2017 Projections: Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In this series, I use an internal version of the Projection Machine to explore likely outcomes for offensive players on all 32 NFL teams. The Projection Machine employs a top-down approach that builds on team-wide assumptions to develop expectations of offensive output. I will use staff averages to help guide the inputs underlying the projections. Check out this article for further information on the process used by the RotoViz team. All 2017 Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections are based on PPR scoring. The Buccaneers won nine games in 2016 but Pythagorean win percentage and Vegas expect seven or eight in the coming season. The team employs a balanced attack and operates at a fast pace. With a consistent scoring margin, the Projection Machine forecasts 550 passing and 443 rushing attempts.
Scoring Margin Pass Tendency Pace Tendency
League 75th percentile 1.00 0.02 0.85
League 50th percentile -1.25 -0.01 -0.85
League 25th percentile -3.75 -0.04 -2.70
Buccaneers 2015 -4.90 -0.05 0.25
Buccaneers 2016 -2.5 -0.01 2.75
Buccaneers 2017 (Projection) -2.5 -0.01 1.25

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive