Advice

Week 2 Air Yards Buy Low WRs

Each week I break out air yards data to attempt to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production.

It’s the first week of the year, so skepticism about future performance is warranted. Still, there are a couple super contrarian names at the top of the model’s list. Let’s dive right in.

BUY LOW LIST FOR WEEK 2

Name Pos Tm Tar TD Rec Rec_Yards Air_Yards Predict Actual_FP Diff
Marqise Lee WR JAC 4 0 0 0 73 9.7 0 -9.7
Breshad Perriman WR BAL 4 0 1 5 29 9.4 1.5 -7.9
Chris Hogan WR NE 5 0 1 8 103 9.6 1.8 -7.8
Tyler Lockett WR SEA 3 0 1 8 61 9.0 1.8 -7.2
Brandon Marshall WR NYG 4 0 1 10 59 9.0 2 -7.0
Martavis Bryant WR PIT 6 0 2 14 89 10.1 3.4 -6.7
Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 5 0 1 25 82 10.2 3.5 -6.7
Rex Burkhead RB NE 3 0 1 8 39 8.2 1.8 -6.4
Kenny Britt WR CLE 3 0 1 13 51 8.7 2.3 -6.4
Tyler Boyd WR CIN 4 0 1 11 10 8.2 2.1 -6.1
Torrey Smith WR PHI 3 0 1 30 115 10.1 4 -6.1
Zay Jones WR BUF 4 0 1 21 44 9.1 3.1 -6.0
Duke Johnson RB CLE 5 0 2 20 87 10.0 4 -6.0
Eric Decker WR TEN 8 0 3 10 52 9.7 4 -5.7
Jimmy Graham TE SEA 7 0 3 8 15 9.5 3.8 -5.7
Marquise Goodwin WR SF 6 0 3 21 115 10.8 5.1 -5.7
ArDarius Stewart WR NYJ 5 0 2 10 25 8.7 3 -5.7
Jamison Crowder WR WAS 7 0 3 14 83 10.0 4.4 -5.6
Kevin White WR CHI 4 0 2 6 12 8.2 2.6 -5.6
Stephen Anderson TE HOU 5 0 2 14 35 8.9 3.4 -5.5
Greg Olsen TE CAR 4 0 2 18 40 9.0 3.8 -5.2
Eli Rogers WR PIT 4 0 2 11 15 8.3 3.1 -5.2
Eric Ebron TE DET 3 0 2 9 16 7.9 2.9 -5.0
Rob Gronkowski TE NE 6 0 2 33 113 10.3 5.3 -5.0
Dez Bryant WR DAL 9 0 2 43 110 11.3 6.3 -5.0
Tyler Higbee TE LA 3 0 2 17 22 8.4 3.7 -4.7
Kyle Juszczyk FB SF 4 0 2 17 9 8.3 3.7 -4.6
Robby Anderson WR NYJ 8 0 4 22 79 10.8 6.2 -4.6
Lance Kendricks TE GB 4 0 2 18 11 8.3 3.8 -4.5
Brice Butler WR DAL 3 0 1 30 43 8.5 4 -4.5
Jermaine Gresham TE ARI 4 0 3 15 49 8.7 4.5 -4.2
Donte Moncrief WR IND 4 0 1 50 74 10.1 6 -4.1
Alshon Jeffery WR PHI 7 0 3 38 116 10.9 6.8 -4.1
Ameer Abdullah RB DET 4 0 3 11 6 8.1 4.1 -4.0
Joe Mixon RB CIN 3 0 3 15 5 8.2 4.5 -3.7
John Brown WR ARI 9 0 4 32 121 10.9 7.2 -3.7
T.J. Jones WR DET 4 0 2 32 49 8.9 5.2 -3.7
Brandon LaFell WR CIN 5 0 3 24 16 8.9 5.4 -3.5
Davante Adams WR GB 7 0 3 47 127 11.2 7.7 -3.5
Tyler Ervin RB HOU 5 0 4 18 29 9.1 5.8 -3.3
Ricardo Louis WR CLE 3 0 2 32 25 8.5 5.2 -3.3
Josh Bellamy WR CHI 4 0 3 27 24 8.9 5.7 -3.2
Chris Conley WR KC 4 0 2 43 52 9.5 6.3 -3.2
Jack Doyle TE IND 3 0 2 41 31 9.2 6.1 -3.1
Danny Woodhead RB BAL 3 0 3 33 22 9.4 6.3 -3.1
T.Y. Hilton WR IND 7 0 3 57 101 11.7 8.7 -3.0

 

Notes

  • Marqise Lee could end up being the beneficiary of the Allen Robinson injury. Allen Hurns had as many targets as Lee, but Lee’s aDOT dwarfed Hurns 18.3 to 11. The model likes Lee to score 9.7 points per game for the rest of the season given his volume and likes Hurns to score 9.8. It’s a toss-up, but the buy low here based on just one week is clearly Lee.
  • Breshad Perriman continues to be hard to like, especially given Joe Flacco’s health, but based on his volume he is likely better than what he showed Week 1. The model likes Jeremy Maclin rest of season over Perriman, but if his opportunity and health remain he could put up some good weeks.
  • Chris Hogan, if he moves to the slot, could help win someone a GPP. If an owner in your league is already worried and wants to bail, scoop him up.
  • Marquise Goodwin had six targets, one of which was a sure TD that fell through his hands. I love Goodwin in GPP tournaments this week and think he has a good chance of actually having a decent floor given the volume he saw from the San Francisco offense.
  • Dez Bryant is a perennial buy low since he almost always sees only a few targets. If they don’t become catches one week, he’s always a good bounce back candidate the following week. His market share of air yards – the strongest predictor of rest of season production we have in Week 1 – was extremely robust at 40 percent. Buy low if you can.
  • TY Hilton owners should remain calm. Hilton earned seven targets from a terrible QB and saw over 100 air yards behind them. His aDOT of 14.4 is robust and if teams start to look past the Colts due to their ineptitude he will be the main beneficiary.

Top 10 ROS

Just for shits and giggles, here are the top-10 receivers the Buy Low Model spit out for the remainder of the season, based on just one week. Remember, the Buy Low model is tuned on volume, not accuracy. Good luck this week.

Name Pos Tm aDOT RACR MS Air Tgt Share WOPR Predict
Antonio Brown WR PIT 8.2 2.02 0.39 0.31 0.73 14.8
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 10.5 0.33 0.54 0.44 1.05 14.3
Amari Cooper WR OAK 5.5 0.86 0.37 0.41 0.87 13.0
Terrelle Pryor WR WAS 15.1 0.4 0.45 0.28 0.72 13.0
Tyreek Hill WR KC 11.8 1.41 0.36 0.23 0.6 13.0
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 11.1 0.51 0.32 0.27 0.63 13.0
Golden Tate WR DET 5.7 1.57 0.21 0.29 0.59 12.9
A.J. Green WR CIN 11.2 0.66 0.48 0.32 0.82 12.6
Randall Cobb WR GB 3.3 1.98 0.14 0.31 0.57 12.6
Pierre Garcon WR SF 9.5 0.85 0.37 0.29 0.69 12.6

Author Details
Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

Subscribe to the best.

By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply