Draft Strategy

Going Down? MFL10 ADP Fallers – June 18th

It’s that time once again, the time in which we look at players on whom the MFL10 drafters have decided are about as popular as a tomato in fruit salad. I’m here to tell you if these three players are still worth picking up, despite their recent fall from grace.

We’re studying the period between May 20th and June 17th, a month in which the three players in question have heard their name called later and later in the MFL10 draft rooms around the globe.



It’s not a prodigious drop in ADP for the 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton, but it is noteworthy how much stock MFL10 drafters are placing in the reports regarding his health. Between May 20th and June 5th, his ADP seemed fairly consistent, with owners no doubt hoping that reports that the Panthers want Newton to pass more, run less, will not come to fruition.1. But after a June 5th announcement from Coach Ron Rivera that Newton would throw the following week, it has emerged that he didn’t. Newton is still only the eighth QB going off the board and is a prime bounceback candidate after a disappointing 2016 campaign. But it seems that drafters are worried about his lack of work so far this offseason. If he does indeed run even less than he did last season, even his current ADP could seem too expensive.



It really does seem that opposition to Joe Mixon’s quest to become THE guy in Cincinnati are disappearing faster than obstacles to the presidency for Frank Underwood.2 Jeremy Hill featured in the fallers way back in the May 7th article, and now Gio Bernard’s appeal appears to be waning fast. Granted, Bernard’s sudden lack of popularity is linked to his recovery from his ACL injury, with news coming on May 23rd that he was working to the side during OTAs. However, the news since has not been positive. The Bengals are reportedly considering holding Bernard out of regular season games until they are convinced that he is right. This means that Mixon will only have to fight off Hill for passing down work.

Breaking news – Mixon has JUST beaten Hill out for passing down work.

Bernard could offer something of a bargain when he returns, especially in PPR formats, but there exists the possibility that he may not have much of a job when he does return. At least, not in 2017.



Something of a late-round dart throw, rookie Zay Jones saw his ADP remain on an even keel at the beginning of our span of interest. This was despite his suffering a knee sprain on May 16th, reported two days later on the Bills official site. However, the Bills began to flirt with newly released free agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin after his release from the Chiefs on June 2nd, and it was around this time that Jones began to lose esteem with drafters. Ultimately, Maclin signed with the Ravens on June 12th, and as you can see above Jones experienced another ADP equalization. He returned to practice on June 8th. He is, at the time of writing, still No. 2 on the Bills WR depth chart. But the man in front of him, Sammy Watkins, seems to spend more time at the hospital than Dick Van Dyke’s Dr. Mark Sloan from “Diagnosis Murder.”3 The Bills don’t project to be a high-volume passing attack, but if Watkins were to go down, grabbing a team’s leading receiver at an ADP of WR66 could be something of a steal. But it’s a very long shot.

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  1. It wouldn’t really be a surprise if it didn’t, as the Panthers were preaching this gospel as far back as August 2014  (back)
  2. Spoiler warning, I’m at least two seasons behind with House of Cards, and if you ruin it for me before I finish binge-watching Stranger Things there will be trouble.  (back)
  3. Sseriously doc. Let the Police do their jobs, and focus on yours.  (back)
By Neil Dutton | @ndutton13 | Archive

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