2017 Preview: Targets and Fades in Jacksonville
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In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars projections are based on PPR scoring. Pythagorean win percentage and Vegas forecast the Jaguars for six and a half wins in 2017. This will be an improvement from their 2016 total of three. After accounting for the impact of this optimism on game flow, scoring margin, and offensive tendencies, I arrived at the following assumptions.
Even with an improved scoring margin, the Jaguars will spend significant time trailing. As a result, they’ll need to rely on the pass and operate at a fast pace. Given these inputs, the Projection Machine forecasts 585 passing and 418 rushing attempts.
|Scoring Margin||Pass Tendency||Pace Tendency|
|League 75th percentile||1.00||0.02||0.85|
|League 50th percentile||-1.25||-0.01||-0.85|
|League 25th percentile||-3.75||-0.04||-2.70|
|Jaguars 2017 (Projection)||-3.25||0.01||1.34|