IDP

IDP Projections: NFC East

In this edition, I share my IDP and projections on Damon Harrison, Zach Brown, B.J. Goodson, Su’a Cravens. I’ll highlight the scheme, personnel and coaching adjustments I used when projecting the NFC East.

I’ll share actionable information such as buy-low players, fades, targets and generally anything which could create informational advantages for our subscribers.

MY PROCESS

My first step was to review some defensive position depth charts and compare them to my own. I like using Ourlads and Rotoworld. It’s also important to review the coaching and defensive scheme changes. I used a balanced scoring system:

  • 1.5 points per solo tackle.
  • 0.75 for each assist.
  • 1 point for passes defended.
  • 3 points per sack.
  • 3 points for forced fumbles.
  • 4 points for an interception.

I’ve included the pressure rate metric from Football Outsiders, as it helps to track defensive pass rush progress and incorporates hurries in addition to sacks. Also included is QB sacks allowed, which was helpful for projecting sacks.. There are many other variables I’ll review; they’ll be noted throughout each projection. I hope these projections help readers to determine their own valuations of players as they develop their draft strategies.

In the chart below, we don’t see any scheme changes and only one coaching change. Fortunately for value seekers, many IDP player values are changing in this division despite the lack of scheme changes. Due to open position battles and free agent movement, there are plenty players to target.

TM 2016 16 HC 16 DC 2015 QB Sacks Allowed 2015 Pressure Rate 2017 17 HC 17 DC 2016 QB Sacks Allowed 2016 Pressure Rate
DAL 4-3 Jason Garrett Rod Marinelli 33 24.6% 4-3 Jason Garrett Rod Marinelli 28 23.1%
NYG 4-3 Ben McAdoo Steve Spagnuolo 27 25.9% 4-3 Ben McAdoo Steve Spagnuolo 22 29.2%
PHI 4-3 Doug Pederson Jim Schwartz 37 24.9% 4-3 Doug Pederson Jim Schwartz 33 31.6%
WAS 3-4 Jay Gruden Joe Barry 27 22.6% 3-4 Jay Gruden Greg Manusky 23 28.4%

DEFENSIVE LINE

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Damon Harrison NYG DT 28 48 32 2 0 0 2 110
Jason Pierre-Paul NYG DE 26 45 20 8 0 0 0 107
Oliver Vernon NYG DE 28 40 20 9 0 0 0 102
Brandon Graham PHI DE 29 40 15 6 0 0 2 97
Fletcher Cox PHI DT 26 32 18 7 0 0 1 87
Jonathan Allen WAS DE 22 28 18 4 0 0 0 68
Tyrone Crawford DAL DE 27 26 10 5 0 0 0 62
Chris Long PHI DE 32 25 12 5 0 0 0 62
Romeo Okwara NYG DT 22 28 14 2 0 0 0 59
Timmy Jernigan PHI DT 24 17 15 4 0 0 0 49
Derek Barnett PHI DE 21 20 8 4 0 0 0 48
Maliek Collins DAL DT 22 18 7 5 0 0 0 47
Taco Charlton DAL DE 22 19 7 4 0 0 0 46
Demarcus Lawrence DAL DE 25 18 6 3 0 0 0 41
Cedric Thornton DAL DT 29 15 10 1 0 0 0 33
Terrell McClain WAS DE 28 15 9 1 0 0 0 32
Stacy McGee WAS DT 27 14 10 1 0 0 0 32

SOME THOUGHTS

This division is loaded with great options at DE, with Oliver Vernon, Jason Pierre-Paul and Brandon Graham. Three highly-drafted rookies in Taco Charlton, Jonathan Allen and Derek Barnett will be interesting to watch this season, but I generally don’t like to take a rookie end in a redraft.

DAMON HARRISON

Damon Harrison is one of my favorite players, not just because he’s got the best nickname in football, but I like that he came the small school route and continued to grow into a dominant pro. Last year, he put up the best tackle numbers of his career, and they were so amazing that I wanted to take a deeper look at his career progression. He had a 110 snap increase and roughly maintained his tackle rate1. Considering he’s now the fifth-highest-paid defensive tackle in the league, it’s a good bet Harrison will see the same amount of snaps in 2017.

