2017 Projections: Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans

In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 Tennessee Titans projections are based on PPR scoring. The Titans won nine games in 2016. Pythagorean win percentage and Vegas expect a similar outcome in the coming season. As a result, the team is projected with a consistent scoring margin and is expected to continue favoring the run while operating at a slow pace. Given these assumptions, the Projection Machine forecasts 508 passing and 470 rushing attempts.
Scoring Margin Pass Tendency Pace Tendency
League 75th percentile 1.00 0.02 0.85
League 50th percentile -1.25 -0.01 -0.85
League 25th percentile -3.75 -0.04 -2.70
Titans 2015 -6.15 0.01 -2.15
Titans 2016 -0.80 -0.05 -1.00
Titans 2017 (Projection) -0.80 -0.04 -1.00

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive