DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

The Week 1 RotoViz DraftKings Play of the Week: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Designed to give you our best advice for taking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, the Play of the Week contest pits writer against writer, using FantasyLabs great tools – TrendsPlus/MinusVegas Lines, and more.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of daily fantasy and sports analytics tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free.

Check out the introduction for the nuts and bolts of how this works. The basic idea is that our analysts are going to do their best to recommend lightly-owned players that could smash their expected fantasy points in Week 1. The goal? To help you take down a GPP. To make sure we are well incentivized, the analyst with the best score each week wins a handsome cash prize.

Week 1 DraftKings Plays of the Week

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF
@CmonTumbleweed Carson Wentz Devonta Freeman Pierre Garcon Zach Ertz Atlanta Defense
Anthony Amico Marcus Mariota LeSean McCoy Rishard Matthews Austin Hooper Atlanta Falcons
Ben Bauer Derek Carr Tevin Coleman Larry Fitzgerald Tyler Eifert Pittsburgh Defense
Ben Gretch Carson Palmer Carlos Hyde Larry Fitzgerald Zach Miller Los Angeles Rams Defense
Blair Andrews Matthew Stafford C.J. Prosise J.J. Nelson Eric Ebron Cincinnati Defense
Brian Malone Aaron Rodgers Darren Sproles Eric Decker Eric Ebron Atlanta Defense
Colm Kelly Marcus Mariota David Johnson Eric Decker Kyle Rudolph Atlanta Falcons
Dave Caban Scott Tolzien Rob Kelley Doug Baldwin Jason Witten Detroit Defense
Devin McIntyre Kirk Cousins Ameer Abdullah Terrelle Pryor Delanie Walker Pittsburgh Defense
Drew Heinl Marcus Mariota Todd Gurley Pierre Garcon Zach Ertz Los Angeles Rams Defense
Eric Braun Cam Newton Ty Montgomery Eric Decker Austin Hooper Dallas Defense
George Fitopoulos Russell Wilson David Johnson Paul Richardson Eric Ebron Pittsburgh Defense
Hasan Rahim Derek Carr Carlos Hyde Paul Richardson Jordan Reed New York Giants Defense
Heith Krueger Russell Wilson Carlos Hyde Randall Cobb Zach Ertz Atlanta Defense
Jacob Rickrode Dak Prescott Eddie Lacy Marvin Jones C.J. Fiedorowicz Buffalo Defense
Joe Paeno Carson Wentz Darren Sproles Kendall Wright Zach Ertz Houston Defense
John Lapinski Deshone Kizer Carlos Hyde Kendall Wright Zach Ertz Cincinnati Defense
Matt Wispe Marcus Mariota Theo Riddick Pierre Garcon Tyler Eifert Los Angeles Rams Defense
Mike Beers Brian Hoyer Christian McCaffrey Rishard Matthews Zach Ertz Philadelphia Defense
Pat James Derek Carr Jonathan Stewart Rishard Matthews Charles Clay Philadelphia Defense
RotoDoc Aaron Rodgers Carlos Hyde John Brown Zach Ertz Dallas Defense
Ryan Bobbitt Russell Wilson Todd Gurley Kelvin Benjamin Zach Miller Los Angeles Rams Defense
Tod Burros Mike Glennon Chris Thompson Kendall Wright Gerald Everett Dallas Defense


@CmonTumbleweed
  –  Ownership of the Falcons D should be low. According to Fantasy Labs, Atlanta’s defense produced 10.3 hurries per game, 0.25 hurries per attempt, and over 2 expected sacks per game in 2016 (all near league-highs). That pressure could lead to huge Mike Glennon errors.

Anthony Amico  –  At the time of this writing, Matthews ranks fourth on Fantasy Labs’ Tournament Model for WRs. Rookie Corey Davis will be used sparingly in his debut, and Eric Decker is expected to see most of his work out of the slot. That leaves Matthews in a role similar to what he has last season, in a game that has a total over 50. He also comes in at a cheap cost.

