2017 Preview: Drafters Are Doing the Philly Backfield Wrong
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In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 Philadelphia Eagles projections are based on PPR scoring. The Eagles won seven games in 2016 and are expected to win eight or nine in 2017. As a result, the staff anticipates an improvement in scoring margin. This will allow the team to lower its pace and continue to run a balanced attack. Based on these assumptions, the Projection Machine forecasts 582 passes and 434 rushes.
|Scoring Margin||Pass Tendency||Pace Tendency|
|League 75th percentile||1.00||0.02||0.85|
|League 50th percentile||-1.25||-0.01||-0.85|
|League 25th percentile||-3.75||-0.04||-2.70|
|Eagles 2017 (Projection)||-1.00||0.01||1.50|