2017 Projections: Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens

In this series I will be using an internal version of the Projection Machine, to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds off of team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output for the coming season. I will be using staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RovoViz team. All 2017 Baltimore Ravens projections are based on PPR scoring. I followed alphabetical order while writing this series but skipped two teams; Baltimore and Indianapolis. Given the uncertainty surrounding the health of both team’s quarterbacks, I wanted to wait until I had as much information as possible. It looks like Joe Flacco will be ready to go in Week 1 or miss minimal time. This is assumed within the outlined projections. The Ravens won eight games in 2016. Both Pythagorean win percentage and Vegas expect it to pick up one more in the coming season. Baltimore’s scoring margin per play has varied largely in the last four years; the team’s record has as well. This makes it a bit of a guessing game as to what we can expect for 2017. For this reason, I used a scoring margin of -0.70 which is a little higher than league average. The Ravens led the league in pass attempts last season and will continue to air it out while operating at a lightning-fast pace. Though the team’s pass and pace tendencies could match 2016 levels, I scaled them back to add a level of conservatism to our projection. Given these assumptions, the Projection Machine forecasts 633 passing and 400 rushing attempts.
Scoring Margin Pass Tendency Pace Tendency
League 75th percentile 1.00 0.02 0.85
League 50th percentile -1.25 -0.01 -0.85
League 25th percentile -3.75 -0.04 -2.70
Ravens 2015 -4.00 0.05 4.00
Ravens 2016 0.00 0.09 3.25
Ravens 2017 (Projection) -0.70 0.05 2.50

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive