PGA Projections and Picks: BMW Championship 2017

Down to 70 golfers, the FedEx Cup Playoffs continue at Conway Farms Golf Club with the BMW Championship. Welcome to another edition of my PGA DFS machine learning model. This week’s event has no cut, so probabilities to make the cut have been eliminated from the projections. The field consists of the best 70 golfers on the PGA Tour this year. There is not much difference in skill separating the top players. On to the model.

BMW Championship Projections

These projections are generated using a combination of statistical simulation and machine learning algorithms. More than 40 factors go into the model, including long-term normalized round score, driving accuracy, driving distance, the proximity of approach shots, temperature and wind velocity, to name a few. Three columns: DK.Pts, MadeCut% and Top10%, are generated using three separate algorithms which all draw from the same underlying data. MadeCut% tends to be the most reliable. Explanation of each column:
  • DK.Pts is the average number of DraftKings points that the player will score.
  • MadeCut% is not applicable this week.
  • Top10% is the percentage/probability of the golfer finishing in the top 10.
  • DK.Sal is the golfer’s DraftKings salary.
  • DK.Value is the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

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By John Gambill | @GamblinJohnny | Archive

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