Draft Strategy

T.Y. Hilton Is Overpriced

T.Y. Hilton looks overpriced right now, especially with questions surrounding Andrew Luck‘s shoulder. There are three psychological concepts that a lot of the fantasy football strategy I write about and use falls under:
  1. Exploiting Recency Bias
  2. Chasing The Dragon
  3. The Asch Experiment
At their core, all three of these concepts are about the tendency for individual humans to subconsciously conform to what larger groups of humans are doing. In fantasy football, this is a terrible problem that points to the lack of understanding the game, and explains why so many people who play it every year are not only unsuccessful, but can’t seem to remember or figure out why they’re unsuccessful. This article will focus on the concept of chasing the dragon, and how it relates to T.Y. Hilton. These pieces the last two years, about avoiding Rob GronkowskiAndrew Luck, and Keenan Allen in 2015, and Cam Newton and DeAndre Hopkins (but not so much Devonta Freeman) in 2016, proved very shrewd. If we dwell on our mistakes, we’ll make illogical choices in the future. Accept that you cannot predict the future, and be comfortable playing for the most likely outcome every time, regardless of whether or not that outcome actually happens. If you let hindsight tell you that you made the wrong decision, even though you played for the most likely outcome, you will start to do illogical, overly exuberant things. In psychology, these phenomena are called hindsight bias and outcome bias. Remember those stupid commercials a few years ago about Fear of Missing Out?1 FOMO is very real in fantasy football and leads people to badly overpay for last season, abandoning any rational approach to value in hopes that they’re catching lighting in a bottle that either has already struck or never will. These articles aren’t so much about the specific players, but more of a general way to think about recency bias, identify it when you see it, and weigh whether or not you are playing for the most likely outcome. You may disagree on the individual names, but what is more important is weighing the concepts and applying them broadly to team construction. This season, people are chasing that dragon again, for fear of missing out on the player they didn’t own last season, when he was an underpriced, fantasy juggernaut.


Hilton was the main Exploiting Recency Bias claim stake last season, after Brandon Marshall was the season before. Hilton made me look very smart, in the same way Marshall did; now, he looks to avoid the same fate Marshall suffered following his 2015 season being the golden boy of anti-conformity. An easy way to gauge Hilton’s cost rise from last year is using the arguments in that article but for an ADP of WR8 instead of WR15.
  1. Yes, they weren’t that stupid if we still remember them so well, that’s not the point, Madison Avenue.  (back)

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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  1. Interesting...I have found myself drafting TY in many, many mock drafts this year. This highlights an interesting dilemma, however. If TY is overvalued, who in the hell can we draft in the 2nd and to a lesser degree, 3rd rounds, especially those of us who are Zero RB drafters?

    Obviously, most of us agree with the consensus top 5 WRs or so, and have no problem drafting them in the first or very early second. And I have seen numerous articles on Rotoviz touting the Larry Fitzgeralds and Stefon Diggses of the 4th/5th round. But between those areas of snake drafts? Very difficult to navigate this year.

    Evans and Michael Thomas are overvalued. Amari Cooper and Doug Baldwin arguably present very little value over aforementioned 4th and 5th round options. Dez Bryant? I don't recall seeing too many articles on him, but I guess he's an option. Gronk? After these guys, we fall into the big tier of the Deandre Hopkinses, the Allen Robinsons, the Alshon Jefferies, and the Jarvis Landries. Lots of question marks there also.

    I guess we could pivot to RB, but most of those second round guys look like terrible picks to me. I'm not spending a 2nd on Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Jordan Howard, or Jay Ajayi. For my money, TY is easily the safest pick (clear #1 WR, good QB, team that will throw a ton) after the big 4-5 WRs come off the board, although I am still not thinking of Luck's injury as something to be terribly concerned about.

    Anyone else having lots of trouble liking any pick in the 2nd/3rd rounds of snake drafts this year?

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