Draft Strategy

Finding Fantasy Value in the Tenth Round

I compared our composite player projections against recent MFL10 ADP to find the best draft target in each round. Which player makes the best selection in the 10th round of fantasy football drafts?

The methodology for this exercise is straightforward. I’m comparing a player’s positional ranking in our fantasy points projections to their positional ADP and looking for the biggest favorable discrepancy in each round. I’m talking primarily about MFL10 best ball drafts, but these findings should be applicable to most PPR redraft formats, and they’ll even have some utility for dynasty players who are mulling trades or otherwise deciding how to value players. Let’s take a look at the 10th round and find the best value.

The Best Fantasy Value in Round 10

It’s important to note that roster construction is not the primary focus of this exercise. I’m thinking about it in a general way, but I’m not optimizing my decisions here based on the very important structural considerations that come into play in any draft, but especially an MFL10. I’m really just looking for potential value targets.

Wallace, Mike WR 33 47 192.1 108.53
Roethlisberger, Ben QB 9 12 315.6 109.53
Ebron, Eric TE 10 12 164.2 111.95
Prescott, Dak QB 18 13 299.4 112.88
Enunwa, Quincy WR 31 48 195.9 113.17
Thielen, Adam WR 48 49 163 114.06
Dixon, Kenneth RB 49 39 111.2 115.51
Stafford, Matthew QB 15 14 305.4 115.76
Johnson, Duke RB 29 40 158.1 115.93
White, James RB 38 41 136 116.05
Britt, Kenny WR 29 50 199 116.67
Jones, Marvin WR 37 51 184.5 117.62
Rivers, Philip QB 12 15 309.1 117.68
Doyle, Jack TE 12 13 151.2 117.85
Matthews, Rishard WR 55 52 150.5 119.91

Duke Johnson makes for a nice selection in the 10th round. We see him as a top-30 RB, which makes him a real nice bargain at his ADP. We know he’ll have a decent role in the passing game, and he could see a huge increase in opportunity should anything untoward happen to Isaiah Crowell. Jordan Hoover gives you an in-depth look at Johnson’s value.

Our projection for Johnson is in line with the median performance of his comparable players. That makes me feel confident in his outlook. But what if Johnson turns in a 75th percentile season? All that takes is a jump from our projected 9.2 points per game to 10.9 points per game. So one extra catch and a few more yards. That gets Johnson up to 174 points on the season or roughly RB21.

Also Considered

Quincy Enunwa, Kenny Britt, Mike Wallace, and Marvin Jones. Wow. There’s a lot of WR value available here in the 10th round. If you’re in a league that allows trading for picks, maybe pick up some extra here. If not, put these guys on your trade targets list. All of these WRs have featured favorably in recent content.

Fade Alert

Dak Prescott was great as a rookie. We just see the hype getting a little ahead of his likely production.

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @ | Archive

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