Draft Strategy

DeShone Kizer Will Start And The ADPs Of Cleveland Skill Players Say Don’t Ignore Him

DeShone Kizer will start sooner than later, and gets to throw the ball to a group of players fantasy drafters love.   On March 10th, the Cleveland Browns acquired Brock Osweiler, which was quite clearly a move to take his salary off of Houston’s hands. The Texans gave Osweiler, their 2017 6th round pick, and their 2018 2nd round pick, for just Cleveland’s 2017 4th. On April 25th, we told the Browns that they got it right with Cody Kessler in the 2016 draft, and their quarterback this season was in place. On April 29th, they drafted DeShone Kizer, QB from Notre Dame, 52nd overall in the second round. With his draft capital taken into consideration, we gave Kizer the second highest chance for NFL success, besting the dramatically more expensive Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson. On Thursday night, in the Browns first preseason game, Kizer did this: RotoViz emeritus Rich Hribar points out that over the last five seasons, 12 of the 18 QBs selected in the first two rounds started at least ten games their rookie season. Two of the six that didn’t were backing up Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. He specifically predicted that Kizer will start multiple games. Every year since 2011 there have been two rookie QBs in the top-24, with the exception of 2013, when there were two in the top-26, and three in top-28. This includes Cam Newton‘s QB4, Robert Griffin‘s QB5Andrew Luck‘s QB8, and Dak Prescott‘s QB6 campaigns.1 If you raise it out to top-15 instead of top ten you also capture Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton. In Hue Jackson’s two season in Cincinnati, Dalton was QB19, and then QB18 with three missed games, making him QB9 in points per game. The Browns somehow managed to go through five QBs last season, who combined for 217 fantasy points, which would have been QB24 if it was one person. Osweiler started their first preseason game, but “Jackson said on Thursday that if Osweiler plays poorly in this week’s matchup, someone else will get a chance.”

WHAT CAN WE REALLY EXPECT
  1. Using 25 yard per point, four point TD, negative two INT scoring.  (back)

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