DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

DraftKings Plays for Week 3: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Designed to give you our best advice for taking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, the Play of the Week contest pits writer against writer, using FantasyLabs great tools – TrendsPlus/MinusVegas Lines, and more.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of daily fantasy and sports analytics tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free.

Check out the introduction for the nuts and bolts of how this works. The basic idea is that our analysts are going to do their best to recommend lightly-owned players that could smash their expected fantasy points in Week 3. The goal? To help you take down a GPP. To make sure we are well incentivized, the analyst with the best score each week wins a handsome cash prize.

Week 3 Review

Before we look at our Week 3 DraftKings plays of the week, let’s review our Week 2 recommendations.

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF WK 2 SCORE TOT SCORE
Jacob Rickrode 3.24 0.65 6.37 15.25 8.34 33.85 27.20
Ben Gretch 10.85 3.05 6.67 3.68 8.34 32.59 54.00
Anthony Amico 10.85 8.87 -4.62 10.03 1.10 26.23 46.75
Matt Wispe 2.44 8.87 1.00 4.92 8.34 25.57 43.84
Ben Bauer 3.24 8.87 -2.11 15.25 -0.65 24.59 23.34
Drew Heinl 3.24 13.27 8.89 -10.00 8.34 23.74 61.19
Brian Malone -4.07 1.42 2.47 4.92 11.49 16.24 4.14
Heith Krueger 2.44 8.91 0.47 -0.93 4.25 15.14 20.08
Ryan Bobbitt -6.18 13.27 6.67 -1.07 1.18 13.87 23.30
Josh ADHD 1.52 -2.03 2.47 -2.29 11.49 11.16 11.16
Tod Burros 0.73 -5.49 -7.63 10.03 11.49 9.14 19.73
RotoDoc -6.18 13.27 13.04 -10.00 -3.39 6.74 22.24
@CmonTumbleweed 3.24 1.42 8.89 -10.00 1.12 4.67 16.20
Eric Braun -5.13 11.04 -2.11 2.47 -3.39 2.88 18.44
Blair Andrews -5.13 13.27 -2.03 0.81 -4.10 2.83 5.01
Devin McIntyre 2.43 12.29 -8.33 -1.40 -3.39 1.60 8.82
Hasan Rahim -4.07 0.65 -2.03 10.03 -3.39 1.19 -2.46
Scott Smith 3.24 0.12 -0.47 -0.93 -1.40 0.56 0.56
John Lapinski -4.07 13.27 -8.33 0.81 -3.39 -1.70 11.86
Dave Caban -2.72 -6.02 0.36 -2.29 8.34 -2.33 -3.35
George Fitopoulos -6.18 8.87 -2.11 -0.93 -3.39 -3.75 -15.81
Colm Kelly -5.13 -2.03 -2.03 0.00 1.18 -8.01 -25.44
Joe Paeno 0.20 0.65 -6.30 -2.26 -0.65 -8.36 8.85
Pat James -6.82 0.65 -2.10 0.00 -3.39 -11.66 19.68
  • The table is sorted by Week 2 score. High scores are bolded.
  • Congratulations to Jacob Rickrode for winning Week 2. Travis Kelce was his top call.
  • Tough luck, RotoDoc. He had the best picks at both running back (Ty Montgomery) and wide receiver (Emmanuel Sanders) but finished just middle of the pack.
  • Ben Gretch and Anthony Amico hit on Tom Brady.
  • Through two weeks, the top cumulative scores belong to Drew Heinl, Ben Gretch, Anthony Amico, Matt Wispe, and Jacob Rickrode.

