Stealing Signals: Week 4, AFC

We’ve reached a point where many teams have stable enough situations to identify trends, while others have dealt with upheaval that makes carefully parsing the data essential. We looked at the NFC yesterday; here are the actionable notes for the AFC for Week 4. For situations where trends look to be strengthening, we’ll look at comments from prior iterations of this post liberally. That’s not to claim successes or failures; rather, it’s a reference point to recalibrate from and an attempt at limiting redundancy. We’ve covered a lot of ground here over the first couple weeks. Let’s get into it.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Snap Notes: Starters snaps were down across the board (game script) Key Stat: Leonard Fournette – 41.1 ruEP (third most in NFL through three weeks) For the second straight game, Leonard Fournette scored in the fourth quarter of at least a four score game. The first time the Jags were down 27; this time they were up 37. This is, of course, insane. It’s what you do in Madden when you want your top draft pick to win Rookie of the Year. I completely whiffed on the massive workload this preseason. I thought someone like Chris Ivory would get these touches, and T.J. Yeldon would take some of the 12 targets Fournette already has. But last week I drafted Fournette in our rest of season mock for these reasons. It’s important to be flexible, and the value is tremendous while he stays healthy if the Jags are really going to ignore game script. Marcedes Lewis quite obviously had himself a day. You probably don’t need me to tell you turning five targets into three TDs is unsustainable, particularly for a guy who had just four across the first two weeks. His 16.9 receiving fantasy points over expectation reFPOE were third most in Week 3. Marqise Lee again saw more targets than Allen Hurns, and now holds a substantial target lead for the team, though Hurns remains significantly more efficient. Lee’s a great buy low. Signal: Marqise Lee’s targets, Air Yards Noise: Marcedes Lewis’s TDs  

Baltimore Ravens

Snap Notes: Mike Wallace – 86% (71% each of the first two weeks); Javorius Allen – 59%; Terrance West – 17%; Alex Collins – 17% Key Stat: 26 pass attempts per game (lowest in the NFL)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive

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  1. Seeing Tyrell on the image, I opened the link hoping for a GOOD signal on Tyrell, not a negative one. C'mon Ben! stuck_out_tongue

  2. Jason says:

    @BenGretch is TBenji an add - or are his opportunities too difficult to predict?

  3. @FantasyNerd - Really depends on the format, depth of the league. Will be difficult to predict, yeah, but in deep leagues where you play a bunch of WRs, it's better to plug in high-ceiling guys than average efficiency, 5-target types.

    @rriordan - Both are worth it, yeah. And yeah Lee's better right now, but I do like Fuller too. Unless you're just stacked everywhere, in a league like that I'd usually try to make a two-for-one (or even three-for-one) to upgrade a RB spot by giving up someone like DT, because I'm fine playing Lee (and Fuller down the line as well). The reason being DT has market value that's pretty close to his actual value, while Lee/Fuller are clearly being slept on. So you move someone you can get full return for knowing you have these undervalued assets behind them. But first move would be adding those guys, even if it means dropping your kicker and/or DST while you try to work out a deal.

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