DraftKings Cash Game Plays for Week 2
Let’s take a look at DraftKings cash game picks for Week 2.
There aren’t as many obvious value plays and misprices. Quarterback, as usual, is all or nothing. Though I love paying down at quarterback as we did in Week 1, it may be tougher to do that in Week 2. I think we can get away with not jamming in the top running backs as they are either really expensive or in bad matchups. Wide receiver may be a good spot to spend at, which is opposite of our Week 1 approach. I usually never recommend more than one tight end, however, three popped when I did my research. Let’s take a look at cash game picks for Week 2.
Week 1 Review
I will be tracking my record on plays recommended according to the DraftKings cash line for that Week. In Week 1, the cash line fell at a score of about 125 (in double ups). This means a player need to hit 2.5x his salary to be considered as “attaining value.” I accumulated a W/L record of 5-5 in Week 1. Though I must say the losses were mostly chalky players (Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Kendall Wright, Doug Baldwin, and Carson Palmer), meaning they didn’t wreck your lineups because the a ton of other lineups rostered them as well. The plays attained greater than 2.5x value on Carson Wentz, LeSean McCoy, Todd Gurley, Pierre Garcon, and Zach Ertz.
DraftKings Week 2 Cash Game Plays
Tom Brady ($7,900)
Boxes checked: Team implied total, match up, favorite, projected sack rate.
Tom Brady was bitten by the variance bug against the Chiefs. Mike Gillislee scored three touchdowns from 2, 2, and 1 yard out. What better get right game to have than against the Saints’ porous secondary. Sam Bradford carved them up like he was Dan Marino in Week 1. Brady should be able to do the same. Vegas has the Patriots at a monster implied total of 31 points. The Saints couldn’t get any pressure on Sam Bradford, only sacking him once. I think Brady will have the same success staying upright and picking apart the Saints’ defense. We usually like to target home favorite quarterbacks, however, a road favorite with a 30+ point implied total against one of the worst defenses in the league qualifies as a great play. Additionally, the RotoViz game splits app shows that when Brady is a touchdown favorite in a game with a total of 50 or more, he sees a huge bump in production
Ty Montgomery ($5,800)
Boxes Checked: Team implied total, projected game script, market share of RB touches, market share of RB targets, snap rate.
Week 1 didn’t answer many questions, in fact, it probably left us with even more. However, the running back situation in Green Bay seems clear at the moment. If Week 1 is any indication of future tendencies, Montgomery will be carrying the RB load. He played on 90 percent of the Packers’ offensive snaps and saw 23 touches (19 carries, four targets), compared to just two carries for Jamaal Williams. I think we can put the running back by committee argument to bed for now. Montgomery gets the Falcons, who just allowed nearly 40 PPR fantasy points to Chicago’s RBs. The Packers use Montgomery in a similar fashion as the Bears used Tarik Cohen. The Packers are a 2.5 point underdog, which often proves beneficial for pass-catching running backs. They also have a 25.5 implied team total in a projected shootout. His price is what I really like, as I think he has as high a floor as anyone priced above him.
Kareem Hunt ($6,800)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, market share of carries, market share of RB targets, goal-line carries, pass-catching back, team implied total.
I know Hunt won’t approach the double yardage bonus and several touchdowns he tallied last week. That type of production isn’t sustainable. However, he showed everyone, including Andy Reid, that he can be effective. Hunt checks a lot of the boxes we are looking for in a cash game running back. The Chiefs are home favorites with a nice 26.5 implied point total. Hunt out-touched Charcandrick West 22 to 2 and touched the ball on 55 percent of snaps played. Hunt is game script independent. If the Chiefs maintain a lead, he should get a decent amount of carries to drain the clock, but can also snag a bunch of low aDot targets if the Eagles flip the script and have a lead in the second half. If the Chiefs approach their implied point total of nearly four touchdowns, Hunt should score at least one of those. Add in some catches and yardage and he should eclipse twenty DraftKings points fairly easy.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500)
Boxes Checked: Match up, target market share, depth of targets, market share of red zone targets, favorite, team implied total.
Larry Fitzgerald gets a boost in my opinion from the David Johnson injury. Sure, Kerwynn Williams may score some short touchdowns and Andre Ellington will catch some passes out of the backfield, but Fitzgerald should soak up a few of the low aDot targets that Johnson routinely gets. He already saw an absurd 13 targets last week, including a team high three in the red zone. He will continue to work the underneath routes which have a very high catch rate, a great attribute for cash lineups. These types of targets provide less volatility and more predictability. The Cardinals have one of the higher implied totals at 26.5. Fitzgerald’s 27 percent market share of targets in Week 1 should rise this week against a poor Colts secondary.