WEEK 3 DRAFTKINGS PLAYS OF THE WEEK

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF
@CmonTumbleweed Matthew Stafford Dalvin Cook Terrelle Pryor Zach Ertz New England Defense
Anthony Amico Kirk Cousins Isaiah Crowell Terrelle Pryor Jared Cook Cleveland Defense
Ben Bauer Carson Wentz Jonathan Stewart Martavis Bryant Jack Doyle Denver Defense
Ben Gretch Carson Wentz Christian McCaffrey Torrey Smith Zach Miller Pittsburgh Defense
Blair Andrews DeShone Kizer Lamar Miller Eric Decker Jack Doyle Carolina Defense
Brian Malone Matthew Stafford Devonta Freeman Eric Decker Zach Ertz Pittsburgh Defense
Colm Kelly Alex Smith Ty Montgomery Jermaine Kearse Travis Kelce Baltimore Defense
Dave Caban Ben Roethlisberger Derrick Henry Eric Decker Jared Cook Arizona Cardinals
Devin McIntyre Matthew Stafford Ameer Abdullah Terrelle Pryor Jared Cook Philadelphia Defense
Drew Heinl Cam Newton Ty Montgomery DeAndre Hopkins Zach Ertz Tennessee Defense
Eric Braun Andy Dalton Isaiah Crowell Stefon Diggs Rob Gronkowski NY Giants Defense
George Fitopoulos Aaron Rodgers Le’Veon Bell Eric Decker Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
Hasan Rahim Kirk Cousins Theo Riddick Alshon Jeffery Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
Heith Krueger Matt Ryan Darren Sproles Terrelle Pryor Zach Ertz Kansas City Defense
Jacob Rickrode Kirk Cousins Dalvin Cook Demaryius Thomas Jared Cook Tennessee Defense
Joe Paeno Kirk Cousins Christian McCaffrey Terrelle Pryor Jared Cook Carolina Defense
John Lapinski Kirk Cousins Isaiah Crowell Terrelle Pryor Zach Ertz New Orleans Defense
Josh ADHD Derek Carr Giovani Bernard Jordy Nelson Jack Doyle Minnesota Defense
Matt Wispe Cam Newton Tarik Cohen Rashard Higgins Zach Ertz Miami Defense
Mike Beers Jacoby Brissett Jonathan Stewart Emmanuel Sanders Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
Pat James Andy Dalton Christian McCaffrey Doug Baldwin Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
RotoDoc Matthew Stafford Christian McCaffrey Golden Tate Eric Ebron Kansas City Defense
Ryan Bobbitt Kirk Cousins Isaiah Crowell Tyrell Williams Jared Cook Pittsburgh Defense
Scott Smith Andy Dalton James White A.J. Green Martellus Bennett Pittsburgh Defense
Tod Burros Kirk Cousins  Giovani Bernard Tyreek Hill Martellus Bennett Kansas City Defense

Commentary

@CmonTumbleweedDalvin Cook is projected for low ownership, and according to FantasyLabs, he has a 92nd percentile ceiling and 85th percentile median projection. Tampa’s defense also gives up a high rush success rate, according to FantasyLabs’ Matchup tool.

Anthony AmicoKirk Cousins is only projected at two to four percent ownership by FantasyLabs as of this write-up, but he is the third ranked QB in the Tournament Model. His upcoming game against the Raiders has the highest total of the week, with Cousins at home.

Ben Bauer – If you’re looking to fade Zach Ertz’s very high projected usage, Jack Doyle has a similar projected Plus/Minus and a strong ceiling for this price range on FantasyLabs, all at a $1000 discount.

Ben Gretch – This is the third straight week I’ve picked Zach Miller, which is weird, but he continues to be undervalued both by salary and ownership projection. People just don’t want to play this bargain-priced TE with a 90 percent consistency rating and 63 percent upside rating, per FantasyLabs. He scored 12-plus PPR points in five of his 10 2016 games and has started 2017 averaging 7.5 targets.

Blair Andrews – The Colts have allowed two 300-yard passing games in a row, including one to Jared Goff. DeShone Kizer doesn’t need to reach that mark if he can make up for it with his legs, but I like his chances to get 300. He had 182 last week in a little over half the game. In a game with two bad defenses that has sneaky potential to go well over the current total of 41, I like Kizer and his 95 percent DraftKings Bargain Rating at a projected ownership of only 2-4 percent according to FantasyLabs.

Brian Malone – Chicago has the second-lowest implied total (18.3) on the slate, and they can’t rely on Jordan Howard. We could get a Mitch Trubisky sighting.

Colm Kelly – There is promise for big-time volume again for Jermaine Kearse. Over the last two weeks, he has 11 catches (on 15 targets) for 123 yards and two scores. I think his valuation of $4,600 could be a steal.

Dave CabanEric Decker has one of the highest Fantasy Labs projected Plus/Minus on the week and a very strong projection of 3.2 points per $1,000 spent. Based on FantasyLabs methodology, similar to PECOTA, he has a ceiling of nearly 23 points but an implied total of only eight. With Decker’s ability to score touchdowns and a solid target share he can easily outperform his Week 3 salary.

Devin McIntyreAmeer Abdullah has the fifth highest projected Plus/Minus. He’s flashed big-play ability in both the run and pass game, but offensive line penalties have nullified some of his production this year. Passing game upside remains, but his price is coming down.

Drew Heinl – My Tennessee Defense call has more to do with the struggling Seahawks offensive line and their projected ownership. FantasyLabs has Tennessee’s ownership projection between zero and one percent against a Seattle team that has consistently seen pressure in the backfield and now may be without Jimmy Graham.

Eric Braun – A road underdog by more than a touchdown, the Bengals should have quite a few pass attempts this Sunday. Andy Dalton has five pro trends as identified by the Models tool at FantasyLabs. For $5,100, Dalton is at a price where he could absolutely pay off in a GPP. I like the extra long week to work with the new offensive coordinator and that Dalton should be low-owned given his poor start to the season.

George Fitopoulos – Eric Decker only trails his teammate (Rishard Matthews) in FantasyLabs’ projected Plus/Minus, but it will be Decker who avoids the coverage of Richard Sherman. Decker has played out of the slot for 59 percent of the snaps and has seen 43 percent of the team’s red zone targets. With Corey Davis out and the Titans at home, we should see more targets funneled towards Decker.