Ben Bauer  –  If you’re looking to fade very high projected ownership of the Rams D, Pittsburgh is projected for roughly 1/4 as much ownership but is playing a rookie QB making his first career start.

Ben Gretch  –  There are available targets for Chicago, and Zach Miller saw a 19 percent share in games played last year (league high for TE: 23 percent). Atlanta has the sixth most favorable FantasyLabs Opponent +/- on the slate and Miller is a good leverage play on uber-values Kendall Wright and Zach Ertz.

Blair Andrews  –  Nelson has caught a TD pass in four of his last five games, and seen double-digit targets in two of his last three. He’s always a threat for a big play, and Fantasy Labs currently projects his ownership at less than one percent.

Brian Malone  –  Darren Sproles has the fourth-highest expected +/- on the slate, and I expect him to get plenty of targets in a shootout against Washington.

Colm Kelly  –  I used Fantasy Labs Draft Kings Player pool tool. It became clear that Decker is a huge value this week. He is the 29th most expensive WR based on Draft kings salary, while he ranks No. 2 in the Fantasy Labs model based on opportunity. I liked the value and the match up prior to using the Fantasy Labs tools, but after using them I LOVE it!

Dave Caban  –  Scott Tolzien will be facing a Rams defense that provides the third most favorable QB matchup based on Fantasy Labs plus/minus. With a bargain rating of 80 percent, he comes at a lower price on DraftKings than other DFS platforms. His projected ownership is under one percent making him a nice contrarian play if things break his way this weekend.

Devin McIntyre  –  Abdullah is projected for a ceiling of 21.8 pts at only $4300, cheaper than Theo Riddick. That’s the sixth highest plus/minus with only 5-8 percent projected ownership.

Drew Heinl  –  Garcon is tied for the most pro trends on Fantasy Labs (seven). He’s the 20th priced WR, but is projected for the 13th most points. He was a target monster in Washington and I expect him to get even more looks in San Francisco.

Eric Braun  –  Fantasylabs models tool projects the Dallas defense to be less than one percent owned. I think the upside is there for a pick with Dallas being the favorite. After recording two touchdowns from punt returns in 2015, Ryan Switzer was shut out last season. He’s set to return kickoffs and punts again this season and it’s probably just a matter of time.

George Fitopoulos  –  Let’s not forget how Richardson scored double digits in three of his last four games last season (including postseason). He has an implied point total of 7.6 thanks to his $3,700 salary so all you need is for him to find pay dirt once to make value. Richardson has been running as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver.

Hasan Rahim  –  Paul Richardson is top 10 in projected plus/minus on Fantasy Labs and is projected for 0-1 percent ownership. He should be able to beat his implied points total of 7.58, especially if the game comes anywhere close to the Vegas total of 51.

Heith Krueger  –  With a projected ownership percentage of 2-4 percent by Fantasy Labs and ceiling of 24 points by their projections, Cobb projects to be a fantastic GPP play if the Packers return to their early 2016 form.

Jacob Rickrode  –  Elliott gets all the talk but Dak will have to carry his team in week 1. Fiedorowicz one of highest rated TEs on FantasyLabs this week.

Joe Paeno  –  Expect Darren Sproles to see a heavy workload which is why his PTS/Sal value is tied for second in WK1  & he is rated fourth for points above expectation according to Fantasy Labs Tools.

John Lapinski  –  The Cincinnati defense has the seventh best projected plus/minus in the FantasyLabs Tournament model, but is projected to be at, or below, one percent ownership. Baltimore’s offense is already decimated by injuries and their QB has barely practiced. Give me the Bengals as home favorites.

Matt Wispe  –  Using the Fantasy Labs models tool, Eifert is projected with the highest ceiling among all TEs in the slate. Additionally, in his Pro trends, he’s listed among TEs with at least three receptions per game over his past 16 games. This trend has an average plus/minus of 2.31.

