Opportunity Depth Chart: The Best AFC East Wide Receiver Situations

Opportunity Depth Chart is a series about Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt, a way to identify high-value wide receiver opportunity. The introductory article for this concept was published last year and can be found here. It’s an extension of evaluating fantasy football through market share, the idea in which RotoViz signature concepts Dominator Rating and Workhorse Score are rooted. Last season’s Opportunity Depth Chart can be found here. This exercise looks at the role of the three main WRs every week on each team, measured by snap count, as a season-long whole, instead of looking at individual players. It is an attempt to remove narratives surrounding injury and talent and reveal undervalued players that are expected to fill valuable roles. It is a three-step process:
  1. Calculating which WR roles produced the most fantasy points per team pass attempt in the 2016 season.
  2. Weigh that efficiency against volume, to see which roles had the highest value from an opportunity standpoint. This is calculated the same way as the first step, using weekly snaps to determine who the WR1, WR2, and WR3 were, on a game-by-game basis.
  3. Combine the numbers in steps one and two. When the Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt in the first step is combined with the number of targets in the second step, it creates something we’ll call WR Opportunity (WRO), representing the opportunity that the role provides to a non-specific player.
As a reminder, this process is not intended to predict which roles will be the most valuable in 2017, but rather to see which were most valuable in 2016 and if the player expected to fill that role in 2017 appears to be priced appropriately. There are eight parts to this series, one for each division. The three charts below are in all eight articles to show where each team and role ranks league wide: This is receiving fantasy points only, apologies to  Tavon Austin fans Tyreek Hill‘s clamoring horde of fanatics.

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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