Draft Strategy

The Best Fantasy Value in Round Nine

I compared our composite player projections against recent MFL10 ADP to find the best draft target in each round. Which player makes the best selection in the ninth round of fantasy football drafts?

The methodology for this exercise is straightforward. I’m comparing a player’s positional ranking in our fantasy points projections to their positional ADP and looking for the biggest favorable discrepancy in each round. I’m talking primarily about MFL10 best ball drafts, but these findings should be applicable to most PPR redraft formats, and they’ll even have some utility for dynasty players who are mulling trades or otherwise deciding how to value players. Let’s take a look at the ninth round and find the best value.

The Best Fantasy Value in Round Nine

It’s important to note that roster construction is not the primary focus of this exercise. I’m thinking about it in a general way, but I’m not optimizing my decisions here based on the very important structural considerations that come into play in any draft, but especially an MFL10. I’m really just looking for potential value targets.

Player POS POS PR RK POS ADP RK FP ADP
Henry, Hunter TE 14 9 135.9 96.01
Newton, Cam QB 6 8 329.8 97.71
Hunt, Kareem RB 47 38 113.9 98.98
Mariota, Marcus QB 8 9 317.3 99.59
Carr, Derek QB 19 10 299.2 99.69
Ertz, Zach TE 9 10 166.6 101.53
Bennett, Martellus TE 15 11 133.4 102.72
Cousins, Kirk QB 14 11 306.4 104.16
Williams, Tyrell WR 44 45 170.5 104.91
Matthews, Jordan WR 36 46 184.9 107.47

Jordan Matthews, come on down! Matthews’ potential to be a WR1 or even a WR2 went out the window when Alshon Jeffery came to town. But Matthews stock is being punished too much. He’s still a WR3 in our eyes but is being drafted as a low-end WR4. Our projection for Matthews factors in a healthy Jeffery, so we see Matthews as a straight bargain. If Jeffery misses time, however, Matthews has considerable upside.

Don’t take my word for it. Kevin Zatloukal makes a superb argument in favor of Matthews upside in 2017.

Also Considered

Cam Newton is a bounce back candidate at the quarterback position. We’re not yet into “late round QB” territory, but it’s also not egregiously early to consider the position. His 2016 efficiency numbers were below his career average, so we can assume a bit of a return to the norm. He’ll also benefit from two dynamic rookies (Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel). McCaffrey’s presence might signal a reduction in Newton’s rushing attempts, but that could be offset by more effective runs and more passing yardage. McCaffrey looks like a better receiver than Jonathan Stewart and Samuel has the potential to chip in some big plays as well.

Fade Alert

Hunter Henry had a remarkably efficient rookie season. It was so efficient, we should probably expect some regression. Antonio Gates is still there, as are a now healthy Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, and Travis Benjamin. The Chargers could have the deepest set of pass catchers in the league. It seems to me like Henry is being drafted near his ceiling, and if I haven’t grabbed one of the earlier TEs, I’m waiting for a relative bargain in the later rounds.

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @ | Archive

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