Snaps Tackles Tackle Rate
2016 673 86 12.8%
2015 565 72 12.7%
2014 485 55 11.3%
2013 499 66 13.2%

LINEBACKERS

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Sean Lee DAL LB 30 90 50 0 2 0 0 175
Zach Brown WAS LB 27 85 35 2 3 0 0 163
BJ Goodson NYG LB 24 65 26 1 5 0 0 125
Nigel Bradham PHI LB 27 65 22 1 4 0 0 121
Jordan Hicks PHI LB 25 54 25 1 8 2 0 119
Will Compton WAS LB 27 58 25 0 3 0 0 109
Keenan Robinson NYG LB 27 52 24 0 6 0 0 102
Ryan Kerrigan WAS LB 28 34 10 10 2 0 2 99
Anthony Hitchens DAL LB 25 40 32 1 1 0 0 88
Jonathan Casillas NYG LB 30 40 20 1 2 0 0 80
Jaylon Smith DAL LB 22 40 15 0 1 0 0 72
Mason Foster WAS LB 28 25 16 6 3 0 0 71
Mychal Kendricks PHI LB 26 28 10 2 2 0 0 58
Trent Murphy WAS LB 26 16 9 5 0 0 0 46

SOME THOUGHTS

The Washington linebacker situation is a little muddy right now, with last year’s starters in Will Compton, Mason Foster and Preston Brown still on the roster, and now the team signed Zach Brown during the off-season.

Last year, in Buffalo, Zach Brown had an incredible tackle rate of 15 percent and should do well in Washington in a similar role. In my projections, I decided on Will Compton and Mason Foster splitting production at the other ILB position, but I expect to adjust these numbers a few times between now and September.

Another buying opportunity with some upside is Jaylon Smith, who is set to gain snaps this season after playing zero in 2016 as he recovered from a knee injury suffered during the bowl game in his final season at Notre Dame. Following the recent news that it will be six to nine months before he will have full regeneration of the damaged nerve, I think it’s best to stay away from Smith in redraft. In dynasty, his value is higher than it was last season, but not much. This might be a good time to acquire Smith if the price is right.

TARGET BJ GOODSON, NYG

Last summer I liked B.J. Goodson’s landing spot and NFL Combine resume enough to write that he was a candidate to be the next Kwon Alexander. Now B.J. Goodson is poised to take over as the starting middle linebacker for the Giants after reports during OTAs had him calling the plays and lining the defense up from the MIKE position. Goodson has a chance to be a force in IDP leagues, and an LB2 season is a possibility with starter snaps. Goodson will come cheap, as he can likely be targeted late in drafts.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Landon Collins NYG S 23 95 20 2 12 0 0 176
Malcolm Jenkins PHI S 29 65 30 0 10 2 1 142
Bashaud Breeland WAS CB 25 64 14 0 14 2 2 137
Su’a Cravens WAS S 21 70 22 1 5 0 1 134
Josh Norman WAS CB 29 54 20 0 15 3 2 131
Rodney McLeod PHI S 27 70 14 0 6 2 0 130
DJ Swearinger WAS S 25 70 18 0 6 1 0 129
Byron Jones DAL S 24 70 14 0 12 0 0 128
Janoris Jenkins NYG CB 28 50 6 0 15 3 0 107
Eli Apple NYG CB 21 55 10 0 10 1 0 104
Darian Thompson NYG S 23 54 12 0 5 0 0 95
Jalen Mills PHI CB 23 50 10 0 8 1 0 95
Jeff Heath DAL S 26 55 8 0 3 0 0 92
Nolan Carroll DAL CB 30 40 6 0 8 0 0 73
Orlando Scandrick DAL CB 30 35 5 0 6 0 0 62
Patrick Robinson PHI CB 29 32 6 0 4 1 0 61
Anthony Brown DAL CB 23 32 5 0 6 0 0 58

SOME THOUGHTS

Due to being the strong safety and only playing 295 snaps last season, Su’a Cravens has the most breakout potential at defensive back here in the NFC East. In a very small sample, he sported a strong 11.2 percentage tackle rate last season. Cravens should be on everyone’s breakout target list for 2017.

Jeff Heath is projected to replace the departed Barry Church and start at strong safety for Dallas this season. But that starting spot is not assured, and there is competition afoot with Kavon Frazier. Due to the past production at this position in Dallas, whomever wins the starting job will be valuable in IDP leagues this season. This competition is worth keeping an eye on this summer.

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  1. percent of total tackles to snaps  (back)
By Eric Braun | @FFPlanetX | Archive

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