Mike Beers  –  Tennessee is tied for the fourth highest implied total on the slate, in a matchup with Oakland that could easily be a shootout.  I expect Rishard Matthews to be Mariota’s most targeted receiver, with a price tag of only $4,200.  That’s good for Labs’ third highest WR plus/minus projection, at lower projected ownership than either of the receivers ahead of him.

Pat James  –  FantasyLabs projection model has Jonathan Stewart pegged for 2-4 percent ownership. They also have him as the highest projected ceiling of any running back at 5K or less. The Panthers have a 26.5 point implied team total and are a 5.5 point favorite. That game script sets up well for Stewart to have some clock-eating carries in the second half.

RotoDoc  –  There’s very little to like about John Brown outside of his 20.1 point projected ceiling and his 2-4 percent projected ownership. He has only one pro trend, a meager 24 percent bargain rating, and a negative projected plus/minus. But one thing I do know — Detroit’s defense hasn’t changed much, and they perform much better against the short ball than they do the long ball. Larry Fitzgerald will be the chalk, and his depth of target has come down over his career. This reminds me of when Tavon Austin was the chalk in Week 6 of last year, in the slot, with his short depth of target. A guy by the name of Kenny Britt was the pivot play that went off for 35 DK points. The situations aren’t identical, because Fitzgerald is good and Austin is terrible, but they are similar enough I’m willing to give it a go.

Ryan Bobbitt   –  Miller had the highest score for TEs using the +/- trend tool at Fantasy Labs and is cheaper than other popular options. Combined with a strong GLSP projection, Miller should be a strong low-owned play with upside.

Tod Burros  –  I used the Fantasy Labs projection at QB and compared it to the ceiling and Glennon/Hoyer both had the highest upside from expected points. I think Hoyer will be the chalk in this contest so going Glennon which allows me to stack with Kendall Wright. Also while the Falcons have an attacking D that is good for Fantasy scoring they gave up three plus TD’s in six games last year and the Bears are at home.

Frequency Table

QB COUNT RB COUNT WR COUNT TE COUNT DEF COUNT
Marcus Mariota 4 Carlos Hyde 5 Eric Decker 3 Zach Ertz 7 Los Angeles Rams Defense 4
Derek Carr 3 Darren Sproles 2 Kendall Wright 3 Eric Ebron 3 Atlanta Defense 3
Russell Wilson 3 David Johnson 2 Pierre Garcon 3 Austin Hooper 2 Dallas Defense 3
Aaron Rodgers 2 Todd Gurley 2 Rishard Matthews 3 Tyler Eifert 2 Pittsburgh Defense 3
Carson Wentz 2 Ameer Abdullah 1 Paul Richardson 2 Zach Miller 2 Atlanta Falcons 2
Brian Hoyer 1 C.J. Prosise 1 Larry Fitzgerald 2 C.J. Fiedorowicz 1 Cincinnati Defense 2
Cam Newton 1 Chris Thompson 1 Doug Baldwin 1 Charles Clay 1 Philadelphia Defense 2
Dak Prescott 1 Christian McCaffrey 1 J.J. Nelson 1 Delanie Walker 1 Buffalo Defense 1
Deshone Kizer 1 Devonta Freeman 1 John Brown 1 Gerald Everett 1 Detroit Defense 1
Kirk Cousins 1 Eddie Lacy 1 Kelvin Benjamin 1 Jason Witten 1 Houston Defense 1
Matthew Stafford 1 Jonathan Stewart 1 Marvin Jones 1 Jordan Reed 1 New York Giants Defense 1
Mike Glennon 1 LeSean McCoy 1 Randall Cobb 1 Kyle Rudolph 1
Scott Tolzien 1 Rob Kelley 1 Terrelle Pryor 1
Carson Palmer 1 Tevin Coleman 1
Theo Riddick 1
Ty Montgomery 1

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

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