Opportunity Depth Chart: The Best AFC East Wide Receiver Situations
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Opportunity Depth Chart is a series about Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt, a way to identify high-value wide receiver opportunity. The introductory article for this concept was published last year and can be found here. It’s an extension of evaluating fantasy football through market share, the idea in which RotoViz signature concepts Dominator Rating and Workhorse Score are rooted. Last season’s Opportunity Depth Chart can be found here. This exercise looks at the role of the three main WRs every week on each team, measured by snap count, as a season-long whole, instead of looking at individual players. It is an attempt to remove narratives surrounding injury and talent and reveal undervalued players that are expected to fill valuable roles. It is a three-step process:
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- Calculating which WR roles produced the most fantasy points per team pass attempt in the 2016 season.
- Weigh that efficiency against volume, to see which roles had the highest value from an opportunity standpoint. This is calculated the same way as the first step, using weekly snaps to determine who the WR1, WR2, and WR3 were, on a game-by-game basis.
- Combine the numbers in steps one and two. When the Fantasy Points Per Team Attempt in the first step is combined with the number of targets in the second step, it creates something we’ll call WR Opportunity (WRO), representing the opportunity that the role provides to a non-specific player.