Keenan Allen ($5,800)
Boxes Checked: Market share of targets, home team, implied team total, red zone targets, depth of targets.
Keenan Allen impressed me against the difficult Broncos secondary. My expectations weren’t very high given the matchup, but he found the end zone and looked explosive. The Chargers have a nice advantage playing against the Dolphins. Not only are they a home favorite with a 25 point implied team total, but they get to face a team that hasn’t played a regular season game this year. I can see the Dolphins being a tad rusty not having seen live action in a few weeks. Allen converted on his lone target from the 5-yard line for a touchdown. It was reassuring to see Philip Rivers look for Allen despite having Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates available. Allen also accounted for about 30 percent of the Chargers total targets. With an easier matchup in store, look for Allen to get fed. I expect a better catch rate on a few more targets, allowing Allen to surpass his value at a reasonable price.
Cooper Kupp ($4,100)
Boxes Checked: Team implied total, home favorite, matchup, target market share, depth of target.
Cooper Kupp embodies the type of wide receiver that, as you can tell by now, I like to target in cash games. Kupp plays out of the slot, gets targeted closer to the line of scrimmage, and uses his shiftiness to add some yards after the catch. The Rams have a solid 24-point implied team total as a home favorite. Kupp saw the most targets of any Rams receiver in Week 1 and he also cashed in with a touchdown. His matchup with the Redskins looks very palatable. Wentz and the Eagles were able to move the ball well, especially from the slot. Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz both worked the middle of the field for short targets and both had huge fantasy performances. Sammy Watkins will see plenty of Josh Norman, leaving Kupp to get multiple check downs. At his depressed salary, A 6-60 or 5-70 stat line will suffice, however, Kupp has the potential to rack up more receptions and yards than that.
Coby Fleener ($3,100)
Boxes Checked: Team implied total, projected game script, red zone target market share, home team.
Coby Fleener entered the year as a positive regression candidate. Drew Brees targeted him often last year, but it seemed as though he just couldn’t pull the targets in, especially the red zone targets. In Week 1, Fleener had three targets in the red zone and six total. While the total targets weren’t great, he leads all tight ends in red zone targets to start the year. Brees spread the ball out amongst several pass-catchers; five players had 5 or more targets. The promising stat is the red zone targets. Two of the three red zone targets actually came from inside the 10. A matchup with the Patriots this week puts Fleener in a great spot game script wise. The Saints are home where they always perform well. The game is a projected shootout with an implied Vegas score of Patriots 31, Saints 24. I’m expecting Brees to throw a bunch, which should result in another week of multiple red zone targets for Fleener.
Zach Ertz ($5,300)
Boxes Checked: Market share of targets, projected game script, plus matchup.
Week 1 mega-chalk Zach Ertz gets a sizeable price bump, however, he still looks very appealing considering we need 16 fantasy points to meet value. The Eagles don’t have a massive implied total, which is currently sitting at about 22. However, the game script should be in Ertz’s favor as the Eagles are 5-point road dogs. Additionally, Eric Berry, who is usually tasked with locking down the opposing team’s tight end, will not be on the field. Ertz saw a 20 percent market share of targets which is a great percentage for a tight end. If you have salary cap room, I like him to have another productive week.
Charles Clay ($3,000)
Boxes Checked: Target market share, red zone target market share, projected game script, pricing.
Charles Clay made it on my Plays of the Week for Week 1 because of the limited amount of available pass-catchers the Bills have on their roster. After watching Tyrod Taylor feed Clay all day, I’m ready to bump him to a cash game play. Taylor targeted Clay on 32 percent of all targets against the Jets. Of those nine targets, three came inside the red zone. In addition to the touchdown Clay scored, he could have had a second but couldn’t hold on. The Panthers defense may have looked good against the 49ers, but they still allowed five receptions to George Kittle. With the amount of volume Clay should see and his cheap price, he makes for a solid cash game value. Lastly, Vegas has the game at an implied point projection of 17 for the Bills to go along with being a nine point dog. The game script should allow for some garbage receptions in the second half. Make sure he is good to go this week as he does appear on the Bills’ injury report as of this writing.
Trevor Siemian seems to be the best punt quarterback if you want to structure you lineup with a very cheap signal caller. I’m going to have a hard time ignoring the 31-point implied total for the Patriots, however. Melvin Gordon just missed making the write-up and I wouldn’t argue against swapping him for Hunt if you feel strongly about it. Tarik Cohen would be my choice for a punt RB if you need one cheaper than those listed. Adam Thielen and Marqise Lee were two wide receivers that were just edged out by Allen and Kupp.