Exploiting Recency Bias: Allen Robinson Got Cheap
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Allen Robinson has become dramatically undervalued as fantasy draft season apexes. This article is the shining achievement of my three-season tenure at RotoViz. Two years ago, my 12th article published on the site was about Brandon Marshall. He was coming off an injury-shortened season as WR34, on a new team with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback, and was 31-years old. Drafted as the WR25, he would finish the season as the WR3. Last year, this piece was about T.Y. Hilton. He was coming off a year as the WR23, badly underperforming when Andrew Luck missed several games, and thought to be facing stiff competition from thought-to-be rising star Donte Moncrief. Drafted as the WR15, he would finish the season as the WR5. This year, there wasn’t someone who stood out to me like these players, and I wasn’t going to write this piece.
My exposure has skyrocketed to 24.4 percent, with three of 11 shares acquired in the nine drafts that are still going on. The only WRs I have higher exposure to are the far cheaper Wallace and Kenny Stills.
Robinson is in my second tier of WRs, which is three names long, and spans my WR10 to WR12.
This is why.
- I love Stefon Diggs, but he has never shown the production for an entire season that would make him fit this criteria. He’s also never been more expensive.
- I believe in Keenan Allen, and don’t believe in injury curses, but he’s never finished higher than WR18 in a season, and won’t fall much past that in any draft.
- I had considered Jeremy Maclin, when he was still a Chief, but he got released, then went to a team with much better WRs, and his price somehow went up.
- Alshon Jeffery will always have my heart, but it’s been four years since he finished in the top-40, Carson Wentz is probably terrible, and he’s really not that cheap.
- Mike Wallace is going to obliterate his ADP, but his ceiling isn’t anywhere near the top five.
|2016 WR19 - WR26||198.2 - 213.5|
|2012 - 2016 Avg WR19||219.8|
|2012 - 2016 Avg WR26||197.9|
|Sim Scores||185.6 - 265.6|