NASCAR DFS Picks, Ownership and Race Projections for Daytona
This week NASCAR goes back to Daytona for the second time. DraftKings has another big $350k prize pool GPP with $50k to first place for their NASCAR DFS Daytona slate. Hopefully one of you all will win the NASCAR DFS Daytona GPP and FRWC qualifiers! As usual I’ll give my NASCAR DFS picks, points projections, and ownership projections for Saturday night’s race.
For all of your NASCAR DFS Daytona strategy needs, make sure to check out this week’s NASCAR episode of On the Daily DFS, where Matt Freedman and I go through NASCAR DFS Daytona strategy. Also, tune in for RotoViz Live (rotoviz.com/live) later today. I haven’t set a time, so follow me on Twitter @RotoDoc and I’ll tweet out what time the show will be when I get to Montreal. I will give my NASCAR DFS picks and answer all your NASCAR DFS Daytona questions using the Twitter hashtag #RVLive.
Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer will updated shortly with the machine learning model projections for this week. The NASCAR Splits App will help you find a range of outcomes for each driver, and the NASCAR Sim Scores App has all your favorite driver comps to get a range of outcomes for each driver.
If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the restrictor plate section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers.
Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Daytona.
NASCAR DFS Daytona Model Projections
The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions lower than 20th (yes, on average 35 percent of drivers do NOT finish the Daytona night race since 2013). The ownership percentage model is still running and will be posted shortly
|Dale Earnhardt Jr||1||10.62||11.15||3.75||28.42||10300||16.5%|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||6||12.39||4.55||3.3||28.01||8300||9.9%|
|Martin Truex Jr||25||10.98||8.18||2.13||50.15||9700||35.4%|
|Darrell Wallace Jr||31||18.14||0.46||2.56||40.11||6900||17.0%|
NASCAR DFS Picks — Cash Games
As a reminder, here is why you play drivers starting in the back in cash games. You increase your floor as drivers start further back, but you also increase your ceiling! For cash games, you must pick all six drivers starting 25th (Martin Truex Jr.) or worse!
Here are the NASCAR DFS picks for cash games.
Ty Dillon ($6400) — Daytona is all about place differential, and Ty Dillon is the best driver starting 34th or worse. He’s hasn’t been a super restrictor plate racer over his career, so a GPP fade might be in order, but certainly in cash games he bring the safety to the table, and should pull off a top-25 finish if he avoids the wrecks.
Corey Lajoie ($4800) — Remember, in cash games we want to increase our floor. So rostering Lajoie probably sounds icky to most people, but it’s actually a good play. Lajoie has finished 24th and 27th in the two restrictor plate races this year. A 25th place finish would net him 30 fantasy points.
Elliott Sadler ($6300) — In two restrictor plate races this year, Sadler has finishes of 20th and 17th. Combine that with a 33rd place starting position and now we’re starting to talk points! A 19th place finish would be 39 points for Sadler, and leave you feeling quite good about your cash game roster.
Cole Whitt ($5100) — Do you notice a theme here? Cole Whitt starts 35th and has some great restrictor plate finishes in his career, including an 11th place finish in this race last year. A repeat of that would be a whopping 57 fantasy points. Whitt might be my favorite play on the board this weekend.
NASCAR DFS Picks — GPPs
Chris Buescher ($5900) — Buescher’s been bitten by the bad luck bug at restrictor plates, which I think will keep people off of him and on his teammate A.J. Allmendinger. Buescher is a pure ownership play, and could win you a GPP if other people gravitate toward Allmendinger, Sadler, and Ty Dillon.
A.J. Allmendinger ($6500) — Allmendinger himself is a good play, but I think he’ll be highly owned. He should be though. He finished 3rd here for the Daytona 500, and 13th in this race last year. He’s become a much better restritcor plate racer of late, and is strong play.
Paul Menard ($8100) — Menard is not so popular in NASCAR DFS circles these days, only once garnering an ownership above 15 percent in the past nine races (and that was 15.9 percent at Michigan). Menard has two top-10 finishes this year at plate tracks, might be my favorite of all my NASCAR DFS picks this weekend, and is a great pivot off Allmendinger or the next driver….
Martin Truex Jr. ($9700) — Truex has never won a plate race, but has come close, finishing runner up in last year’s Daytona 500. With a 25th place starting position, he’s far enough back to be in the winning lineup should he pull off a top-five finish.
NASCAR DFS Fades
Drivers starting 5th or better — I believe Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s ownership will be inflated this weekend because he’s on the pole and in his last race at Daytona. I don’t mind up to 10-15 percent ownership, because the pole-sitter has ended up in the top six in DraftKings points four times out of the last 12 Daytona July races, but I do want to be underweight on Earnhardt compared to the field. Outside of the polesitter, only twice has a driver started inside the top five and finished in the top six in DraftKings points at the Daytona night race — Tony Stewart from the 2nd starting position in 2006 and Brad Keselowski from the 5th starting position last year.
Here’s a table of all the drivers to score in the top six in DraftKings points in their respective Daytona night race, with starting position included. Notice how few drivers start toward the front, and how many start 20th or worse. Good luck this weekend everyone!
|Dale Earnhardt Jr.||1||1||68|
|Dale Earnhardt Jr.||13||4||51|
|Juan Pablo Montoya||30||9||61|
|Dale Earnhardt Jr.||35||13||58|
|Dale Earnhardt Jr.||39||3||79|