Advice

Early GLSP Projections – Rishard and Delanie Are Looking Good

On a weekly basis, I’ll be using Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll be posting the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

We got off to a good start last week and the model performed in-line with my expectations. The “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, had an absolute difference of five points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP recorded an average absolute difference of six and a half points.1 The RB GLSP was off by an average absolute difference of four points, the WR GLSP by six and the TE GLSP by five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it..

A Couple of Reminders

GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have wide receivers similar to Doug Baldwin fared against defenses similar to the Packers? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer using a range of outcomes.

I pulled Week 1 data during Monday night’s games, so those results did not get included when running the model for Week 2. As a result, rookies and players that saw limited action in 2016, that played Monday, have been omitted from the tables below.2

Also, the results for rookies and players that missed 2016 are driven based on Week 1 alone. So take the projections for these players with a grain of salt.3

Finally, I haven’t stripped out players that are expected to be inactive or limited due to injury in Week 2.

Quarterback

The QB GLSP places Matt Ryan with the week’s highest projection but a lower floor than you might expect. Conversely, Drew Brees has one of the best floors but a high projection of only 20 points. Matthew Stafford’s  comparables produced the most favorable weekly rankings and he could be in for a second strong week. Kirk Cousins projects with a middle of the road range of outcomes against the Rams. Tyrod Taylor will be facing the Panthers but could make for a strong streaming option. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is expected to struggle. 

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAVG WK RK
Aaron RodgersGBATL1420232012
Tom BradyNENO1316191615
Russell WilsonSEASF1418201813
Matt RyanATLGB1220271913
Marcus MariotaTENJAX1418251813
Cam NewtonCARBUF1417241812
Derek CarrOAKNYJ1316211712
Drew BreesNONE1517201815
Jameis WinstonTBCHI1316191713
Andy DaltonCINHOU714161213
Kirk CousinsWASLAR1015181513
Ben RoethlisbergerPITMIN1620262112
Dak PrescottDALDEN913171313
Sam BradfordMINPIT1215191612
Tyrod TaylorBUFCAR1318221714
Carson PalmerARIIND1316201721
Carson WentzPHIKC1115191516
Matthew StaffordDETNYG1619231910
Eli ManningNYGDET914201518
Philip RiversLACMIA713191315
Alex SmithKCPHI1115181614
Joe FlaccoBALCLE912171314
Trevor SiemianDENDAL1318221718
Jared GoffLARWAS710111011
Ryan FitzpatrickTBCHI912171318
Mike GlennonCHITB012219
Brian HoyerSFSEA2815917
Deshone KizerCLEBAL1116191519
Blake BortlesJAXTEN813161314
Scott TolzienINDARI014324
Matt MooreMIALAC917201520
Tom SavageHOUCIN013333
Josh McCownNYJOAK711141124
Deshaun WatsonHOUCIN59141016

