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2017 Preview: A Search for Relevancy in San Francisco

In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 San Francisco 49ers projections are based on PPR scoring. The 49ers won two games in 2016 but Pythagorean win percentage and Vegas forecast the team with four and a half wins in the coming season. Kyle Shannahan was named San Francisco’s head coach in February and is expected to increase the team’s pace and passing tendencies. With a minor improvement in scoring margin, the Projection Machine forecasts 541 passing and 430 rushing attempts.
Scoring Margin Pass Tendency Pace Tendency
League 75th percentile 1.00 0.02 0.85
League 50th percentile -1.25 -0.01 -0.85
League 25th percentile -3.75 -0.04 -2.70
49ers 2015 -7.25 -0.01 -2.25
49ers 2016 -5.75 -0.06 -1.00
49ers 2017 (Projection) -4.90 -0.02 0.25

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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