Advice

Early GLSP Projections – High Expectations for Oakland’s Passing Game

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

With 2017 data available, the model improved upon its seasonal accuracy. The “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of five points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP recorded an average absolute difference of five and a half points, an improvement of a whole point over Week 1. The RB GLSP was off by an average absolute difference of five points, the WR GLSP by under six and the TE GLSP by four and a half. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.

A Couple of Reminders

GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have wide receivers similar to Doug Baldwin fared against defenses similar to the Packers? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer using a range of outcomes.

I pulled Week 2 data during Monday night’s game, so those results did not get included when running the model for Week 3. Also, the results for rookies and players that missed 2016 are based on Weeks 1 and 2 only. So take the projections for these players with a grain of salt.1

Finally, I haven’t stripped out players that are expected to be inactive or limited due to injury in Week 3.

Quarterback

The QB GLSP places Ben Roethlisberger with the week’s highest projection and strongest range of outcomes. Matt Ryan looks like the week’s second best option and Eli Manning projects with a surprisingly optimistic range of outcomes.

Conversely, Philip Rivers has a low floor to go with weak median and high projections. Andy Dalton could struggle against the Packers, and though the GLSP has liked Trevor Siemian the past two weeks, it doesn’t like his chances versus the Bills.

Marcus Mariota projects with a middle of the road range of outcomes against the Seahawks. Tyrod Taylor will be facing the Broncos but has a surprisingly high ceiling. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is expected to be average opposing the Titans. 

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAVG WK RK
Ben RoethlisbergerPITCHI1621262110
Matt RyanATLDET1421242011
Tom BradyNEHOU1418241913
Aaron RodgersGBCIN1218231813
Drew BreesNOCAR1517201813
Derek CarrOAKWAS1317221813
Jameis WinstonTBMIN1418221813
Cam NewtonCARNO1317221813
Carson PalmerARIDAL1416201813
Matthew StaffordDETATL1217221814
Eli ManningNYGPHI1418231813
Russell WilsonSEATEN1216201715
Tyrod TaylorBUFDEN1417201714
Marcus MariotaTENSEA1016201615
Kirk CousinsWASOAK1214201616
Joe FlaccoBALJAX1014211616
Andy DaltonCINGB1216191615
Trevor SiemianDENBUF1113171517
Philip RiversLACKC714201418
Alex SmithKCLAC813181319
Carson WentzPHINYG813181319
Blake BortlesJAXBAL813161319
Dak PrescottDALARI810161220
Josh McCownNYJMIA513161221
Brian HoyerSFLAR811141221
Jay CutlerMIANYJ812161121
Jared GoffLARSF712151122

