IDP Projections: AFC West

This edition includes IDP projections for Ramik Wilson, Denzel Perryman, Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa, Justin Simmons and others.   In this edition, I’m highlighting some of the scheme, personnel and coaching adjustments or other useful information I used when projecting the AFC West. I’ll share actionable information such as buy-low players, fades, targets and anything which could create an advantage for our subscribers during their drafts.


My first step was to review some publicly available defensive position depth charts and compare to my own. I like using Ourlads and Rotoworld. Also, it’s important to evaluate coaching and defensive scheme changes. I used a balanced scoring system that awards 1.5 points per solo tackle, 0.75 for each assist, 1 point for passes defended, 3 points per sack, 3 points for forced fumbles, and 4 points for an interception. I’ve included the pressure rate metric from Football Outsiders as it helps track defensive pass rush progress and incorporates hurries in addition to sacks. Also included is QB sacks allowed which was helpful for projecting sacks. There are many other variables that I review and I’ll note those throughout each projection notebook. I hope these projections help readers to determine their valuations of players as they develop their draft strategies. Both Wade Phillips and John Pagano are out in Denver and Los Angeles respectively, and both of their replacements are flipping defensive schemes. Many AFC West defensive player values are set to change dramatically.

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By Eric Braun | @FFPlanetX | Archive