IDP

IDP Projections: AFC West

This edition includes IDP projections for Ramik Wilson, Denzel Perryman, Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa, Justin Simmons and others.  

In this edition, I’m highlighting some of the scheme, personnel and coaching adjustments or other useful information I used when projecting the AFC West. I’ll share actionable information such as buy-low players, fades, targets and anything which could create an advantage for our subscribers during their drafts.

MY PROCESS

My first step was to review some publicly available defensive position depth charts and compare to my own. I like using Ourlads and Rotoworld. Also, it’s important to evaluate coaching and defensive scheme changes. I used a balanced scoring system that awards 1.5 points per solo tackle, 0.75 for each assist, 1 point for passes defended, 3 points per sack, 3 points for forced fumbles, and 4 points for an interception. I’ve included the pressure rate metric from Football Outsiders as it helps track defensive pass rush progress and incorporates hurries in addition to sacks. Also included is QB sacks allowed which was helpful for projecting sacks. There are many other variables that I review and I’ll note those throughout each projection notebook. I hope these projections help readers to determine their valuations of players as they develop their draft strategies.

Both Wade Phillips and John Pagano are out in Denver and Los Angeles respectively, and both of their replacements are flipping defensive schemes. Many AFC West defensive player values are set to change dramatically.

TM 2016 16 HC 16 DC 2015 QB Sacks Allowed 2015 Pressure Rate 2017 17 HC 17 DC 2016 QB Sacks Allowed 2016 Pressure Rate
DEN 3-4 Gary Kubiak Wade Phillips 39 32.7% 3-4 Vance Joseph Joe Woods 40 32.2%
KC 3-4 Andy Reid Bob Sutton 46 28.1% 3-4 Andy Reid Bob Sutton 32 24.4%
LAC 3-4 Mike McCoy John Pagano 40 25.2% 4-3 Anthony Lynn Gus Bradley 36 26.8%
OAK 4-3 Jack Del Rio Ken Norton 33 24.1% 3-4 Jack Del Rio Ken Norton 18 26.9%

DEFENSIVE LINE

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Corey Liuget LAC DT 27 32 8 2 0 0 1 64
Brandon Mebane LAC DT 32 16 5 1 0 0 0 31
Domata Peko DEN DT 32 18 10 1 0 0 0 38
Bennie Logan KC DT 27 20 9 1 0 0 0 40
Justin Ellis OAK DT 26 16 6 0 0 0 0 29
Jihad Ward OAK DE 23 24 16 1 0 0 0 51
Mario Edwards OAK DE 23 20 13 0 0 0 0 40
Joey Bosa LAC DE 21 40 18 12 0 0 0 110
Melvin Ingram LAC DE 28 50 14 9 3 0 4 132
Damion Square LAC DT 28 18 6 3 0 0 0 41
Derek Wolfe DEN DE 27 38 14 5 1 0 0 84
Jared Crick DEN DE 27 28 20 2 2 0 1 69
Chris Jones KC DE 22 28 12 2 0 0 0 57
Rakeem Nunez-Roches KC DE 23 18 11 1 0 0 0 38

SOME THOUGHTS

The Chargers are moving to Los Angeles, and in addition to the different city, their defensive scheme is changing. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are the obvious beneficiaries of the scheme change. My projections for Bosa are on the conservative side, but his ceiling could be extraordinary. Many were calling him the next JJ Watt by the end of last season, and with the switch to the 4-3, the optimism should be at a peak.

Melvin Ingram is also one of the best potential DL1 players. I love Ingram this season in redrafts, and my projection is on the liberal side for him as I’m bullish on his fit in a new role. For leagues that award additional points for tackles for loss or QB hits Ingram could already be in elite territory at the DE position. A word of caution to those in dynasty drafts: keep in mind how quickly the fortunes of a defensive player can change. Scheme changes make the defensive line an awkward position to invest in long-term.

Heading into August drafts, I want one of JJ Watt, Danielle Hunter, Melvin Ingram, or Joey Bosa. What I love is it’s entirely possible to get two of these players.

LINEBACKERS

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Denzel Perryman LAC LB 23 85 23 2 2 0 1 157
Ramik Wilson KC LB 24 85 18 0 3 0 0 144
Khalil Mack OAK LB 28 51 18 12 2 0 3 140
Derrick Johnson KC LB 34 75 20 1 4 0 1 139
Brandon Marshall DEN LB 27 75 25 0 2 0 1 137
Jatavis Brown LAC LB 23 74 17 3 4 0 0 137
Von Miller DEN LB 28 50 13 12 2 0 3 135
Todd Davis DEN LB 25 66 35 0 1 0 0 126
Tyrell Adams OAK LB 25 65 25 0 2 0 1 122
Cory James OAK LB 24 60 22 0 0 0 0 107
Shane Ray DEN LB 24 35 15 10 1 0 0 95
Justin Houston KC LB 28 34 5 8 3 0 1 86
Bruce Irvin OAK LB 29 32 10 8 2 0 1 86
Dee Ford KC LB 26 28 10 9 1 0 0 78
Kyle Emmanuel LAC LB 25 37 20 0 0 0 0 71
Tamba Hali KC LB 33 26 8 4 0 0 1 61

SOME THOUGHTS

In Oakland, I don’t have a feel yet for that situation. Currently, Corey James and Tyrell Adams may be in the lead, but I continue to view this as a fluid situation, with Jelani Jenkins and even Ben Heeney still in play.

