AdviceIDP

IDP Projections: NFC North

This year I’m publishing all my IDP projections here at Rotoviz. In this edition I’m highlighting some of the scheme, personnel and coaching adjustments or other useful information I used when projecting the NFC North. I’ll share any actionable information such as buy-low players, fades, targets and generally anything which could create informational advantages for our subscribers during drafts in dynasty and redraft leagues. 

MY PROCESS

My first step was to review some publicly accessible defensive position depth charts and compare to my own. I like using Ourlads and Rotoworld. In addition it’s important to review the coaching and defensive scheme changes. I used a balanced scoring system that awards 1.5 points per solo tackle, 0.75 for each assist, 1 point for passes defended, 3 points per sack, 3 points for forced fumbles, 4 points for an interception. I’ve included the pressure rate metric from Football Outsiders as it helps to track defensive pass rush progress and incorporates hurries in addition to sacks. Also included is QB sacks allowed which was helpful for projecting sacks and I thought these would be useful to include for IDP and non-IDP folks for tracking defensive progress. There are many other variables that I review and I’ll note those throughout each projection notebook. I hope these projections help readers to determine their own valuations of players as they develop their draft strategies.

TM 2016 16 HC 16 DC 2015 QB Sacks Allowed 2015 Pressure Rate 2017 17 HC 17 DC 2016 QB Sacks Allowed 2016 Pressure Rate
CHI 3-4 John Fox Vic Fangio 34 24.7% 3-4 John Fox Vic Fangio 28 28.1%
DET 4-3 Jim Caldwell Teryl Austin 44 24.9% 4-3 Jim Caldwell Teryl Austin 37 23.1%
GB 3-4 Mike McCarthy Dom Capers 47 26.5% 3-4 Mike McCarthy Dom Capers 35 27.0%
MIN 4-3 Mike Zimmer George Edwards 45 28.0% 4-3 Mike Zimmer George Edwards 38 31.2%

Nothing changed at coach or scheme, but I think its worth noting the positive movement for pressure rate for the Bears and Vikings.

DEFENSIVE LINE

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Total
Danielle Hunter MIN DE 22 36 24 12 0 0 1 112
Ezekial Ansah DET DE 27 35 12 8 0 0 2 94
Everson Griffen MIN DE 29 35 12 9 0 0 1 93
Linval Joseph MIN DT 28 38 25 3 0 1 0 89
Kerry Hyder DET DE 26 28 13 8 0 0 0 76
Akiem Hicks CHI DE 27 30 14 5 0 0 0 71
Mike Daniels GB DE 28 25 15 4 0 0 0 61
Brian Robinson MIN DE 34 22 8 6 0 0 0 57
A’Shawn Robinson DET DT 22 25 10 3 2 0 0 56
Haloti Ngata DET DT 33 18 12 2 1 0 0 43
Kenny Clark GB DE 21 18 10 1 0 0 0 38
Shamar Stephen MIN DT 25 18 9 1 0 0 0 37
Mitch Unrein CHI DE 30 15 12 1 0 0 0 35
Eddie Goldman CHI DT 23 17 7 1 0 0 0 34
Tom Johnson MIN DT 32 15 8 1 0 0 0 32
Letroy Guion GB DT 30 12 6 1 0 0 0 26
Christian Ringo GB DT 25 10 3 0 0 0 0 17

SOME THOUGHTS

Danielle Hunter is the one to own in this division and will sport an expensive price tag in most drafts as he’s moved into the elite category with room to grow. I can’t help but to think a bounce-back season could be in order for Ezekiel Ansah. He was banged up last season and his tackle numbers were cut in half while only registering two sacks. Ansah should come at an attractive price this year and is one who could significantly outperform his draft position.

TARGET KERRY HYDER

Devin Taylor’s departure from Detroit through free agency has left an opportunity on the defensive line opposite from Ezekial Ansah. Kerry Hyder has a lock on the spot thanks to the Lions not pursuing any edge rushers during the draft and allowing Taylor to walk. There are many who see the eight sacks Hyder had last year as a fluke as three came in one game and this is likely why he’s receiving very little hype.

