Dynasty

Superflex Dynasty Buy Low Target: Jimmy Garoppolo

The key to finding a great value is to take advantage of the market’s uncertainty. It can be argued that no one has more uncertainty than Jimmy Garoppolo, making him my favorite Superflex dynasty buy low.

Why Superflex do you say? In a regular league where you start one quarterback, a QBs value is minimal. But in a Superflex format finding a cheap QB should become our number one goal due to positional scarcity and the fact that QBs score more than any other position, making them almost a must if you hope to compete in that flex spot.

The uncertainties, in this case, are about Tom Brady. Will he either retire or will Bill Belichick, who has never shied away from moving on from his best players, do the same thing with Brady? Brady has stated he wants to play five more years but Father Time is the undefeated champion and Brady is going to be 40 years old this year. Most people seem to think Belichick would never replace Brady until Brady is ready to go but Belichick cares very little about what others think. So then the uncertainty is a combination of not knowing when Garoppolo might play for the Patriots or what situation he ends up in if traded.

The Price is Right

Recently I started a Superflex Dynasty Best Ball league with a bunch of very sharp owners and I was able to draft Garoppolo in the 12th round after Alex Smith, Pat Mahomes, Jared Goff, Deshone Kizer and Paxton Lynch came off the board at the position.

That my friends is CHEAP. Smith is 33 years old and is a bottom-half starting QB with the young Mahomes behind him. Kizer has never played a down in the NFL. Goff and Lynch couldn’t unseat NFL have-not’s Case Keenum or Trevor Semien as rookies and played poorly when given the chance. For me, this is a matter of resisting the urge to take marginal players just to hopefully reap some short term gain.

The Upside

So why am I so high on Garoppolo? He has performed well when given the chance. Picking QBs is at best an inaccurate science but it is better to play well than to play poorly as Lynch and Goff have. So far in his career, Garoppolo has averaged 23 fantasy points per game has a 67 percent completion percentage with five TDs and no interceptions. Small sample to be sure but when given the opportunity he has stepped up and played very well.

Don’t believe me? How about Bruce Arians, who compared him to Tony Romo before getting torched by him in last year’s season opener. Another great offensive mind, Kyle Shanahan, pushed for Garoppolo when he was in Cleveland only to see the team take Johnny Manziel instead. And Julian Edelman, the WR1 for the Patriots the last few years, has called him a “stud”  brimming with confidence and compared him to Aaron Rodgers on the field.

And most importantly Belichick refused to trade him this off-season as he has done with past Patriots backups taking the chance that they might have to either franchise him or trade him with less leverage after the 2017 season. To me, this is actionable information!

Conclusion

The fact that we don’t know when he might play or where he might play has opened the door for opportunity. If he ends up as the starting QB in New England he has top five QB upside and even as a starter elsewhere has shown the potential needed to be successful. There is no reward without either paying dearly for it in a trade or taking some risk. Garoppolo happens to be my favorite risk to take as the upside vs. the price is very favorable.

 

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @TodfromPa or check out my Run to Daylight podcast on Blogtalkradio or Itunes. And happy Dynasty hunting!

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By Tod Burros | @TodfromPA | Archive

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