Todd Davis in Denver looks like a real deal as a late round LB. He produced 93 total tackles on only 693 snaps last season. He needs to secure the every down role, and hopefully, he can improve on coverage during the off-season enough to impress the new staff. The upside is worth the gamble so take Davis late in your drafts.

RAMIK WILSON

Ramik Wilson was cut by Kansas City but returned and posted respectable season total numbers while flashing an elite tackle rate 1 above 14 percent. 

Coming into the league, Wilson was as an athletic player. His NFL combine compared favorably to successful Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley. For extra motivation, Wilson is on the final year of his initial 2-year rookie contract. Remember that Derrick Johnson is now 34 years old and rehabbing a torn Achilles and may be pushing it to be ready by the regular season. Opportunity abounds for Ramik Wilson in 2017 and beyond.

KHALIL MACK

The biggest losers in the AFC West scheme adjustments are the fantasy owners with shares of Khalil Mack. I hope you enjoyed the ride last season; I know I did.

Mack’s projections as a linebacker make him as an option to start for some fantasy teams depending on league size and scoring system, but he won’t be able to produce numbers to make him anywhere near elite at the position. You’ll need to be in leagues with heavy scoring for sacks and QB hits for Mack to be elite. For balanced scoring leagues, Mack won’t have the steady dose of weekly tackles to make him a reliable starter over any of the every down, traditional off the ball linebackers that aren’t edge rushers.

DENZEL PERRYMAN

The fact that Denzel Perryman recorded three LB1 weeks and three LB2 weeks on only 483 snaps is incredible. Here’s a list of players ranked around him in numbers of LB1 weeks. Check out some of the big names that played mostly full snaps. 

LB1 LB2 LB3  LB Name
3 4 2 David, Lavonte TBB LB
3 4 2 Robertson, Craig NOS LB
3 2 2 Dansby, Karlos CIN LB
3 2 1 Bellore, Nick SFO LB
3 3 0 Brown, Jatavis SDC LB
3 3 0 Perryman, Denzel SDC LB
2 7 3 Posluszny, Paul JAC LB
2 7 3 Smith, Telvin JAC LB
2 4 4 Wright, K.J. SEA LB
2 4 4 Kendricks, Eric MIN LB

Each time I reviewed my projection for Perryman I wanted to bump it. From a numbers standpoint, Perryman is the type of player we should be targeting for 2017 because he has excelled in his limited snaps his first two seasons, his role will be the every down middle linebacker, and he was coming at a discount due to his injury last year. Hopefully, Perryman avoids the nagging injuries that kept him off the field. If he does, he’ll pay significant dividends to those who draft him. 

DEFENSIVE BACKS

NAME TM POS AGE SOLO AST SK PD INT FF Tot
Eric Berry KC S 28 70 13 10 10 2 0 163
Reggie Nelson OAK S 33 52 16 0 12 4 2 126
Ron Parker KC S 29 64 10 0 12 1 1 124
TJ Ward DEN S 30 60 12 2 6 1 1 119
Chris Harris DEN CB 28 55 7 0 13 2 1 113
Casey Hayward LAC CB 27 48 7 0 15 5 0 112
Jahleel Addai LAC S 27 62 14 0 7 0 0 111
Karl Joseph OAK S 23 60 16 0 8 0 0 110
David Amerson OAK CB 25 54 6 0 15 1 0 105
Marcus Peters KC CB 24 38 12 0 17 5 0 103
Dwight Lowery LAC S 31 50 16 0 8 2 0 103
Jason Verrett LAC CB 26 42 8 0 10 3 0 91
Aqib Taleb DEN CB 31 38 9 0 12 3 0 88
Darian Stewart DEN S 28 45 13 0 6 1 0 87
Terrance Mitchell KC CB 25 42 5 0 10 1 0 81
Sean Smith OAK CB 29 35 8 0 12 2 0 79
Bradley Roby DEN CB 25 34 5 0 10 2 0 73
Gareon Conley OAK CB 22 35 7 0 8 0 0 66
Justin Simmons DEN S 23 30 5 0 3 0 0 52

SOME THOUGHTS

Justin Simmons is backing up both TJ Ward and Darian Stewart. Simmons flashed when called upon at free and strong safety last year, and the Broncos staff believe he could start if needed. TJ Ward is at the end of his contract and becomes an unrestricted free agent next season so those with Simmons in dynasty need to hang on for one more year to see if Denver lets Ward walk.

Jahleel Addae is one I’m optimistic about but not going out of my way to acquire. I’ve yet to see any data suggesting he’ll be an elite safety. Addae produced only one DB1 game last season.

Terrance Mitchell could present a sneaky opportunity in drafts and auctions that require cornerbacks. He’s projected as a starter by Rotoworld but still must compete for the position. Consider he had a better performance than his competition for the right cornerback role in Kansas City according to Pro Football Focus and this could be an indicator that he has the edge to start.

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  1. Total tackles as a percent of all snaps.  (back)
By Eric Braun | @FFPlanetX | Archive

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