Hyder needed an Ezekial Ansah injury to get him enough opportunity to show what he could do last season. Now with the Lions showing faith in Hyder, he will have a full season to improve upon last year’s numbers. At the moment he appears in very few rankings and represents a buy-low opportunity despite the increase in role and snaps coming into the season. My projection has him holding last year’s form with some increase in tackles.

LINEBACKER

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Total
Jerrell Freeman CHI LB 31 85 24 1 4 4 4 185
Eric Kendricks MIN LB 25 80 42 3 6 0 0 167
Jarrad Davis DET LB 21 75 26 0 4 0 0 136
Nick Kwiatkoski CHI LB 24 67 22 1 3 0 0 123
Tahir Whitehead DET LB 27 65 25 0 4 0 0 120
Jake Ryan GB LB 25 60 30 0 2 0 0 115
Edmond Robinson MIN LB 25 58 28 1 2 0 0 113
Blake Martinez GB LB 23 52 28 1 4 0 0 106
Clay Matthews GB LB 31 42 12 8 4 0 1 104
Anthony Barr MIN LB 25 41 16 4 5 0 2 99
Leonard Floyd CHI LB 24 28 12 8 1 0 1 80
Pernell McPhee CHI LB 28 22 10 5 0 0 0 56
Nick Perry GB LB 27 18 10 5 1 0 0 51
Danny Trevathan CHI LB 27 24 12 1 2 0 0 50
Paul Worrilow DET LB 27 23 5 0 2 0 0 40
Jalin Reeves-Maybin DET LB 22 12 4 0 0 0 0 21

SOME THOUGHTS

Jerrell Freeman can be had for a fair price in most drafts, and he has top-10 upside at the linebacker position. He put up 85 solo tackles in only 12 games last season, as he missed the first four due to a suspension. Freeman was last season’s highest-graded LB by Pro Football Focus. Danny Trevethan is rehabbing a torn patellar, and I’m projecting Nick Kwiatkoski to continue to start next to Freeman for the majority of the season.

With so many rookies in the mix in Detroit, they’re a challenge to project at LB. I’m not writing off Tahir Whitehead just yet, and I’m not yet taking a leap of faith on Reeves-Maybin. Paul Worrilow makes for a sneaky hedge on the situation in Detroit if you’re desperate anywhere.

GET EXCITED ABOUT EDMOND ROBINSON

Chad Greenway has retired and his weakside LB position will be open competition among the numerous inexperienced LBs on the Vikings roster. According to off-season news and reports from OTA’s, Edmond Robinson and Emmanuel Lamur are in the lead, with observers pointing out that Robinson has taken the majority of snaps. For this reason, it’s worth taking a closer look at 25-year-old Edmond Robinson.

YR Name College G Solo Ast Sack FF PD
14 Edmund Robinson Newberry 11 54 14 0 0 5
13 Edmund Robinson Newberry 12 42 27 2.5 1 6
12 Edmund Robinson Newberry 8 26 15 0 0 1
11 Edmund Robinson Newberry 10 14 8 0 1 1

From Mockdraftable:

Edmond Robinson Combine

Robinson sported a solid resume of college production during his days at Newberry College. It’s worth noting that he caught enough scount’s eyes that he was invited to the NFL Combine as an outside LB. Robinson delivered a top-25-percentile 40 time and flashed in other measurables which compare favorably to several successful every-down LBs. Overall, Robinson was a great LB prospect coming out of college, and from an athletic standpoint, we should be excited to see what he can do in a full-time role.

On the other hand, there’s Emmanuel Lamur, who started a LB at times for the Bengals. His most notable accomplishment was 53 solo tackles out of 13 starts in 2014. Most of his starts were in relief of Vontaze Burfict, who missed a number of starts in the past three seasons. In my IDP drafts this summer, fantasy GM’s have had an affinity for Lamur over Robinson likely due to Lamur being a former starter.