Running Back

Todd Gurley will look to carry forward his momentum from Week 2 and projects with a nice range of outcomes against the 49ers. C.J. Anderson has a solid range of outcomes with both his floor and ceiling in the top 10. Isaiah Crowell’s struggles could continue against the Colts with a four-point low-end projection.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Le'Veon BellPITCHI1518242012
Devonta FreemanATLDET1319251914
Melvin GordonLACKC1217221914
LeSean McCoyBUFDEN1318231914
Kareem HuntKCLAC1518221914
Ezekiel ElliottDALARI1119231815
DeMarco MurrayTENSEA1116231716
Leonard FournetteJAXBAL1115191621
CJ AndersonDENBUF916221619
Todd GurleyLARSF915221521
Jordan HowardCHIPIT712221525
Carlos HydeSFLAR914201521
Tevin ColemanATLDET614201523
Mark IngramNOCAR913201423
Lamar MillerHOUNE814181325
Matt ForteNYJMIA812221326
Jeremy HillCINGB611191330
Latavius MurrayMINTB49211333
D'Onta ForemanHOUNE49211333
Theo RiddickDETATL710161233
Frank GoreINDCLE711171229
Darren SprolesPHINYG610181230
Jay AjayiMIANYJ712171129
Marshawn LynchOAKWAS510131132
Terrance WestBALJAX58171133
Bilal PowellNYJMIA612151129
Isaiah CrowellCLEIND49161133
Tarik CohenCHIPIT610151130
Jonathan StewartCARNO612141132
Giovani BernardCINGB710141031
LeGarrette BlountPHINYG510141037
Chris ThompsonWASOAK59121036
Ty MontgomeryGBCIN31014938
Jacquizz RodgersTBMIN4714941
Shane VereenNYGPHI3814941
Rob KelleyWASOAK3713939
Christian McCaffreyCARNO5710840
Mike GillisleeNEHOU2713844
Duke JohnsonCLEIND3615842
Charles SimsTBMIN3811841
Jerick McKinnonMINTB5713838
Chris IvoryJAXBAL468842
Ameer AbdullahDETATL3610746
Thomas RawlsSEATEN4611742
CJ ProsiseSEATEN478745
Dalvin CookMINTB4610647
Joe MixonCINGB368644
Derrick HenryTENSEA246650
Jalen RichardOAKWAS1411651
Zach ZennerDETATL2610650
Paul PerkinsNYGPHI248555
James WhiteNEHOU247554
Chris CarsonSEATEN347549
Charcandrick WestKCLAC269551
Robert TurbinINDCLE245552
Dion LewisNEHOU246552
Dwayne WashingtonDETATL037558
Wayne GallmanNYGPHI037557
Alvin KamaraNOCAR236456
Jamaal CharlesDENBUF136459
Rex BurkheadNEHOU137462
Deandre WashingtonOAKWAS046463
Damien WilliamsMIANYJ125459
Javorius AllenBALJAX013376
Mike TolbertBUFDEN024368
Marlon MackINDCLE035368
Matt BreidaSFLAR015373
Wendell SmallwoodPHINYG014374
Aaron RipkowskiGBCIN004374
Peyton BarberTBMIN025369
Jay ProschHOUNE004374
Kerwynn WilliamsARIDAL013277
Andre EllingtonARIDAL013276
Adrian PetersonNOCAR013277
Orleans DarkwaNYGPHI003277
Kenyan DrakeMIANYJ003274
Alfred MorrisDALARI013276
Elijah McGuireNYJMIA024270
Kyle JuszczykSFLAR003182
Jamaal WilliamsGBCIN002181
Chris JohnsonARIDAL001190
Tyler ErvinHOUNE001188
Branden OliverLACKC001186
Malcolm BrownLARSF000184
James ConnerPITCHI011188
Matt DayesCLEIND003178
Samaje PerineWASOAK003178

