AdviceIDP

IDP Projections and Rankings: AFC North

This year I’m publishing all my IDP projections here at Rotoviz. In this edition I’m highlighting some of the scheme, personnel and coaching adjustments or other useful information I used when projecting the AFC South. I’ll share any actionable information, such as buy-low players, fades, targets and generally anything which could create informational advantages for our subscribers during drafts in dynasty and redraft leagues. 

MY PROCESS

At Rotoviz we proudly host the one and only Projection Machine, and it’s one of my favorite tools on the site.  For the past two seasons I’ve been actively projecting all 32 teams offenses, and during the season I project two NFL divisions for all 16 games. Through that work I’ve developed a process that I use to evaluate players and project their statistics. I thought I would take that work to IDP last season and projected each team. This season I’m going to share some of my thoughts that can help IDP players in their off-season preparations for redraft, or can help them in dynasty drafts and orphan team overhauls. Maybe some readers will use these projections as a baseline to form their own. My first step was to review some publicly accessible defensive position depth charts and compare to my own. I like using Ourlads and Rotoworld. In addition, it’s important to review the coaching and defensive scheme changes. I used a balanced scoring system that awards 1.5 points per solo tackle, 0.75 for each assist, 1 point for passes defended, 3 points per sack, 3 points for forced fumbles, 4 points for an interception. I’ve included the pressure rate metric from Football Outsiders, as it helps to track defensive pass rush progress and incorporates hurries in addition to sacks. Also included is QB sacks allowed, which was helpful for projecting sacks and I thought these would be useful to include for IDP and non-IDP folks for tracking defensive progress. A couple of things stand out from this division for IDP purposes. Most notably Cleveland shifts to a 4-3 defense under Gregg Williams.

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By Eric Braun | @FFPlanetX | Archive

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  1. Is there a central place where these protections have been loaded/ranked?

    We are in a 14 team IDP league.. 4 pt sack and 1.5 pt tackle. We also can play 4 WRs.. ideal for zero rb

    I am unsure as to when to get IDP players? Any suggestions? I am thinking JJ around 5th rd, but feel like it is a high price to pay when I can load on WRs. Thoughts?

  2. Eric says:

    We don't have a central place yet but have just launched the offense rankings and IDP rankings may be in the future. Stay tuned. For your question, given you score 4 points per sack that's enough to consider Watt early on. I play in the same format a lot and typically am drafting 1000 yard WRs in that range. I'm comfortable paying a 6th round pick for Watt but its still difficult to do given the options there. My IDP portion of the draft usually kicks in following round 9. This year I want to draft one elite or potentially elite DE just wait on the rest. Lots of good values at linebacker and we'll see plenty emerge for the waiver wire as they do every year. Watt is the only one I'd reach for in any way. The other DE are just a few sacks turned QB hits away from the variance that makes their selection a bust. Just like offensive players, you need those picks to return value and I usually talk myself out of drafting IDP at their ceiling which is what many of those early picks are. IDP is tricky though. We have no quality ADP to review and each draft breaks totally different for IDP runs. Two of my favorite late LBs are Whitehead and McKinney.

  3. Thank you for your response.

    Yeah, I am targeting the 1000 yd receivers at that position as well. That is what makes this tricky. Mack is listed as DE in ESPN, I think it makes sense to get one of those 2. Problem is if I am going WR x5 or WR x4 + TE, by round 6, I want to get some RBs to balance the roster (some one like Doug Martin).

    A viable strategy could be to take JJ in Rd5/6, and then switch over to RB/WR in the later rounds. I think I can stream a DB without any issues and with LBs, I am also high on McKinney.

    I tend to use MFL for ADP on IDP, do you have a different source you use? Also, Is there a good site where you can mock drafts with IDP?

  4. Eric says:

    For ADP I also use MFL and Fantasypros gives me an idea of what the crowd might do. Usually I've had a few startups or early redrafts to give me some idea as well. I've not yet run across mock IDP but would be all over that if I did.

  5. @PlanetX - Whitehead? You know its not 2016 any more. Lots of better prospects out there, that RotoViz has helped us identify, like BJ Goodson and AJ Klein.

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