NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections for Bristol

This weekend NASCAR heads to Bristol for the Bristol night race. One of the most action-packed tracks, Bristol is a half-mile concrete track that’s steeply banked. As a short bullring, Bristol presents many opportunities for beating and banging, and with three races to go before NASCAR’s playoffs, it could be a wild race! As usual, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks and model projections along with ownership projections for Bristol.

The NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer will updated shortly with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find a range of outcomes for each driver, and the NASCAR Sim Scores App has all your favorite driver comps to get a range of outcomes for each driver.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the steep track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Bristol.

NASCAR DFS Model Projections – Bristol

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than 27th.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Erik Jones110.1326.9325.0443.99870025.0%
Kyle Larson210.5676.0434.4261.111050047.0%
Kasey Kahne313.6314.6111.4729.1374009.1%
Chase Elliott49.6431.3827.1950.17920019.8%
Matt Kenseth510.6255.6326.1454.73940025.5%
Martin Truex Jr613.2539.4731.1348.941070019.0%
Denny Hamlin712.2725.4924.4445.04960010.9%
Joey Logano810.1829.6316.9447.52900010.1%
Clint Bowyer913.033.149.4632.46880013.2%
Ryan Blaney1016.957.7214.7629.41890014.4%
Jamie McMurray1115.54.210.530.3850013.4%
Daniel Suarez1215.341.54.4227.9181008.3%
Ryan Newman1314.823.845.1530.9720014.9%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1413.86.227.3235.62770021.6%
Chris Buescher1517.881.245.4326.27600011.4%
Austin Dillon1614.390.563.8733.31750011.0%
Brad Keselowski1713.4537.7827.3657.221010014.0%
Kyle Busch1814.2943.3423.7156.11080062.6%
David Ragan1921.530.542.1621.16550010.2%
Trevor Bayne2014.70.43.5136.46690021.6%
Jimmie Johnson2110.5526.8120.5960.89930022.4%
Ty Dillon2216.486.254.0336.6368008.6%
AJ Allmendinger2317.371.324.2534.72620014.1%
Danica Patrick2418.750.642.932.1165007.7%
Kurt Busch2518.1112.39.6140.66840011.4%
Michael McDowell2620.350.821.8330.4359005.5%
Paul Menard2718.180.812.7736.23670010.6%
Aric Almirola2818.131.083.3937.7163009.0%
Kevin Harvick2913.7832.6121.6464.4980048.7%
JJ Yeley3025.510.680.6523.4752002.6%
Dale Earnhardt Jr3119.441.265.0738.9780009.6%
Cole Whitt3225.720.510.725.0454002.0%
Landon Cassill3324.311.771.0929.3757009.5%
Matt DiBenedetto3421.760.651.7835.53580013.3%
Corey Lajoie3524.390.611.2630.9946009.0%
BJ McLeod3626.360.431.1427.9649002.3%
Gray Gaulding3726.70.480.582847001.6%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3826.710.480.4828.9448000.8%
Reed Sorenson3926.930.410.4829.4853001.2%
Joey Gase4027.350.431.3630.0850001.8%

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks.

NASCAR DFS Picks — Cash Games

Kyle Larson ($10,500) — There were three drivers I identified right off the bat this weekend in NASCAR DFS, and all three ended up in cash game playable positions. Kyle Larson leads it off by qualifying second. I expect him to dominate a chunk of this race. Bristol is one of his best tracks, and he’s led an average of 13.5 percent of the laps over the last three Bristol races. He should get by Erik Jones early on.

Kyle Busch ($10,800) — The next was Kyle Busch, who actually has led an average of 24 percent of the laps over the past three Bristol races. The younger Busch brother qualified 18th after a bobble in qualifying, so he’ll have plenty of opportunity to score points in all three facets of NASCAR DFS — place differential, finishing position, and dominator points. Busch was second fastest over 10 consecutive laps in final practice.

Kevin Harvick ($9800) — Harvick was the third driver I was eyeballing going into the weekend, and I talked about each of these three drivers on the FNTSY Sports Network prior to qualifying even happening. Harvick solidifies the trio of solid plays with a 29th place qualifying effort, giving him massive place differential potential. Harvick has led an average of 10.3 percent of the laps over the past three Bristol races, and also has the most fastest laps in that time frame.

NASCAR DFS Picks — GPPs

Chase Elliott ($9200) — The RotoViz NASCAR Sim Scores App gives Elliot a better median and upside projection for both lead laps and finishing position than Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, and Erik Jones. Warning: It’s a high risk play, but anything can happen at Bristol and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Elliott pick up his first career win and lock his spot into the playoffs.

Jimmie Johnson. ($9100) Johnson’s team wrapped up final practice early, happy with the changes they made and happy with the car they have. With so much ownership going toward the three cash game plays listed above, plus potentially Erik Jones, Matt Kenseth, and Chase Elliott as dominators, plus Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. as place differential plays,  Johnson could get overlooked.

Trevor Bayne ($6900) — I think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Chris Buescher will be popular plays in the $6000-7500 range given Stenhouse’s track history and Buescher’s practice times. However, Bayne was very good in final practice and also has a decent track history, with a better driver rating than teammate Stenhouse over the past three Bristol races and an average finish of 9.3 compared to Stenhouse’s 9.0.

NASCAR DFS Fades

Kasey Kahne ($7400) — The guy has pretty much no chance to finish in the winning lineup given the quality of Bristol racers around him. He’s shown speed, but it won’t be enough because place differential will factor into this as well, and he pretty much can only go down. His upside projection from the Sim Scores App is a 7th-place finish, which would give him -4 points in the place differential category to go with 37 finishing position points. Nowhere near good enough.

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive