PGA DFS Picks and Projections: Northern Trust Open 2017

The FedEx Cup playoffs begin this week at the Northern Trust Open. Glen Oaks Club, a par 70 layout that plays between 7300 and 7400 yards, will host its first PGA event. I’m back with another edition of my PGA DFS machine learning model. Also check out the weekly PGA podcast with Matt Dulcan. We delve into strategy and highlight some interesting players on the DraftKings slate. Let’s jump into the model.

Northern Trust Open Projections

These projections are generated using a combination of statistical simulation and machine learning algorithms. More than 40 factors go into the model, including: long-term normalized round score, driving accuracy, driving distance, proximity of approach shots, temperature and wind, to name a few. Three columns: DK.Pts, MadeCut% and Top10%, are generated using three separate algorithms which all draw from the same underlying data. MadeCut% tends to be the most reliable. Explanation of each column:
  • DK.Pts is the average number of DraftKings points that the player will score. [Editor’s note: please note these are DraftKings projected points. We hope to add FanDuel projected points in the near future.]
  • MadeCut% is the percentage/probability of the golfer making the cut.
  • Top10% is the percentage/probability of the golfer finishing in the top 10.
  • DK.Sal is the golfer’s DraftKings salary.
  • DK.Value is the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

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By John Gambill | @GamblinJohnny | Archive

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