Draft Strategy

Exploiting Recency Bias: Matt Forte Is Still One Of The Best Ever

Matt Forte is one of the greatest running backs of all-time, and his price in fantasy football is nonsense.  The Jets played their third preseason game last weekend, and their starting running was Matt Forte. For some reason, he is getting drafted several rounds after Bilal Powell, and several other RBs who don’t start, with an ADP of RB48.
Matt Forte 2017 ADPRB48
2016 RB48100.5
2012 - 2016 RB48 Avg99.5
RotoViz Projection155.6
Sim Scores110.4 - 204.8
Considering Forte’s career and current employment, this represents a unique and bizarre situation where fantasy drafters are highly convinced they can predict something about the future that we have no indication is likely.


In each of the last two seasons, I’ve written about how Forte represents an historical statistical anomaly. Here’s the chart from above in the article two years ago, when Forte was the sixth RB being drafted.
2014 RB6272.6
2010-2014 ADP RB6211.7
Rotoviz Writers' Composite Projection268.5
RB Sim Score App Range198.4 - 364.8
He had a disappointing season of only 214 points, but because it was an exceptionally down year for RB production, he was the overall RB7, missing ADP by just one spot. Here’s the chart above from last year’s article:
2015 RB14193.4
2011-2015 ADP RB14177
Rotoviz Writers' Composite Projection233.3
RB Sim Score App Range168.0 - 228.8
He got injured Week 13, after playing fewer and fewer snaps as the season went on, likely due to a tremendous amount of work the first seven weeks of the season. Finishing as the overall RB21 with 185 points, it was the least productive season of Forte’s career, and the first time he failed to record 40 receptions. It was still only seven spots below his ADP last year, and more than two dozen spots ahead of his ADP this year.

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive