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2017 Projections: Antonio Brown and the Pittsburgh Steelers

In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers projections are based on PPR scoring. The Steelers won 11 games in 2016 and are expected to win 10 in the coming season. The RotoViz staff expects the team to produce a similar scoring margin and operate with consistent tendencies in 2017. Given these assumptions, the Projection Machine forecasts 613 passing and 413 rushing attempts.
Scoring Margin Pass Tendency Pace Tendency
League 75th percentile 1.00 0.02 0.85
League 50th percentile -1.25 -0.01 -0.85
League 25th percentile -3.75 -0.04 -2.70
Steelers 2015 0.75 0.05 -1.25
Steelers 2016 0.60 0.03 -0.25
Steelers 2017 (Projection) 0.75 0.03 -0.25

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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