Draft Strategy

Why Draft Michael Crabtree When This WR is Cheaper?

Why buy a car for $20,000 when you can buy the same car with a crappy paint job for half the price? That, in a crude nutshell, is one way of looking at arbitrage, a concept the the Fantasy Douche first applied to fantasy football several years ago. The 2017 draft season presents no shortage of opportunities to purchase players who have a host of things going for them – whether it be their situation, talent, or some other factor – for less than a similar, more expensive player. This time out, I ask the question – why draft Michael Crabtree when a much cheaper option awaits in the later rounds?

PASS ON THE CRAB

I used the RotoViz WR Similarity Scores App to get an idea on the range of outcomes for both Crabtree and this WR, who will remain a mystery for a moment longer.   crabproj

Michael Crabtree

Capture

Discount Michael Crabtree

The difference is about one point per game across both the high and low range of the outcomes; in fact, our WR scores 1.2 points per game better than Crabtree on the low-end of the projection, and their median outcomes in PPR formats are nearly identical. Yet while one of these WRs is being drafted in the fourth round, the other is being taken in eighth and ninth rounds of best ball drafts. Our arbitrage WR also has three 1,000-yard seasons to his name. Any guesses?

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By Cort Smith | @@rotocort | Archive