Wide Receiver

The WR GLSP likes A.J. Green to recover, placing him with one of the highest ceilings of the week. Golden Tate projects strongly against Atlanta, and Rishard Matthews once again looks like a solid play. The GLSP doesn’t know that Jordy Nelson could miss Week 3 but pegs Davante Adams for a strong game against the Bengals. J.J. Nelson projects with a strong range of outcomes, comparable to that of Larry Fitzgerald.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Antonio BrownPITCHI1420282119
Mike EvansTBMIN1120262024
Michael CrabtreeOAKWAS918261830
AJ GreenCINGB1116251829
Amari CooperOAKWAS1019241827
Golden TateDETATL1316231825
TY HiltonINDCLE1019231830
Doug BaldwinSEATEN1018221826
Davante AdamsGBCIN1418201821
Julio JonesATLDET917241733
Brandin CooksNEHOU1115231728
Jarvis LandryMIANYJ1018221727
Martavis BryantPITCHI1215221730
Jordy NelsonGBCIN1016221726
Michael ThomasNOCAR1316221727
Stefon DiggsMINTB1015191727
Rishard MatthewsTENSEA1013231633
Dez BryantDALARI1015201628
Pierre GarconSFLAR1012201532
Demaryius ThomasDENBUF1014201533
Larry FitzgeraldARIDAL1015201531
Terrelle PryorWASOAK1013191532
JJ NelsonARIDAL613201442
Jamison CrowderWASOAK913181435
Jordan MatthewsBUFDEN1114181431
Adam ThielenMINTB1015181433
Eli RogersPITCHI1113171434
DeAndre HopkinsHOUNE1114171431
Emmanuel SandersDENBUF814181334
Odell Beckham JrNYGPHI812181339
Brandon MarshallNYGPHI712171338
DeSean JacksonTBMIN611181246
Kelvin BenjaminCARNO713161241
Kenny GolladayDETATL813161240
Keenan AllenLACKC610161243
Cole BeasleyDALARI812161239
Mohamed SanuATLDET912151240
Taylor GabrielATLDET511151245
Marvin JonesDETATL912141239
Alshon JefferyPHINYG1013141238
Cooper KuppLARSF78171148
Tyrell WilliamsLACKC610171151
Kenny StillsMIANYJ611161147
Marqise LeeJAXBAL710161145
Sterling ShepardNYGPHI69161149
Devante ParkerMIANYJ612151145
Adam HumphriesTBMIN611151143
Brandon LaFellCINGB611141152
Ted GinnNOCAR89131147
Tavon AustinLARSF810131146
Randall CobbGBCIN911121142
Eric DeckerTENSEA49161053
Tyreek HillKCLAC48151051
Marquise GoodwinSFLAR47141055
Kenny BrittCLEIND69141051
Sammy WatkinsLARSF710141051
Jeremy MaclinBALJAX4716955
Travis BenjaminLACKC4814959
Allen HurnsJAXBAL2812959
Robert WoodsLARSF4912956
Tyler LockettSEATEN5911951
Mike WallaceBALJAX4911953
Devin FunchessCARNO2613863
Terrance WilliamsDALARI4811863
Dontrelle InmanLACKC4711861
Chris HoganNEHOU4810861
Nelson AgholorPHINYG3610861
Donte MoncriefINDCLE3712763
Jermaine KearseNYJMIA3711765
Torrey SmithPHINYG2810772
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKWAS3610765
Robby AndersonNYJMIA3710769
Seth RobertsOAKWAS2610768
Kendall WrightCHIPIT469763
Corey DavisTENSEA479766
Jaron BrownARIDAL489763
Corey ColemanCLEIND369761
Russell ShepardCARNO579762
Phillip DorsettNEHOU358771
Justin HardyATLDET2311676
Paul RichardsonSEATEN2410670
TJ JonesDETATL259674
Deonte ThompsonCHIPIT048684
Breshad PerrimanBALJAX247672
Geronimo AllisonGBCIN0210582
Kamar AikenINDCLE139575
Zay JonesBUFDEN038584
Albert WilsonKCLAC258578
Juju Smith-SchusterPITCHI048581
Josh BellamyCHIPIT048581
Chris ConleyKCLAC247581
Jarius WrightMINTB029485
Chad WilliamsARIDAL236483
Taywan TaylorTENSEA036486
Cody CoreCINGB046484
Ryan GrantWASOAK036490
Jaelen StrongHOUNE126485
Ricardo LouisCLEIND146483
Brice ButlerDALARI025495
Aldrick RobinsonSFLAR235482
Brandon ColemanNOCAR235485
Tommylee LewisNOCAR026396
Braxton MillerHOUNE225388
Sammie CoatesCLEIND035388
Roger LewisNYGPHI0253100
Josh DoctsonWASOAK034389
Ardarius StewartNYJMIA034391
Arrelious BennJAXBAL0023105
Charone PeakeNYJMIA0142104
Curtis SamuelCARNO0032104
Pharoh CooperLARSF123298
Andre HolmesBUFDEN0132103
Bennie FowlerDENBUF0132106
Trent TaylorSFLAR0221107
Quan BrayINDCLE0021117
Laquon TreadwellMINTB0011118

Tight End

Charles Clay projects with the highest ceiling of the week. Delanie Walker and Zach Ertz make for safe plays as well. Cameron Brate, like Zach Miller, could surprise with a high ceiling. Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph could disappoint as the two possess weaker ranges of outcomes than owners are accustomed to.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Zach ErtzPHINYG912161413
Charles ClayBUFDEN616191413
Jordan ReedWASOAK912151313
Delanie WalkerTENSEA1011171312
Antonio GatesLACKC812151313
Zach MillerCHIPIT711131217
Rob GronkowskiNEHOU910141116
Jimmy GrahamSEATEN711161116
Travis KelceKCLAC69141018
Greg OlsenCARNO710121016
Kyle RudolphMINTB611131018
Jason WittenDALARI79141018
Hunter HenryLACKC411151023
Martellus BennettGBCIN5813921
Jared CookOAKWAS4714922
Cameron BrateTBMIN5816922
Tyler EifertCINGB4910724
Coby FleenerNOCAR5710724
Vernon DavisWASOAK3611724
Austin HooperATLDET259632
Julius ThomasMIANYJ357630
Dwayne AllenNEHOU2410634
Will TyeNYJMIA369626
Eric EbronDETATL267535
Jesse JamesPITCHI248533
Jack DoyleINDCLE258535
Virgil GreenDENBUF157533
Clive WalfordOAKWAS247533
Josh HillNOCAR246436
Dion SimsCHIPIT235438
Marcedes LewisJAXBAL025341
AJ DerbyDENBUF024345
Tyler HigbeeLARSF002258
Nick BoyleBALJAX023251

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Remember, the season is just starting so the projections will be less meaningful for rookies and players with recent changes in their situation.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

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  1. The model is compiling player averages from games since Week 2 of 2016.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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