Draft Strategy

3 Candidates To Be This Year’s Todd Gurley

3 Candidates is a series that identifies key traits of the best and worst picks of 2016 and which players could be this year’s version of those players.  Part of a six-article series, I’m trying to find the players who look most similar to some of last year’s best or worst draft picks. It’s important to remember that the statement I’m making is: “If there is one like them this year, it may be…” as opposed to the fundamentally different argument: “There will be another this year, and it’s going to be…” So, what was Todd Gurley last season? We know now that he was the third worst running back pick, and the fourth worst overall pick, in My Fantasy League MFL10s, as determined by win rate.1 But what was he a year ago, before we knew that? What were the key descriptors one would have used to describe Gurley last June?
  • A young RB coming off a very productive season, who outperformed his average draft position.
  • On a team with an expected-to-be-strong defense and expected-to-be-awful offense.
  • No significant team competition at his position.
  • Very high ADP (RB1, 1.06 or 6th overall, for all 2016 MFL10s).
Which RBs closely fit that description this year?
  1. “Win rate” is the percentage of teams rostering any one player that won an MFL10 league.  (back)

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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  1. Jason says:

    Surprised Jordan Howard and Crowell weren't mentioned here.

  2. I was able to keep Gordon with a late pick (7th round). Wondering now if I should try and flip him before the season starts, or just live with the likely RB2 numbers from him (which would still be a value given what his cost was to me this year)

  3. Howard's usage was so high, and they made no personnel moves at RB, and their offense even if healthy doesn't have materially different competition for touches and market shares than they had last year. The OC showed signs of surprising competency and is back. The other factor is Howard's ADP isn't that high, I am warier of Ajayi.

  4. It would depend on the rules of your keeper league and if their price escalates over time, but if you can flip him for a top WR with similar penalties I would. WRs that are a little older have perceived shorter timelines than younger RBs even though positional bust rates and age declination says they shouldn't (someone like Dez or Crabtree).

    If you can get a young WR, especially one worth less than Gordon and picks, I would too, someone like Watkins, Keenan, Cooper, or Diggs.

  5. In our league, if players are kept for a 2nd straight year, the price escalates to a 1st round pick. I'll be on the lookout pre-draft for a Gordon for WR swap. Thanks Mocker!

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