had last week that Cam missed him on, that I believe is completed >90% of the time and I'm thus willing to treat McCaffrey almost as if we've already seen him score, at least as far as considering future performance.)

  3. Thank you. Reading your comments both fascinating and bizarre. Your are definitely the expert in this conversation. Now I'm going to ramble (point-counterpoint) a bit on 2 players you highlighted. Everyone can probably stop reading here.

    If you and I started a football team, and got the rest of the RotoViz staff together, we could beat the Jets. Marshawn is RB 23 and has clearly been on a pitch count, which implies they're saving him for the high leverage games later in the year. Bully for FF owners today and tomorrow. One already has superior performance (better than AJ, ODB, and Jordy) in the bag but can make a viable argument for strong, predictable performance in the future.

    Marshawn will probably break his leg next week but less touches = less risk of injury = less chance of schadenfreude theories working. Raiders had a lot of rushing TDs last year, still have a great offensive line, and come Red Zone time, I think it's reasonable to believe it's Marshawn and Crabtree getting the looks. Amari had his chance week 1 and turned it into a drop-o-rama. Those 2 midgets behind Marshawn will get TDs but they're more likely to be the 20+ yarders variety.

    Do I need to say anything other than he's white? smiley

    JStew was playable week 1 and with Buffalo's D line, week 2 was a predictable "sit". Performance thus far is comparable to many high WR draft picks (AJ, ODB, Jordy, Dez), and more predictable.

    Zach Zenner East's play hasn't been inspiring. He was missed on the wide-open play but the 2 downs before that were goal line rushes for JStew. For either of them to return decent value, Carolina's gonna have to turn it around from the Super Bowl hangover year. I think better chance than not, they do.
    2-0 and haven't played well. If they start playing well, I think it benefits JStew more. Tolbert's fat a$$ is gone and with Cam's shoulder being what it is, reasonable to assume he doesn't vulture as much, if at all. After a year where rushing TDs were in vogue, this bodes well for JStew.

    Conclusion
    The Signal and the Noise is open for interpretation for everyone. For me, the signal isn't as much about being WR heavy this year. I think the "intent" of teams will be cram it down your throat rather than throw it over your head, as well as a strong eye to the future - whether that be young, inexperienced players on roster or outright losing to get a better draft pick. I'm planning accordingly.

  4. Stefon Diggs = 1
    Me = 0

  5. Haha no worries, mate. You got to make a stand sometimes. Football is pretty unpredictable but you don't win if you don't try.

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