Hasan Rahim – Kirk Cousins boasts one of the highest Plus/Minus projections for QBs for the week. Additionally, FantasyLabs forecasts that his ownership could hover between two and four percent. Given his high ceiling, relatively cheap price, and low ownership, Cousins should be in your lineup.

Heith Krueger – After seeing over 70 percent of the snaps last week and 12 total touches, Darren Sproles is woefully underpriced in a matchup against a reeling Giants team. Finding himself as the 14th highest rated RB by FantasyLabs’ player rating scores, with an expected ownership of 2-4 percent, and a rock-bottom bottom price of only $3,900 on Draftkings, Sproles could prove to be a fantastic play in GPPs this week.

Jacob Rickrode – Cousins is one of highest rated FantasyLabs QBs who is likely low owned in a high scoring matchup. Tennessee’s defense averages two sacks per week and now get the Seahawks poor offensive line.

Joe Paeno – If Christian McCaffrey is going to blow up, it will be against the Saints. He might get his first three-point DK bonus.

John Lapinski – The New Orleans Defense is going up against a banged up Panthers team and is dirt cheap. With the best Bargain Rating and fourth best Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs tournament model, I’ll gladly take the inexpensive, low-owned Saints and use the savings to pay up at other positions.

Josh ADHD – Giovani Bernard may be incredibly low-owned this week. Currently, he’s projected for less than 1 percent ownership by FantasyLabs. Bernard is an excellent punt option at RB ($3,800) if you’re paying up for Le’Veon Bell. He offers eight-reception upside if Cincinnati is playing from behind as expected.

Matt Wispe – Using the FantasyLabs Models tool, the New Orleans defense allows an average plus/minus of 5.8 to opposing QBs. Cam Newton has the fifth highest projection and the sixth highest price. Even without Greg Olsen, I’m expecting Newton to find the end zone through the air and on the ground.

Mike Beers – Jonathan Stewart is the lead ball carrier on a big home favorite in a game with one of the higher Vegas totals, but the expectation is the other Carolina RB will get higher ownership at a higher price.

Pat James – Andy Dalton has been pitiful through two weeks of the season, but the FantasyLabs Model points to a ton of upside. He has six pro trends in this week’s matchup with the Packers. He also has the highest Plus/Minus and his opponent, the Packers, have the highest Plus/Minus for opponents.

RotoDoc – FantasyLabs projects Golden Tate for the ninth-highest ceiling among WRs despite having the 12th-highest salary. Tate is projected under 10 percent ownership, and I love stacking him here with Stafford.

Ryan BobbittTyrell Williams will go overlooked with Keenan Allen healthy. With five pro trends from the FantasyLabs Model, Williams combines a nice ceiling with a strong Bargain Rating.

Scott Smith – James White finds himself in a nice spot. With Rob Gronkowski possibly out, Rex Burkhead nursing an injury, and the WR woes, White figures to be a huge beneficiary.

Tod Burros – Rex Burkhead right now is the least chalky of my plays. This week I mixed it up using the projected ownership of players on FantasyLabs models looking for lower owned players I had on my DFS short list.

Frequency Table

 

QB COUNT RB COUNT WR COUNT TE COUNT DEF COUNT
Kirk Cousins 7 Isaiah Crowell 4 Terrelle Pryor 6 Jack Doyle 7 Philadelphia Defense 5
Matthew Stafford 4 Christian McCaffrey 4 Eric Decker 4 Jared Cook 6 Pittsburgh Defense 4
Andy Dalton 3 Dalvin Cook 2 A.J. Green 1 Zach Ertz 6 Kansas City Defense 3
Cam Newton 2 Jonathan Stewart 2 Alshon Jeffery 1 Martellus Bennett 2 Carolina Defense 2
Carson Wentz 2 Ty Montgomery 2 DeAndre Hopkins 1 Rob Gronkowski 1 Tennessee Defense 2
Aaron Rodgers 1 Ameer Abdullah 1 Demaryius Thomas 1 Travis Kelce 1 Arizona Cardinals 1
Alex Smith 1 Darren Sproles 1 Doug Baldwin 1 Zach Miller 1 Baltimore Defense 1
Ben Roethlisberger 1 Derrick Henry 1 Emmanuel Sanders 1 Eric Ebron 1 Cleveland Defense 1
DeShone Kizer 1 Devonta Freeman 1 Jermaine Kearse 1 Denver Defense 1
Jacoby Brissett 1 James White 1 Martavis Bryant 1 Miami Defense 1
Matt Ryan 1 Lamar Miller 1 Rashard Higgins 1 New England Defense 1
Derek Carr 1 Le’Veon Bell 1 Stefon Diggs 1 New Orleans Defense 1
Giovani Bernard 2 Torrey Smith 1 NY Giants Defense 1
Tarik Cohen 1 Tyreek Hill 1 Minnesota Defense 1
Theo Riddick 1 Tyrell Williams 1
Jordy Nelson 1
Golden Tate 1

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

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