Draft Strategy

Exploiting Recency Bias: Allen Robinson Got Cheap

Allen Robinson has become dramatically undervalued as fantasy draft season apexes.  This article is the shining achievement of my three-season tenure at RotoViz. Two years ago, my 12th article published on the site was about Brandon Marshall. He was coming off an injury-shortened season as WR34, on a new team with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback, and was 31-years old. Drafted as the WR25, he would finish the season as the WR3. Last year, this piece was about T.Y. Hilton. He was coming off a year as the WR23, badly underperforming when Andrew Luck missed several games, and thought to be facing stiff competition from thought-to-be rising star Donte Moncrief. Drafted as the WR15, he would finish the season as the WR5. This year, there wasn’t someone who stood out to me like these players, and I wasn’t going to write this piece. No, I was going to let this year go by and not force this piece about someone who didn’t quite fit; then I had my first two ESPN drafts at the beginning of this week, and saw Allen Robinson has an ADP of WR26. As My Fantasy League’s MFL10s wind down, he has fallen to WR19 over the last week.
2016 WR19 - WR26198.2 - 213.5
2012 - 2016 Avg WR19219.8
2012 - 2016 Avg WR26197.9
RotoViz Projection221.4
Sim Scores185.6 - 265.6
My exposure has skyrocketed to 24.4 percent, with three of 11 shares acquired in the nine drafts that are still going on. The only WRs I have higher exposure to are the far cheaper Wallace and Kenny Stills. Robinson is in my second tier of WRs, which is three names long, and spans my WR10 to WR12. This is why. 

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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