My Favorite Dynasty Buy Low: Tyreek Hill

Like many RotoViz writers, I take a heavily numbers-based approach to fantasy football. In dynasty, whenever I get new ADP, is to compare current prices to expected prices, which I estimate using projections for next year and age. Large discrepancies between those two give me a set of players to buy or sell.

The Mystery

Last month, I followed my usual process and discovered this strange result:

Player A1323.97510467.5225
Player B5523.3779536.3210

Player B is projected1 for only 15 fewer points than player A next year (and partly compensates for that by being half a year younger), yet player A was priced at 2.01, while player B was priced at 5.07. That basic fact tells me that either (1) player A is overvalued, (2) player B is undervalued, or (3) there is some difference between these players other than production and age that is really important to other drafters.

Those who have read the title of this article will guess that player B is Tyreek Hill. Player A might surprise you.

  1. These projections are an average of those from John Paulsen (4for4), Mike Clay (ESPN), and the RotoViz staff.  (back)

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By Kevin Zatloukal | @kczat | Archive

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