Running Back

Tevin Coleman projects with a nice range of outcomes but it’s important to recognize that it’s inflated by a couple of games; check in with the site GLSP to play around with his game log. Frank Gore has a solid range of outcomes with both his floor and ceiling being in the top-10. Isaiah Crowell could struggle against the Ravens with a five point low-end projection. Lamar Miller has an okay median projection against the Bengals but a limited ceiling and low floor.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Le'Veon BellPITMIN15.317.524.319.17612.72
David JohnsonARIIND13.921.724.921.33610.6
Ezekiel ElliottDALDEN1118.82317.99615.6
LeSean McCoyBUFCAR9.820.222.218.38418.08
Todd GurleyLARWAS6.213.218.912.828.32
Devonta FreemanATLGB1319.425.218.714.44
Jordan HowardCHITB6.911.721.915.02825.04
DeMarco MurrayTENJAX12.31821.517.83215.44
Melvin GordonLACMIA10.418.225.518.6417.84
Jacquizz RodgersTBCHI2.44.18.86.24851.52
Lamar MillerHOUCIN4.811.113.810.66833.44
CJ AndersonDENDAL7.912.320.913.49225.16
Christian McCaffreyCARBUF5.48.310.58.68837.4
Marshawn LynchOAKNYJ0.34.36.34.43258.92
Leonard FournetteJAXTEN1415.525.519.04415.08
Carlos HydeSFSEA8.411.817.313.19224.16
Bilal PowellNYJOAK5.61215.611.72429
Kareem HuntKCPHI16.517.824.420.71212.32
Isaiah CrowellCLEBAL4.511.117.311.79230.36
Ty MontgomeryGBATL3.610.1149.60436.12
Ameer AbdullahDETNYG2.95.89.66.68446
Danny WoodheadBALCLE3.55.49.86.53245.68
Frank GoreINDARI9.512.317.714.87623.08
Theo RiddickDETNYG6.99.81611.91633.44
Mark IngramNONE5.911.117.512.08427.08
Tevin ColemanATLGB6.414.923.215.78823.92
Duke JohnsonCLEBAL35.912.48.21642.72
Jay AjayiMIALAC6.313.718.113.426.8
Rob KelleyWASLAR2.35.510.96.36447.88
Joe MixonCINHOU1.62.54.84.0456.12
Jonathan StewartCARBUF6.212.515.111.50829.72
Terrance WestBALCLE4.67.716.511.43633.24
Darren SprolesPHIKC5.69.817.611.82429.76
Mike GillisleeNENO1.56.212.48.75245.88
Matt ForteNYJOAK7.611.719.812.8626.76
James WhiteNENO35.48.26.39246.72
Paul PerkinsNYGDET0.33.44.32.95665.96
Chris ThompsonWASLAR5.69.112.39.58832.88
Adrian PetersonNONE01.43.22.07272.6
Jamaal CharlesDENDAL0.91.95.63.5264.96
Giovani BernardCINHOU6.110.915.511.55628.16
Shane VereenNYGDET3910.97.99643.4
LeGarrette BlountPHIKC4.99.714.19.78437.12
Eddie LacySEASF0.42.95.83.61661.04
CJ ProsiseSEASF3.26.513.27.95241.6
Jeremy HillCINHOU5.69.914.810.75231.48
Derrick HenryTENJAX1.545.14.22455.12
Latavius MurrayMINPIT6.213.219.812.87628.32
Jalen RichardOAKNYJ46.510.77.36442.08
Robert TurbinINDARI2.43.24.34.10856.44
Rex BurkheadNENO1.345.64.29655.04
Deandre WashingtonOAKNYJ03.89.65.40456.92
Charcandrick WestKCPHI1.94.89.55.7249.24
Wendell SmallwoodPHIKC0.31.46.23.08869.32
Jerick McKinnonMINPIT5.67.9138.74437.72
Dion LewisNENO4.86.38.66.86442.68
Damien WilliamsMIALAC3.44.46.65.74448.16
Marlon MackINDARI2.24.19.15.84849.88
Kerwynn WilliamsARIIND00.63.32.1477.88
Kenyan DrakeMIALAC01.73.92.49273.6
Chris IvoryJAXTEN3.5710.87.653642.64

Wide Receiver

The WR GLSP likes Rishard Matthews and considers him one of the best plays of the week. Brandin Cooks faces his former team on Sunday with a strong range of outcomes. Of course, the GLSP is unaware of his move to New England. Larry Fitzgerald has a surprisingly low floor versus the Colts. Tyreek Hill got off to a booming start but is expected to slow down against the Eagles. In typical fashion, Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson are expected to tear it up.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Antonio BrownPITMIN1520302217
Mike EvansTBCHI1119262024
Jordy NelsonGBATL1117301924
Brandin CooksNENO1318231924
Michael CrabtreeOAKNYJ919261925
TY HiltonINDARI919241931
Davante AdamsGBATL1417231920
Julio JonesATLGB1017241830
Cooper KuppLARWAS1014211827
Golden TateDETNYG1216221824
Amari CooperOAKNYJ819231727
Larry FitzgeraldARIIND1317191725
AJ GreenCINHOU1116241731
Doug BaldwinSEASF1018221728
Michael ThomasNONE1315221629
Rishard MatthewsTENJAX1217201630
Jarvis LandryMIALAC1015211630
Stefon DiggsMINPIT1014191530
Dez BryantDALDEN1014191534
Kenny GolladayDETNYG915201441
Demaryius ThomasDENDAL1014191432
Terrelle PryorWASLAR913161434
Emmanuel SandersDENDAL813191435
Pierre GarconSFSEA612161438
Jordan MatthewsBUFCAR913161434
DeAndre HopkinsHOUCIN1113161333
Randall CobbGBATL911181338
Adam ThielenMINPIT915161335
Kelvin BenjaminCARBUF713171339
Jamison CrowderWASLAR813181341
Mohamed SanuATLGB811151240
Taylor GabrielATLGB511151247
Tavon AustinLARWAS810131243
Cole BeasleyDALDEN812171241
Eli RogersPITMIN911151242
Eric DeckerTENJAX48211246
Sterling ShepardNYGDET69161244
DeSean JacksonTBCHI811161245
Marqise LeeJAXTEN810151141
Sammy WatkinsLARWAS710141145
Kenny BrittCLEBAL612151144
Marvin JonesDETNYG811141144
Tyreek HillKCPHI69151149
Tyrell WilliamsLACMIA510171152
Kenny StillsMIALAC611161147
Ted GinnNONE810131143
Brandon MarshallNYGDET69161145
Adam HumphriesTBCHI511161149
Brandon LaFellCINHOU59141053
Donte MoncriefINDARI48151056
Brian QuickWASLAR59171049
JJ NelsonARIIND59131054
Alshon JefferyPHIKC710131046
Mike WallaceBALCLE69131051
Marquise GoodwinSFSEA2614956
Devante ParkerMIALAC4713956
Chris HoganNENO6912956
Robert WoodsLARWAS8912953
Allen HurnsJAXTEN2813958
Travis BenjaminLACMIA5811957
John BrownARIIND4712955
Corey ColemanCLEBAL4712957
Nelson AgholorPHIKC3712859
Corey DavisTENJAX5712860
Jermaine KearseNYJOAK4811859
Tyler LockettSEASF5611855
Terrance WilliamsDALDEN5811862
Jeremy MaclinBALCLE2712860
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKNYJ2712862
Devin FunchessCARBUF4610863
Russell ShepardCARBUF479764
Robby AndersonNYJOAK3710766
Kendall WrightCHITB3611764
Seth RobertsOAKNYJ4611764
Torrey SmithPHIKC0610774
Jaron BrownARIIND469765
Tyler BoydCINHOU358668
Breshad PerrimanBALCLE358669
Danny AmendolaNENO239674
TJ JonesDETNYG259674
Phillip DorsettNENO258674
Albert WilsonKCPHI259673
Paul RichardsonSEASF269672
Kamar AikenINDARI249575
Keenan AllenLACMIA357577
Justin HardyATLGB239578
Taywan TaylorTENJAX246579
Aldrick RobinsonSFSEA235578
Chris ConleyKCPHI247581
Brandon ColemanNONE247583
Ardarius StewartNYJOAK236482
Jarius WrightMINPIT027489
Josh DoctsonWASLAR035487
Ricardo LouisCLEBAL125484
Brice ButlerDALDEN025495
Bennie FowlerDENDAL026495
Braxton MillerHOUCIN236485
Deonte ThompsonCHITB034395
Martavis BryantPITMIN025393
Roger LewisNYGDET035398
Zay JonesBUFCAR016396
Josh BellamyCHITB0053100
Andre HolmesBUFCAR0133101
Charone PeakeNYJOAK0242103
Trent TaylorSFSEA0232107
Ryan GrantWASLAR0042104
Laquon TreadwellMINPIT0000122

