Opportunity Depth Chart: The Best Wide Receiver Situations – NFC South
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Opportunity Depth Chart is a series about Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt, a way to identify high-value wide receiver opportunity. The introductory article for this concept was published last year and can be found here. An extension of evaluating fantasy football through market share, the idea in which RotoViz signature concepts Dominator Rating and Workhorse Score are rooted, last season’s Opportunity Depth Chart can is here. This exercise looks at the role of the three leading wide receivers every week on each team, measured by snap count, as a season-long whole instead of looking at individual players. It is an attempt to remove narratives surrounding injury and talent, and reveal undervalued players that are expected to fill valuable roles. It is a three-step process:
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- Calculate which WR roles produced the most fantasy points per team pass attempt in the 2016 season.
- Weigh that efficiency against volume, to see which roles had the highest value from an opportunity standpoint. Opportunity is calculated the same way as the first step, using weekly snaps to determine who the WR1, WR2, and WR3 were, on a game-by-game basis.
- Combine the numbers in steps one and two. Combining the Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt in the first step with the number of targets in the second step creates something we’ll call WR Opportunity (WRO), which represents the opportunity that the role provided to a non-specific player.