Dollars Per Opportunity Week 1: Hyde Yo Kids
Putting together a DFS roster can be a daunting task as there are countless options to choose from every week. Everyone needs a way to parse through options and settle on their favorite plays, or as the pros like to say, “a core,” by using projected opportunity because we all know that opportunity is king in fantasy football. That’s what I’m here to do.
You can check out the season primer for a brief description on what to expect. I’ll be updating the Google doc (see link below) every Friday for the article and then again late Saturday to adjust for any injury news. Be sure to check it out before you finalize your lineups. Now, let’s get to the plays!Week 1 $/Opp Cheat Sheet
When it comes to this position, the opportunity doesn’t vary a ton, but it’s important to capitalize on matchups and salary inefficiencies. For example, while you’ll see a lot of cheaper quarterbacks at the top of the value list you might want to reconsider for two reasons – 1) they are priced cheap for a reason and 2) they don’t have a great matchup.
That being said, I really like Carson Palmer ($6,000 DK; $7,300 FD) this week because his opportunity score falls in the top five while his salary is outside the top 10. He also gets a nice matchup indoors against a Lions defense that didn’t do well vs. the pass last season.
Another great play (slightly more on the contrarian side) is Philip Rivers ($5,800 DK; $7,100 FD) who faces off against the Broncos on Monday night. It’s very likely that the matchup vs. Denver will scare off many DFS players, but Rivers comes in with a great opportunity score (30.4) and reasonable salary.
The top value for DraftKings is Lamar Miller ($5,100 DK; $7,300 FD) who is presumably healthy and is in a nice spot as the Texans are home favorites vs. Jacksonville. It also doesn’t hurt that both Alfred Blue and D’onta Foreman are banged up going into Week 1.
Another great value is Carlos Hyde ($4,600 DK; $6,800 FD), who on DraftKings is priced like a FLEX player despite being projected for RB1 volume. It should be noted his price on FanDuel isn’t as inefficient so make sure you take advantage.
On FanDuel, I’m trying to fit Le’Veon Bell ($9,800 DK; 9,300 FD) or David Johnson ($9,400 DK; $9,400 FD) into my lineups as much as possible — they are actually the third and sixth-best values on the board — but if you want a cheaper option you can’t go wrong with Todd Gurley ($7,300 DK; $7,300 FD). He has the third-highest opportunity score on FanDuel (25.4) and should have decent game script vs. the Colts with Scott Tolzien under center.
The chalk value play on DraftKings will be easy — Kendall Wright ($3,200 DK; $5,200 FD) is almost min-priced and projected as a borderline WR3 in regards to opportunity.
I’ll be getting plenty of exposure to two wide receivers on both sites this week — Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900 DK; $6,400 FD) and Stefon Diggs ($6,000 DK; $6,600 FD). Both Diggs and Fitzgerald could be in a shootouts this week and are projected for top-10 opportunity scores. Another point for Fitz is that he’s been a better player in the first half over the last three seasons.
If you’re looking for a solid GPP play on both sites, look no further than Ted Ginn Jr. ($4,200 DK; $5,600 FD). With the departure of Brandin Cooks and suspension of Willie Snead, Ginn could see a nice uptick in routes and is priced quite nicely on both sites.
Zach Ertz ($3,500 DK; $5,900 FD) will be the chalk — especially on DraftKings — and I usually hate playing the chalk at this position. That said, the departure of Jordan Matthews definitely opens up some new opportunity in the middle of the field.
Coby Fleener ($2,900 DK; $5,100 FD) could be on a lot of people’s shit lists after a very frustrating 2016 season. However, as I outlined with Ginn above, there’s no Cooks or Snead so the targets need to go somewhere, and Fleener is projected for TE1 opportunity.
Martellus Bennett ($4,100 DK; $5,700 FD) seems only slightly underpriced on FanDuel, but he’s still cheap enough where I want to have some exposure in GPPs. This is more of a gut call, but last season the Seahawks struggled with tight ends and that game could easily turn into a shootout. Aaron Rodgers could decide to feed his new toy, leading to a patented1 three-touchdown game from Bennett.
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