Tight End

Zach Ertz is projected with another solid performance. He and Delanie Walker have the strongest projections of all tight ends. Tyler Eifert has a high ceiling but low floor. Rob Gronkowski, whose projection is weighed down by a number of weaker games in 2016, has a significantly weak low-end projection; his median’s not much better. Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen also project with more pessimistic ranges of outcomes than you might expect

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Zach ErtzPHIKC1016201610
Delanie WalkerTENJAX1016181510
Jimmy GrahamSEASF813171213
Jason WittenDALDEN711171215
Zach MillerCHITB712171314
Rob GronkowskiNENO68161018
Travis KelceKCPHI811161313
Tyler EifertCINHOU5716920
Charles ClayBUFCAR711161216
Cameron BrateTBCHI812161215
Kyle RudolphMINPIT913151214
Jermaine GreshamARIIND4815923
Antonio GatesLACMIA5913921
Greg OlsenCARBUF5912919
Vance McDonaldPITMIN3612828
Jordan ReedWASLAR5711920
Coby FleenerNONE4810824
Eric EbronDETNYG2510629
Hunter HenryLACMIA3510727
Evan EngramNYGDET2410631
Jack DoyleINDARI3610728
Ryan GriffinHOUCIN3610725
Vernon DavisWASLAR2510631
Seth DeValveCLEBAL4810823
Martellus BennettGBATL579723
Will TyeNYJOAK249631
Dion SimsCHITB049535
Jared CookOAKNYJ458628
Julius ThomasMIALAC358627
Jesse JamesPITMIN248631
Trey BurtonPHIKC258532
Austin HooperATLGB247436
George KittleSFSEA047536
Josh HillNONE037439
Virgil GreenDENDAL347533
Dwayne AllenNENO346530
David NjokuCLEBAL024344
Marcedes LewisJAXTEN034344
AJ DerbyDENDAL024344
Tyler HigbeeLARWAS013251
Gerald EverettLARWAS023247
Nick BoyleBALCLE002154
Anthony FasanoMIALAC002156
Maxx WilliamsBALCLE000065

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Remember, the season is just starting so the projections will be less meaningful for rookies and players with recent changes in their situation.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

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  1. Andy Dalton and Alex Smith didn’t help me out with their uncharacteristic performances.  (back)
  2. I was hoping to get the results compiled and published Tuesday afternoon. Next week I’m going to try for this while also including Monday results.  (back)
  3. The model is compiling player averages from games since Week 2 of 2016.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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