Draft Strategy

It’s A Wrap – The Players I Am Most Exposed To And Why

14 Team Mocker explains why he is overexposed to a basket of players, updated for the end of the MFL10 season. Part one of this article can be found by clicking here. Now that MFL10s are closed, and the last of my 45 rosters is complete, these are the players to whom I have the most exposure. Some are holdovers, while some are newcomers since my first update in May. ROUND 1: WAS A.J. GREEN, NOW SAME (ADP 1.07, 15.6% EXPOSURE) If the player is the same as it was in May, I will repeat what I said then in italics, then comment if my stance has changed: I don’t have an issue with any of the top 14 players in current ADP going in the first round, and I only have one more share of A.J. Green than I do of Julio Jones or Odell Beckham, which is largely just the result of where I’m drafting. I still only have one more share of Green than Jones or Beckham (or LeSean McCoy) and have the same number of shares of Mike Evans. If forced to choose between the two I prefer Green, as I think we saw Evans’ ceiling last season and it’s not particularly close to Green’s. Limiting exposure in the very top rounds is important, since a costly asset that busts cripples a portfolio. I stress not being overconfident in your predictions. Fantasy football is inherently very unpredictable. My list of players I am comfortable taking in the first round is down to 11 from 14, with Brandin Cooks now in the group, in place of Ezekiel ElliottDevonta Freeman, and especially T.Y. Hilton and Melvin Gordon, who scare the piss out of me. ROUND 2: WAS LAMAR MILLER, NOW KEENAN ALLEN OR ALLEN ROBINSON (ADP 3.05 & 3.12, 24.4% EXPOSURE) In the second round, I have seven shares of Jordan Howard and six of Todd Gurley, but I have the most shares of any player in Lamar Miller, and 11 each of Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson, who all have ADPs in the third round. Allen now has a slightly higher ADP than Miller, so they’re swapping from where they were in May. My argument last year for Allen leading the league in targets is the same as this season. His ACL tear was Week 1, making his surgery much earlier and his recovery time much longer than a lot of players who suffer serious injury. Of course, I was way overexposed to Jamaal Charles last year, so maybe I should be less hesitant to bank on the success of ACL recoveries. Robinson was the WR6 the season before last, at 22 years old, in the same exact situation he is now. His ADP of WR19 is further from that than the nine spots it is away from where he finished last year, in a near worst-case scenario season. ROUND 3: WAS SAMMY WATKINS OR KEENAN ALLEN, NOW LAMAR MILLER (ADP 3.06, 28.9% EXPOSURE)

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