Edmond Robinson is entering his third season in the Vikings organization, as opposed to Lamur entering his second season. So far both have seen very little time on the field during games as a LB for the Vikings, and one will win the job. As you can see I’m projecting Robinson to win the job, and he is much cheaper to acquire at the moment. In deep dynasty leagues, he’s worth a review of your free agent pool to see if he can be had.

DEFENSIVE BACK

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Total
Morgan Burnett GB S 28 75 26 1 5 1 0 144
Harrison Smith MIN S 28 68 22 2 2 0 0 127
Tavon Wilson DET S 26 74 16 0 3 0 0 126
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix GB S 24 65 18 0 6 2 0 125
Demarious Randall GB CB 24 60 8 0 12 0 0 108
Prince Amukamura CHI CB 28 58 12 0 8 1 0 108
Darius Slay DET CB 26 50 6 0 15 3 0 107
Quinton Demps CHI S 31 60 10 0 8 0 0 106
Xavier Rhodes MIN CB 27 50 8 0 10 2 0 99
Marcus Cooper CHI CB 27 52 8 0 10 1 0 98
Andrew Sendejo MIN S 29 52 22 0 3 0 0 98
Glover Quinn DET S 30 56 12 0 4 0 0 97
Adrian Amos CHI S 24 55 10 0 5 0 0 95
Tray Waynes MIN CB 24 42 6 0 10 2 0 86
Teez Tabor DET CB 21 40 8 0 8 1 0 78
Kevin King GB CB 22 34 3 0 8 0 0 61
Nevin Lawson DET CB 26 35 4 0 4 0 0 60
Bryce Callahan CHI CB 25 32 3 0 4 0 0 54

MORGAN BURNETT IS A VALUE AGAIN

Last year I pointed out that the wrong safety in Green Bay was being drafted early. Somehow that’s happening again, as Morgan Burnett presently sits behind Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in MyFantasyLeague ADP and in the Fantasy Pros rankings. Morgan Burnett has all the upside opportunity due to him producing a 105-solo-tackle season a few years ago, and he expects to be in the thick of the tackle opportunity again. That will be especially true if the Packers continue to use him as a LB on some passing downs.

I can see the argument of Clinton-Dix being ranked higher in dynasty, as Burnett’s contract us set to expire next season, and the Packers just invested a second-round pick in North Carolina State safety Josh Jones. For redraft you can’t beat the value that Burnett represents, and I think those drafting Clinton-Dix ahead of him win the IDP cognitive dissonance award for the year.

MILES KILLEBREW A HOLD FOR 2018

As you can see I’m projecting Tavon Wilson to hold the starting job over Miles Killebrew. Killebrew played in 149 snaps last season in roles as a hybrid safety and LB. Killebrew excites fans based on his big hits during his time in college.

Coverage is a concern and potentially a reason why Killebrew isn’t a starter yet. PFF noted recently that while Killebrew expects and increased role this season, “…he allowed a passer rating of 95.4 on throws into his primary coverage, the highest mark among all Lions safeties and the ninth highest of 15 rookie safeties with at least 100 coverage snaps. He finished the 2016 with an overall grade of 54.8.”

Killebrew would need a Tavon Wilson or Glover Quinn injury right now to grab the starting strong safety role, but I think he still makes for an interesting acquisition target if the price is reasonable due to Wilson’s contract expiring following this season.

FADE HARRISON SMITH  

Harrison Smith is being valued as a top pick at defensive back in redrafts this off-season, and my projections do not reflect that for him. The reason is that his peak seasons were 2012 and 2014, and he played nearly every snap in both those seasons with a high-water mark of solo tackles at 71. I don’t see any favorable trends for Smith that could lead to more than 71 solo tackles or other statistics that would add value. To me he’s as an easy fade at his current prices.

Subscribe to the best.

By Eric Braun | @FFPlanetX | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply